Hollow LDP victory

Whatever coalition government emerges in Japan in the next few days or weeks, it will be shaky at best, and very possibly short- lived. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) came away victorious from Sunday's election, but despite winning 28 more seats in the 500-strong Lower House, to take its total to 239, it is still 12 seats short of a clear majority and a mandate to govern.

Now Ryutaro Hashimoto, the current Japanese prime minister and LDP chairman, has several alternatives to choose from in forming a coalition government. He could go back to the Social Democrat Party (SDP), one of the two LDP coalition partners in the outgoing government, which holds 15 seats. Or he could turn to the reformist Democratic Party, which won 52 seats, placing it third behind Shinshinto (the New Frontier Party).

Neither is a very attractive proposition for the LDP.

The SDP and the New Party Sakigake, the other coalition partner in the outgoing government, at first glance seem the likely choices. But they are bound to hold grudges because the LDP's election victory came chiefly at their expense. The SDP's seats were halved to 15 and Sakigake only won two seats compared with nine it had in the outgoing House; the Shinshinto lost only four seats in the polls and finished second with 156 seats. Although the SDP and Sakigake are not in any position to demand huge concessions in any future coalition with the LDP because of their weak positions, the election has left them scarred, and they can, and probably will, make things difficult for the LDP.

A coalition with the Democratic Party is not any more attractive. The party was formed just a month ago by SDP and Sakigake dissenters who abandoned the coalition government because their demands for more vigorous political reforms were ignored. These baby boomers make unlikely bedfellows for the old guards of Japanese politics in the LDP. Even if they forge a coalition, they will make an odd couple where the governing would be difficult. if not impossible.

Another option for Hashimoto is to form a coalition by wooing discontented members from the Shinshinto and other parties, and independents. But even here, he will still have to make concessions to secure their lasting support.

Whichever option he decides on, the LDP will not be able to govern comfortably. Hashimoto will constantly have to make concessions to the chosen coalition partner, or partners, to keep his government intact. Once in government, these coalition partners could defect, or simply pull the rug from under the LDP at any time. That can only mean an unstable government.

Ironically, this was the very reason why Hashimoto decided to call a general election, one year ahead of schedule: to end once and for all the unstable coalition governments that Japan has had in the last three years.

He gambled on the timing, hoping that the strong Japanese economy and his recent success in ending a dispute over the presence of U.S. troops on Okinawa would carry the LDP on election day. It was a political miscalculation on his part, and possibly a costly one, not only for the LDP but also for Japan.

For, while the election in Japan has strengthened the LDP's position, the turmoil and uncertainties in Japanese politics that we have seen in the last three years are likely to continue, possibly with an even greater intensity than before. When set against the LDP's stated election goal for a strong and stable government, the election victory is a hollow one.