Hoodlums, intimidation 'feature in 1999 elections'

By Sri Wahyuni

YOGYAKARTA (JP): Herbert Feith was among a few foreign political observers who witnessed Indonesia's first multiparty elections in 1955, which many believed were the most democratic so far.

The writer of Pemilu 1955 (Elections 1955) spoke to The Jakarta Post, Tajuk and D&R reporters recently at his Bulaksumur B-1 home in the compound of his campus, Gadjah Mada University.

Question: Many hope the 1999 elections will be as democratic as the one in 1955. Your comment?

Answer: It is difficult to (predict) because of factors such as violence, the presence of hoodlums, as well as a continued influence of bureaucrats.

Both in 1955 and in 1999, pressures were, and are, felt in many places. For example, village heads are given the impression that their superior wants them to convince residents to vote for a particular party. In 1999, this is the Golkar Party, while in 1955 it was the Indonesian National Party (PNI). You could say that PNI (during the 1955 elections) expanded its network through the bureaucracy.

I don't dare predict how big an influence this pressure factor still plays today but it obviously exists.

Do you mean intimidation played a role in the 1955 elections?

In some places, there were always people who felt they were being intimidated by youth organizations of particular parties. In 1955, they were not called satgas (security volunteers or task forces), but there were, indeed, youth organizations whose job was to intimidate people into voting for certain parties. If ever there was an organization (then) whose conduct was like Golkar is now, it was surely the PNI.

So the present condition is similar with that of 1955?

You could say that, to some extent. We know there were three big religious forces at the time. The first was NU (Nahdlatul Ulama), the second the non-NU Islam, or you could say the modern Islam, while the third was the so-called Islam abangan or the syncretic Islam known as the Marhaens.

There was a sharp difference between the four winning parties from the other 1955 poll contestants. The four biggest parties were PNI, Masyumi, NU and PKI (the Indonesian Communist Party). The first three represented religious-based political groupings, while PKI was the representative of the abangan community despite support from some santri (Muslims) in some places.

Today, there's no PKI. It's quite possible Islamic parties, or parties led by figures of Islamic prominence such as Amien Rais or Gus Dur (Abdurrahman Wahid, NU chairman) will get more than 45 percent of the votes. In 1955, Masyumi and NU, plus PSII and Perti won 45 percent of the votes.

Is there a similarity between the groupings in 1955 and the ones that exist now?

Of course, except that we no longer have PKI. Those who voted for NU will now vote for PKB (National Awakening Party) or PPP (United Development Party). Some of the supporters of the old PNI or PKI will probably vote for the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan), some others for Golkar.

The reason ex-PKI supporters will support PDI Perjuangan is because the party represents a non-santri community. Those who are afraid (of being marked as PKI members), will vote for Golkar, but those who are not will vote for PDI Perjuangan. Those who become "more santri" will be more interested in PAN (National Mandate Party), PKB or PPP.

Fear is still an important factor in PKI patrimony?

It's quite possible, though it depends on the local condition. The numerous flags of PDI Perjuangan might have lessened the fear of (ex-PKI) fright. However, this does not mean they will automatically feel safe to vote for PDI Perjuangan. They might still think it would be safer for them to vote for Golkar. If they see their village chief, who was previously a Golkar supporter, openly support PDI Perjuangan, they might feel safer to vote for PDI.

It seems to me that although Golkar displays a much smaller number of flags, although it is being addressed with foul language, and is said to be the status quo force, it will still be supported by people who have not been affected by the reform movement.

Some people still ask "What do we need elections for? Didn't we just have elections two years ago? Shouldn't it be held every five years?" In their view, Golkar is the government's party that even in a pressure-free environment, they would still vote for.

You mean Golkar will still win?

In some places, it could be. This topic has become an interesting discussion among political observers. Some say Golkar will win a maximum of 10 percent of the votes, others predict at least 20 percent. I don't dare make a prediction.

And yet, Islamic parties that will win significant votes include PAN, PKB and PPP because each still uses the traditional network (of Muslim constituents) such as NU. Beside PAN, PKB and PPP, there are also PBB (the Crescent Star Party) and PK (the Justice Party) which, possibly, will get a few seats each (in the House of Representatives). Other parties are of no importance.

I regret that all of the 48 contesting parties have been given unnecessary status by being included in the KPU (the General Election Commission). Many of those parties represent nobody.

In 1955, only prominent parties were represented in the KPU- like institution. If I'm not mistaken, there were nine of them. Some of nine had no masses at all.

In what way should the selection of the KPU members have been done?

It was not selective enough. Had stricter criterion been employed, only 20 parties would be represented in the KPU. That would bar "adventurer" parties from being included. For instance, parties which have even more branches than currently allotted by the general election law.

Which parties do you think will win significant votes?

They will be PDI Mega (PDI Perjuangan), PAN, Golkar, PPP and PKB. There may be two or three other parties after them, namely PK and PBB. After them, I don't know. The Justice and Unity Party (PKP) of Edi Sudradjat may also gain some seats, especially in West Java.

What is your opinion about a possible presidential ticket of Amien Rais and Megawati Soekarnoputri?

I see theirs as the biggest reform parties and I'm happy that they made a joint communique with Gus Dur. I see them (Megawati- Amien) complementing each other, in the sense they may remind people of the dwi-tunggal (two-but-one) of Sukarno-Hatta (Indonesia's first president and vice president).

Sukarno and Hatta were rivals before World War I. Both embraced different orientations. Yet, during Japanese occupation, the revolutionary era and the first years of the independence era, they could work together very well.

Sukarno and Hatta complemented one another in the sense that one was from Java while the other was from outside Java. One had a strong grip of Islam, the other did not. Sukarno was a very good orator while Hatta was a diligent administrator who mastered various things, including law and finance.

Which is Sukarno and which is Hatta, in the case of the Amien- Megawati duo?

I think Mega is the Bung Karno and Amien is the Hatta, although the combination is slightly different. Mega is not as good an orator as her father but she certainly has strong support among the grass roots. Amien is best seen as a smart person ... in maintaining relationship with the outside world and also very smart in selecting skillful technocrats.

Is Megawati good enough for president?

Amien is, indeed, a more convincing politician compared to Mega. But it doesn't mean that Amien should be the president. Don't see the presidential position as the only important one. If we see the way Sukarno-Hatta worked, especially in 1948-1949, as a vice president, Hatta was more important than Sukarno in some cases. It was also Hatta who held the daily governance.

Sukarno played a big role in connecting the government and the grass roots. This could be Mega's contribution in this case.

What about the B.J. Habibie factor?

I don't think his position is that important. And yet, if Amien fails to reach a consensus with Mega, he probably still can coalesce with either PPP or Golkar. Of course, it would be easier for Amien to get in touch with other Golkar figures like Akbar Tandjung or Marzuki Darusman.

Which parties form the most suitable coalition?

Amien-Mega and Gus Dur, I think. If PPP joined the force, it would be even better. The essential thing is to present the vice presidential position in a way that will make Amien take it, as Amien has declared he doesn't want to be vice president. Of course, Amien will never be willing to become a Try Sutrisno, a Sudharmono or an Umar Wirahadikusumah (vice presidents in Soeharto's regime).

He could be a Hatta.

He surely could, but to create a Sukarno-Hatta-like structure needs a bargaining, a meeting, for example about who will be responsible for the formation of the Cabinet. This may become a big problem.

Is it possible to apply a coalition in the existing system? I think so. It may not be called a coalition but I think there is nothing wrong to name it an administration as a coalition. The most important thing is, borrowing Amien's terminology, power sharing. If the biggest party gets 30 percent of votes, or 35 percent or even 45 percent, it needs power sharing to form a surviving government.