High expectations for new Syrian president

By Jack Redden

BEIRUT (Reuters): Bashar al-Assad officially became president of Syria on Monday, both supported and burdened by expectations he will reform the system he inherited from his father to quickly improve the lives of his citizens.

Even discounting the predictable official praise for Bashar, there probably is broad backing after 30 years under his father Hafez al-Assad for what is seen as a desire to cut corruption and modernize the country. But the hope of quick results means the 34-year-old eye doctor and comparative political novice has to produce.

"If he can improve people's lives, which is the only important thing in Syria now, he will gain leverage," said a western diplomat in the Syrian capital Damascus.

Syrians will get their first clear hint of that on Monday when he is scheduled to be formally installed as president. Bashar, who did not speak publicly during the referendum that he won as expected last Monday, is supposed to start his seven-year term by immediately delivering a policy speech.

There are areas where he could move quickly and visibly. In fact there has already been a loosening of the straitjacket that has bound the government's media monopoly. A senior television official was removed, reportedly because the stolid Syrian coverage of Assad's funeral last month contrasted unfavorably with that by the free-wheeling Lebanese.

More importantly, statistics the government previously either concealed or denied -- like the unemployment caused by rampant population growth -- are being announced by government ministers appointed this year under Bashar's influence. A cabinet shake-up is expected soon to remove more of the old guard who served his father.

Moves away from the state-dominated economy created by Assad have also been hinted at. Prime Minister Mohammed Mustafa Miro commented last week that Lebanese banks would be welcome to enter into joint ventures to end the government's stifling banking monopoly.

Tourism, where world-class historic sites are matched with non-existent hotel facilities, could easily draw investment. Telecommunications, only starting to modernize in the past year under the technophile Bashar, is also attractive. A consortium of regional investors, including Lebanon's billionaire Hariri family, announced its readiness on Friday to invest up to US$100 million in those sectors.

But deep reform of an economy that has contracted in recent years -- even as population roared ahead with growth of at least 3.2 percent annually -- will take time. It faces the obstacle not just of powerful individuals who benefit from the current situation, which often provides monopolies to those with connections, but a bureaucracy that is inefficient and frequently corrupt. It also carries unpredictable risks.

"It's like a house with too many termites in it," a senior diplomat in Damascus, said warning of the depth of change needed after three decades under one ruler. "It you take out all the termites, the house collapses."

There is no obvious alternative to Bashar and diplomats believe he is solidly in command. But the relief that has greeted the smooth transfer of power from father to son, after years of fearing Assad's death could trigger a bloody struggle for power, points to the unease that accompanied the succession.

Foreign Minister Farouq al-Shara noted to reporters as he cast his vote for Bashar last week that predictions of chaos on the death of Assad had proved unfounded and he believed the new leader was capable of overcoming the challenges ahead.

Syrian image-makers are certainly trying hard to portray a man tough enough to run a country of 17 million people who have known only dictatorship.

By all accounts Bashar is a pleasant individual, but public portraits are almost invariably unsmiling and officials would not provide any photographs that showed him exchanging kisses at the referendum polling station. A favorite image is of the doctor holding a clenched fist in the air.

A new poster appearing on streets across Damascus carries a drawing of Bashar in which he looks midway between his own age and that of his father, who died in June at the age of 69.

However, an attempt to portray Bashar as an older, more experienced leader will matter little to Syrians. The new president's position will depend on the speed and benefits of the reforms he brings -- he has a limited time to satisfy the high expectations that talk of change has triggered.

"It's not going to be an easy thing," said a diplomat. "It's his to keep or his to lose."