High population rate threatens prosperity

High population rate threatens prosperity

JAKARTA (JP): High population growth and a widening social gap
remain a major threat to Indonesia, despite the county's relative
success in family planning and economic development, a respected
demographer has warned.

Aris Ananta, a lecturer at the University of Indonesia's
school of economics, told The Jakarta Post on Saturday that the
progress made by the family planning program would not bring
dramatic change to the size of the population or the distribution
of income for the next 15 to 20 years.

Indonesia currently has 193 million people, making it the
world's fourth-most-populous nation.

"Although population growth will decrease from 1.66 percent in
1995 to 1.23 percent in 2005 and further to 0.68 percent in 2020,
the absolute number of people in the country is still expected to
continue increasing," he said, adding that the population in 2005
was expected to be 222.8 million and that it would be 254 million
in 2020. He warned that the population growth would increase
demand for goods and services.

He said that since 1976 the family planning program had
successfully brought down the population growth rate to an
average of 1.6 percent annually. "If the family planning had not
been carried out, Indonesia's population would have been 237.2
million by 1995."

Aris, also deputy chief of the university's demography
institute, said that policy makers should carefully consider the
negative effects of high population growth.

He said he believed that the increase in population size would
worsen the unequal distribution of population, including the
concentration of the population in Java and Sumatra.

He predicted that 50 percent of Indonesia's population would
remain in Java, 20 percent in Sumatra, while the remaining 30
percent would be distributed among the other islands.

"The inhabitants of Java Island will increase from 107.5
million in 1990 to 144.5 million in 2020; in Sumatra, from 36.4
million to 60.7 million. Those in Kalimantan will increase to
16.6 million in 2020 from nine million in 1990 and (the combined
population of) Maluku and Irian Jaya (will increase) to seven
million from three million in the same period," he said.

He also predicted that the population density in Java and
Sumatra would rise from the current 813 and 77 per square
kilometer to 1,093 and 128 per square kilometer respectively in
2020.

"Kalimantan and Irian Jaya will remain sparsely-inhabited,
with a density of 31 and 14 per square kilometer respectively,"
he said.

He added that the unequal distribution of population would
mean some areas received more of the government's attention than
others.

He said the rapid economic development in Java and Sumatra
would accelerate the migration of people to the two islands.

"It is not surprising that pollution, traffic congestion and
'modern diseases' such as stress, stroke and heart attacks are
posing new problems in urban areas in the two islands," he said.

The 41-year-old professor, who got his PhD in economics from
Duke University in North Caroline in 1983, said that neither the
slowing population growth rate nor the rapid rate of economic
growth would have a significant impact on the widening social
disparities in Indonesia.

"They will bring only small changes to the unequal
distribution of income," he said.

Quoting 1993 data from the Central Bureau of Statistics, Aris
said that 43.87 percent of the national income was distributed to
almost 20 percent, of the population, or 37 million people; 41.5
percent went to the next 40 percent, or 74 million people; while
the remaining 14.61 percent of the wealth was shared among the
poorest 40 percent of the population, or 74 million people.

"Although the economy is continuing to boom, the distribution
of income in 2020 will be very different, because the high-income
people will also continue to improve their education and quality
of life," he said. (rms)