High stakes in Southeast Asia with regard to Beijing, Taipei rivalry
High stakes in Southeast Asia with regard to Beijing, Taipei rivalry
Kavi Chongkittavorn, The Nation, Asia News Network, Bangkok
For the first time since 1972, Southeast Asian countries are
facing a serious dilemma in juggling their relations with China
and Taiwan. The reasons are obvious. As its political and
economic clout grows, Beijing is trying to enforce the one-China
policy the region professes to adhere to. It has sent strong
signals that it will no longer tolerate mere lip service. On the
other hand, Taiwan's diminishing diplomatic recognition has
forced the island to pursue a "go south" policy and concentrate
on key Southeast Asian "friends".
These friends are Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand,
which share many similarities: They have received huge mounts of
Taiwanese investment, are close allies of the U.S. and Japan and
are emerging democratic and civil societies. More importantly,
their nationals form the crux of foreign workers in Taiwan. Thai
workers, the island's largest group of foreign workers, have
reached an all-time high of 130,000 out of 350,000 foreign
workers, followed by Indonesians and the Filipinos.
Vice President Annette Lu's trip to Indonesia is a good
example of Taiwan's latest moves. Indonesia was chosen because of
its long history of animosity towards China. Taiwan has US$12.8
billion of investment in 914 projects in the archipelago and is a
major importer of Indonesian natural gas. It was no surprise that
Lu pushed the trip through despite Beijing's attempt to stop it.
Taiwan said it was a huge success while Beijing called it an
absolute farce.
After Lu's trip, Taiwanese analysts and editorials urged the
government to put more resources into Southeast Asia. Last
weekend, Lu called on the international community to normalize
ties with the island by employing "dual diplomacy" like the U.S.
did by passing the Taiwan Relations Act after switching
diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979.
However, her initiative will unlikely take off. Apart from
Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand, Southeast Asian
countries are either extremely cautious in their ties with
Taiwan, as is the case with Singapore and Malaysia, or pro-China
like Burma, Cambodia and Laos. They know well the implications of
a falling out from the China-Taiwan diplomatic duel.
Of all the region's nations, Vietnam, once China's enemy,
stands out as Taiwan's new strategic partner. During the first
half of this year, Taiwan invested $131 million in 88 projects in
Vietnam, its highest investment in any Southeast Asian nation for
the period. Taiwan's policy-makers view Vietnam's
3,200-kilometer-long coastline as a strategic area "for potential
military activities in the South China Sea" and "a vital terminus
for trade".
Taipei has realized that meaningful relations with the region
are crucial to halt China's diplomatic offensive. Taiwan has
missed unique opportunities to cement ties beyond investment. The
island was slow to react during the Asian financial crisis and
did not offer much help either. Now in an economic slump,
Taiwan's investment has dwindled and along with its once powerful
cheque-book diplomacy. Taipei has been considering new
initiatives, such as a possible free trade agreement (FTA) with
Southeast Asian countries to counter China's planned FTA. It has
pitched its future mainly on support from the U.S. and Japan.
Taiwan needs to cultivate new, comprehensive relations with
Southeast Asia. Networking and building ties between non-
governmental and civil society organizations in Taiwan and the
region's emerging democracies should be a new priority. The
island urgently needs more Southeast Asian experts and people who
understand and can spread the word about the region. Taiwan has
hundreds of scholars on China, the U.S. and Japan but only a few
on this region. Moreover, its image in Southeast Asia is poor.
Taiwanese investors are often portrayed as selfish and
insensitive to the local environment.
But what would President Chen Shui-bien achieve by looking
southward? Is he just trying to make China lose face or does he
have something else in mind? Does he want to score the same coup
his predecessor Lee Teng Hui did during his "vacation diplomacy"
in 1994 and meet with the top Filipino, Indonesian and Thai
leaders? Will the same approach work again given improved
Chinese-Southeast Asian ties?
Bangkok so far has managed the dilemma through diplomatic
somersaults. However, as Thai-Chinese stakes increase and their
relations become more entrenched, such flip-flops will be harder
to execute. China wants to erode Taiwan's longstanding influence
here. But it will not be easy. Past bilateral ties were narrowly
focused on investment and trade. Taiwan still has a huge edge
with $10.5 billion of accumulated investment here, while China
still has a lot of catching up to do. But the potential is there.
The recent establishment of the Chinese-Thai Business Enterprises
Association by 50 Chinese companies signals Beijing's seriousness
about increasing investment in Thailand.
China and Taiwan share one common characteristic -- respect
for and close contact with the Thai royal family. Royals have
visited the mainland frequently.
Thailand is planning a series of events at the end of December
to commemorate the 30th anniversary of Taiwan's technical and
financial assistance to the Royal Project. Taiwan has been
assisting uninterrupted since 1972, three years after the project
was launched in Doi Aung Kang, Chiang Mai. Last month, Prince
Bhisatej Rajani, director of the Royal Project, was given a red-
carpet welcome in Taiwan.
Strange but true, Thai affinity for things Chinese is a new
battleground. Taiwan used to dominate the scene in culture and
language, including youth exchange programs. That is no longer
the case. The proliferation of pu-tong-hua, standard Chinese, has
led to an influx of Chinese teachers. Thousands of Thai students
go to China to study the language every year. Learning to play a
Chinese musical instrument is now in vogue.
Despite the Chinese Embassy's strong protest, Lin Fen-shi, a
member of Taiwan's parliament, known as the Legislative Yuan, met
Thai officials including Deputy Prime Minister and Labour
Minister Dej Boonlong during his three-day visit last week.
Although the issue of Thai workers in Taiwan has not yet been
politicized, unlike the Indonesian and Filipino workers, but the
Thai government must not be complacent.
Taiwanese dignitaries, by their attendance or absence, at the
year-end celebrations will be the weather vane of success for
Taiwan's "go-south" policy. Or, when push comes to shove, will
China's weight trump all?