Hizbollah triumph vindicates, challenges Iran

By Paul Taylor

LONDON (Reuters): The success of Hizbollah guerrillas in hounding Israel out of south Lebanon vindicates Iran's patronage of the Shi'ite Muslim movement but poses new challenges for Tehran's Middle East policy, analysts say.

Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi flew to Beirut on Thursday to join celebrations of Israel's hasty exit -- and perhaps also to lay claim to a bigger role for Hizbollah in Lebanon's future.

"What happened shows resistance that is based on principles can impose difficult conditions on the occupier to force him to retreat in fear from the lands he occupies," Kharrazi said on arrival in Beirut.

Iranian state media lavished gleeful coverage on what they presented as the humiliation of the Zionist enemy by steadfast Muslim guerrillas -- and, indirectly, a black eye for Israel's patron, the United States.

President Mohammad Khatami telephoned Lebanese President Emile Lahoud on Wednesday to congratulate him and look forward to "the liberation of the remaining (Arab) territories occupied (by Israel)".

Iran has been relentlessly critical of the U.S.-brokered Middle East peace process, arguing that all Arabs were being short-changed in unequal negotiations with the Jewish state and that armed resistance was the only way to achieve their rights.

However, while Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei calls for Israel's destruction, Khatami and other moderates have said Iran would not be "more Palestinian than the Palestinians" or sabotage peace agreements that were acceptable to Arab states.

Hizbollah's triumph crowns what Paris-based Lebanese analyst Ghassan Salame called "Iran's most successful foreign policy venture since the 1979 Islamic revolution".

It has helped entrench Iran's claim to moral leadership of all the world's Shi'ites.

But experts say it also means Tehran is likely to lose its main proxy battlefield with Israel.

And it may face problems, and possibly tension with its ally Syria, in trying to convert Hizbollah's battlefield gains into greater power in Lebanon, where Damascus has 35,000 troops and pulls the strings.

Mustafa Alani, a London-based Middle East researcher, said he was told by a key Iranian government official that Tehran wanted Hizbollah to be guaranteed a major share of power in Beirut before it laid down its arms.

"He set out four Iranian goals: they want Hizbollah recognized as the sole legitimate representative of the Shi'ites in Lebanon, they want the Shi'ites to be given a share of power in Lebanese institutions commensurate with their size in the population, they want no disarmament of Hizbollah for at least five years, and they want Hizbollah to protect Lebanese territory on the border against Israel," Alani told Reuters.

He said that agenda, which other experts on Lebanon called unrealistic, was spelled out to him on a recent visit to Tehran.

If pursued, it could antagonize Syria, which backs a rival Shi'ite movement Amal, whose leader, Nabih Berri, is speaker of the Lebanese parliament, and which is hostile at home to Hizbollah's brand of Muslim fundamentalism.

Other sources suggest Iran has more modest aims for its Lebanese proteges and is aware of the risk that Hizbollah could lose support if it overplays its hand in its moment of triumph.

They argue that Iran is no longer actively exporting Islamic revolution but seeking rapprochement with its Middle Eastern neighbors and the West.

Hizbollah and Amal fought for ascendancy in south Lebanon in 1987-1990. The Iranian-backed group gained the upper hand but Amal still holds the only senior post allotted to Shi'ites, largely because of its Syrian patronage.

Giving the Shi'ites a bigger slice of power would challenge Lebanon's 1934 constitution, which divided roles on confessional lines at a time when Shi'ites were a smaller minority, as well as the Taef accords that ended the 1975-1990 civil war.

Although Muslims now make up a majority of the population and Shi'ites are the biggest Muslim group, the institutions are dominated by Maronite Christians and Sunni Muslims.

"Hizbollah will certainly have more power, but within the allocation for the Shi'ites, and Syria will try to protect Amal's share. They cannot trespass on the allocation for other confessions," said Nadim Shehadi, director of the Centre for Lebanese Studies at Oxford University.

Hizbollah was formed and trained with direct assistance from Iranian revolutionary guards after Israel's 1982 invasion and has been armed and funded by Tehran for nearly two decades, with Syria's acquiescence.

At one point, there were 1,500 Iranian revolutionary guards in Lebanon. Today there are none and Hizbollah is an entrenched Lebanese organization, but Iran continues to supply weapons and money, according to Western intelligence sources.

Since Israel is threatening to bomb Syrian installations in Lebanon if Hizbollah stages cross-border attacks, the sources believe Damascus will now close off those Iranian supplies.

Iran says its support for Hizbollah is purely humanitarian.

The sources say Hizbollah has trained some Palestinian Hamas and Islamic Jihad Muslim militants, giving Iran some ability to trigger attacks inside Israel and the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

Hizbollah has also blossomed into a social and educational movement, with its own radio and television stations, providing community services in place of a weak Lebanese state.

Iranian sources say Khatami and Kharrazi have encouraged this transformation, urging Hizbollah to prepare for the day when Syria and Israel might reach a peace agreement.