Hong Kong faces three fault lines
The Nation, Asia News Network, Bangkok
A truly regional business center at the heart of Asia -- one of the most efficient economies in the world -- a thriving capitalist system that even Adam Smith would have recognized as closest to his vision -- a gateway to the lucrative Chinese market. Hong Kong has earned these encomiums but is now struggling to retain them. One of the places most visited by Thai tourists over the past 50 years and a second home for many of the leading Thai business people of Chinese origin, the former British colony is now facing major challenges on three fronts.
The first is its integration into the mainland, where it is under threat to be eclipsed either by Shanghai to the north or neighboring Shenzhen, or even both.
The second is the future of its foreign-exchange system under the Currency Board, which directly links the Hong Kong dollar and the well-being of the economy to the US dollar. This will not be sustainable in the long run in terms of either the future of Hong Kong as a regional business center or the question of the convertibility of the yuan.
The third is the political integration of Hong Kong under its official name of Special Administrative Region (SAR) of the People's Republic of China. The city is now being convinced, lobbied or even coerced to make "One Country, Two Systems" work in line with the thinking of the political leaders in Beijing.
All of the three could be regarded as fault lines in the development of Hong Kong in this next stage. If its policies are not properly thought out and articulated to the local and world business community, Hong Kong could be on a permanent slide into a lose-lose rather than a win-win situation with respect to China.
The first two aspects will be left largely to the market -- or the natural geographical development of Hong Kong.
Hong Kong will end up wherever the money moves to -- given its utmost efficiency and entrepreneurial spirit.
But it is its political future -- now looming under a poisonous debating atmosphere over the implementation of Article 23 of its Basic Law -- that may ultimately determine its future.
It is as if the ghost of Chris Patten, the last British governor of Hong Kong, haunts the debate as it turns very bitter.
Related anti-subversion laws under Article 23 directly affect the freedom of expression and civil liberties of those who live in, work in or visit Hong Kong. They also risk permanently undermining confidence in the place, say critics.
But supporters of the laws argue that it is a cost worth paying to make One Country, Two Systems work.
It means a steady political and legal integration into the system of mainland China, as part of a safeguard for stability in exchange for self-censorship and dealing with dissident groups such as the Falungong. This process would serve as a preparation for any future integration between Taiwan and the People's Republic of China.
It does not take a genius to know where the objectives of Beijing lie. But the entire episode could be better handled if Beijing stopped treating Hong Kong like a child.
Nor is it productive to trivialize the opponents of the draconian laws as having an "ostrich" mentality. An equal partnership in this high stakes game for Hong Kong would be a better guarantee that the fruits of business skills, which make Hong Kong what it is today, shall continue to benefit the One Country.