Hopes, fears about Cabinet

Hopes, fears about Cabinet

By Jusuf Wanandi

JAKARTA (JP): The new Cabinet is Megawati's personal cabinet.
While she sought advice from all her advisers, (including her
party's board, her husband and others, such as senior politician
Frans Seda and her assistant Bambang Kesowo), she was the one
that decided on the structure and personnel. She received some
names from the political parties, but made her own choice from
the list.

This should immediately negate the accusation that she is
unable to decide on her own. It did take her two weeks to come to
the decision, but she has now formed a reasonable team composed
of representatives from political parties, including her own. She
needed to bring in political party representatives to get their
support in the legislature regarding law-making and the budget.

Her predecessor Abdurrahman Wahid, or Gus Dur, did not
seriously take this into consideration, although his party had
only 10 percent of the seats, compared with 34 percent for
Megawati's. Apart from politicians, however, Megawati also needs
professionals and technocrats, especially in the economics field,
to overcome her most immediate challenge: the economic crisis.

The immediate public reaction to the economics team has been
somewhat mixed. Her economics team consists of two technocrats,
namely Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti as coordinating minister, and
Boediono as finance minister, two from her party, namely
Laksamana Sukardi as minister of state for state enterprises, and
Kwik Kian Gie in charge of development planning. They form the
core of the economics portfolio.

There is some worry because Dorodjatun's training is not
purely economics, and he is not known to be a hands-on man.
Boediono, on the other hand, is a credible technocrat and has the
most experience in the bureaucracy of the four. Both are backed
by the technocrats who were under former presidential adviser
Widjojo Nitisastro. This gives a positive signal to the
international community, but is viewed with some ambivalence by
the Indonesian public.

Laksamana is excellent in the eyes of the private sector in
general, and from a domestic or international perspective. Kwik,
on the other hand, has a very controversial reputation and is not
trusted by big business, national and international, because of
his populist rhetoric and earlier controversial policies.

In addition, there is Minister of Industry and Trade Rini M.S.
Soewandi, who is also controversial. She is a businesswoman, with
a performance considered to be not too outstanding, and there are
fears that she might bestow favors upon her many business
partners. There is a greater worry about Minister of Manpower
Jacob Nuwa Wea, since he is a labor leader with a negative
reputation in the business world. He has to learn a lot about the
overall economic and business environment and the role of being a
minister. However, it may well be that he could lead labor to
become more cooperative instead of confrontational.

Finally, there is the worry that coordinating a bunch of
prima donnas among the economic ministers is no joke for
Dorodjatun. President Megawati has given him real coordinating
power. Nevertheless, as she is President after all, she might
have to intervene once in a while, if necessary, to make the
coordination work.

She was able to do so in the last few months of her vice
presidency while Gus Dur was thinking only about his political
survival. She took the necessary critical decisions in restoring
relations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) against the
wishes of the then coordinating minister. For that she adjusted
and restructured the budget in line with the IMF-supported
program, she postponed the amendment of the law on the central
bank, and she decided to remove fuel subsidies.

These were all brave decisions, although she did not get the
credit for them, because the media's attention was on Gus Dur's
survival efforts. The economic programs are obvious, and
Megawati's commitment and support are critically important
because only she has the authority to ask for people's sacrifices
in overcoming the economic crisis; especially given the above
shortcomings of the economic team, which might not completely be
trusted by the private sector.

The political security team is more compact and will be easier
to coordinate. Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono as coordinating minister
has some experience. Making decisions may not be his strength,
but he is capable of coordinating. His team is a relatively
strong one. Matori Abdul Djalil as defense minister might be the
most principled politician in furthering political reforms. The
public, including students and non-governmental organizations
(NGOs), might respect him for his consistency and principled way
of politicking.

The way in which he supported constitutionalism and democracy
by attending the last Special Session of the People's
Consultative Assembly, despite being censored by Gus Dur and
later being thrown out of his National Awakening Party and losing
the chairmanship for that, was definitely a "profile in courage"
that is exceptional in Indonesian politics. During the last years
of Soeharto he worked closely with retired servicemen in
establishing a movement for democracy. For that he has earned the
respect of the Indonesian Military (TNI). Because of those
qualifications and experiences, he is qualified to reform the
military and to get it back on its feet again.

Hari Sabarno, a serviceman, has been in the legislature for
some time and is an open-minded person. He was earlier
responsible for territorial affairs at TNI Headquarters. Since
home affairs nowadays will deal mainly with the implementation of
decentralization and autonomy, he should be capable of overseeing
this process.

Foreign Minister Hassan Wirayuda is a professional diplomat,
and is one of the brightest in the foreign service. Not only is
he well-versed in diplomacy, with an excellent demeanor, but he
also has an open eye for political realities in Indonesia. He is
the one who took the initiative to talk to the representatives of
the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) in Geneva with Gus Dur's support,
and crafted the cease-fire agreements with them. He also
initiated some movements to help turn GAM into a political force
in the future.

Since the Aceh problem is among the priorities of Megawati's
government, he definitely could assist in efforts to find a
political and negotiated settlement to the insurgency. During Gus
Dur's presidency, Hassan was the one who tried to hold
Indonesia's foreign policy on an even keel. This was definitely
not an easy job.

The appointment of A.M. Hendropriyono as head of the National
Intelligence Agency (BIN) could become a source of criticism from
human rights NGOs, given suspicions of his abuse of human rights
during his tenure as local commander in Lampung in the 1980s.
Adm. Widodo stays as TNI Commander until his retirement in
several months' time, and may be replaced by Army chief
Endriartono Sutarto. Both are respected for their very
responsible and constitutional behavior during the last political
crisis of Gus Dur's presidency. Gen. Ryamizard Ryacudu, now
Commander of the Army's Strategic Reserve (Kostrad), is expected
to become the new Army chief.

The immediate program of the political team will be Aceh, West
Irian and other regional disturbances, as well as the law and
order problems in other places. Aceh requires an immediate
solution because it has become nasty again, with over 700 killed
in the last seven months. A coordinator for Aceh at the
coordinating minister's office is a prerequisite for the
government to be able to pay constant attention to daily events
and developments there and how to respond to them.

A team of negotiators at the center, with a respected national
figure at is head, is needed, while on the Aceh side a group of
Acehnese leaders has yet to be identified. Some facilitation and
support should be expected from the regional and international
community, in the same way that Indonesia participated with
representatives of the Organization of the Islamic Conference in
negotiations with the Moro rebels of the South Philippines, to
achieve a peaceful resolution of that conflict.

In conclusion, the Cabinet is better than expected. Despite
some weak spots, it has generally received the support and has
the necessary expertise to succeed over the next two years.
However, Cabinet members, especially the economics team, must
recognize their weaknesses and do their best to rectify them.

In addition, most critical to restoring confidence in the
government is the selection of the attorney general. President
Megawati has asked for a few more days to make the selection.
This is understandable, but the end result must be the choice of
a credible person. If not, much of the effort by the Cabinet will
end up in frustration and failure.

The writer is a member of the Board of Trustees of the Centre
for Strategic and International Studies in Jakarta.