Hopes, fears about Cabinet

By Jusuf Wanandi

JAKARTA (JP): The new Cabinet is Megawati's personal cabinet. While she sought advice from all her advisers, (including her party's board, her husband and others, such as senior politician Frans Seda and her assistant Bambang Kesowo), she was the one that decided on the structure and personnel. She received some names from the political parties, but made her own choice from the list.

This should immediately negate the accusation that she is unable to decide on her own. It did take her two weeks to come to the decision, but she has now formed a reasonable team composed of representatives from political parties, including her own. She needed to bring in political party representatives to get their support in the legislature regarding law-making and the budget.

Her predecessor Abdurrahman Wahid, or Gus Dur, did not seriously take this into consideration, although his party had only 10 percent of the seats, compared with 34 percent for Megawati's. Apart from politicians, however, Megawati also needs professionals and technocrats, especially in the economics field, to overcome her most immediate challenge: the economic crisis.

The immediate public reaction to the economics team has been somewhat mixed. Her economics team consists of two technocrats, namely Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti as coordinating minister, and Boediono as finance minister, two from her party, namely Laksamana Sukardi as minister of state for state enterprises, and Kwik Kian Gie in charge of development planning. They form the core of the economics portfolio.

There is some worry because Dorodjatun's training is not purely economics, and he is not known to be a hands-on man. Boediono, on the other hand, is a credible technocrat and has the most experience in the bureaucracy of the four. Both are backed by the technocrats who were under former presidential adviser Widjojo Nitisastro. This gives a positive signal to the international community, but is viewed with some ambivalence by the Indonesian public.

Laksamana is excellent in the eyes of the private sector in general, and from a domestic or international perspective. Kwik, on the other hand, has a very controversial reputation and is not trusted by big business, national and international, because of his populist rhetoric and earlier controversial policies.

In addition, there is Minister of Industry and Trade Rini M.S. Soewandi, who is also controversial. She is a businesswoman, with a performance considered to be not too outstanding, and there are fears that she might bestow favors upon her many business partners. There is a greater worry about Minister of Manpower Jacob Nuwa Wea, since he is a labor leader with a negative reputation in the business world. He has to learn a lot about the overall economic and business environment and the role of being a minister. However, it may well be that he could lead labor to become more cooperative instead of confrontational.

Finally, there is the worry that coordinating a bunch of prima donnas among the economic ministers is no joke for Dorodjatun. President Megawati has given him real coordinating power. Nevertheless, as she is President after all, she might have to intervene once in a while, if necessary, to make the coordination work.

She was able to do so in the last few months of her vice presidency while Gus Dur was thinking only about his political survival. She took the necessary critical decisions in restoring relations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) against the wishes of the then coordinating minister. For that she adjusted and restructured the budget in line with the IMF-supported program, she postponed the amendment of the law on the central bank, and she decided to remove fuel subsidies.

These were all brave decisions, although she did not get the credit for them, because the media's attention was on Gus Dur's survival efforts. The economic programs are obvious, and Megawati's commitment and support are critically important because only she has the authority to ask for people's sacrifices in overcoming the economic crisis; especially given the above shortcomings of the economic team, which might not completely be trusted by the private sector.

The political security team is more compact and will be easier to coordinate. Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono as coordinating minister has some experience. Making decisions may not be his strength, but he is capable of coordinating. His team is a relatively strong one. Matori Abdul Djalil as defense minister might be the most principled politician in furthering political reforms. The public, including students and non-governmental organizations (NGOs), might respect him for his consistency and principled way of politicking.

The way in which he supported constitutionalism and democracy by attending the last Special Session of the People's Consultative Assembly, despite being censored by Gus Dur and later being thrown out of his National Awakening Party and losing the chairmanship for that, was definitely a "profile in courage" that is exceptional in Indonesian politics. During the last years of Soeharto he worked closely with retired servicemen in establishing a movement for democracy. For that he has earned the respect of the Indonesian Military (TNI). Because of those qualifications and experiences, he is qualified to reform the military and to get it back on its feet again.

Hari Sabarno, a serviceman, has been in the legislature for some time and is an open-minded person. He was earlier responsible for territorial affairs at TNI Headquarters. Since home affairs nowadays will deal mainly with the implementation of decentralization and autonomy, he should be capable of overseeing this process.

Foreign Minister Hassan Wirayuda is a professional diplomat, and is one of the brightest in the foreign service. Not only is he well-versed in diplomacy, with an excellent demeanor, but he also has an open eye for political realities in Indonesia. He is the one who took the initiative to talk to the representatives of the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) in Geneva with Gus Dur's support, and crafted the cease-fire agreements with them. He also initiated some movements to help turn GAM into a political force in the future.

Since the Aceh problem is among the priorities of Megawati's government, he definitely could assist in efforts to find a political and negotiated settlement to the insurgency. During Gus Dur's presidency, Hassan was the one who tried to hold Indonesia's foreign policy on an even keel. This was definitely not an easy job.

The appointment of A.M. Hendropriyono as head of the National Intelligence Agency (BIN) could become a source of criticism from human rights NGOs, given suspicions of his abuse of human rights during his tenure as local commander in Lampung in the 1980s. Adm. Widodo stays as TNI Commander until his retirement in several months' time, and may be replaced by Army chief Endriartono Sutarto. Both are respected for their very responsible and constitutional behavior during the last political crisis of Gus Dur's presidency. Gen. Ryamizard Ryacudu, now Commander of the Army's Strategic Reserve (Kostrad), is expected to become the new Army chief.

The immediate program of the political team will be Aceh, West Irian and other regional disturbances, as well as the law and order problems in other places. Aceh requires an immediate solution because it has become nasty again, with over 700 killed in the last seven months. A coordinator for Aceh at the coordinating minister's office is a prerequisite for the government to be able to pay constant attention to daily events and developments there and how to respond to them.

A team of negotiators at the center, with a respected national figure at is head, is needed, while on the Aceh side a group of Acehnese leaders has yet to be identified. Some facilitation and support should be expected from the regional and international community, in the same way that Indonesia participated with representatives of the Organization of the Islamic Conference in negotiations with the Moro rebels of the South Philippines, to achieve a peaceful resolution of that conflict.

In conclusion, the Cabinet is better than expected. Despite some weak spots, it has generally received the support and has the necessary expertise to succeed over the next two years. However, Cabinet members, especially the economics team, must recognize their weaknesses and do their best to rectify them.

In addition, most critical to restoring confidence in the government is the selection of the attorney general. President Megawati has asked for a few more days to make the selection. This is understandable, but the end result must be the choice of a credible person. If not, much of the effort by the Cabinet will end up in frustration and failure.

The writer is a member of the Board of Trustees of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Jakarta.