Heavy rains to fall later this month

JAKARTA (JP): The Meteorology and Geophysics Agency forecast Saturday constant rains in the southern part of Indonesia, mainly in Java and South Sumatra, to start falling between the third week of this month and early next month.

The head of the agency, Sri Diharto, told The Jakarta Post that the delay in constant rainfall in the areas was mainly due to a scrambling weather pattern in Australia, which was affecting the weather in Indonesia.

"The ongoing high air pressure system in Australia, which created a north wind -- which is dry and fast -- has blown away clouds being brought in by the west wind to Indonesia from Asia.

"Because of the fast speed of the north wind, rain clouds that are supposed to be in Indonesian skies are being blocked near the equator," Diharto said.

That was why rains continuously fell in the northern parts of Indonesia, but only sporadically in southern areas, he said.

According to the agency's previous forecast, constant rains were expected to start by the middle of last month.

"Actually, we are puzzled with this climatic condition. We work based on statistical information. From the weather station we have been monitoring the clouds hanging over Indonesian skies over the past few weeks.

"But suddenly the clouds were blown away by the fast north wind from Australia. With that, we have lost the chance to have rain here."

Diharto said the prolonged dry season in most parts of Indonesia, including Jakarta, was apparently caused by continuing effects of the El Nio weather phenomenon.

"But we're not sure about this either. To be honest, the weather is very unpredictable at this moment."

He said the intensity of rainfall this year would be much lower than last year.

"At this time last year, Jakarta was hit by a big flood. But this January, I don't think so. Average monthly rainfall is about 300 millimeters. The month will be normal and hopefully no floods will occur in the city," he said.

In several northern parts of Indonesia, such as Aceh, North Sumatra, East and West Kalimantan and Irian Jaya, heavy rains have already been occurring since October.

"For southern parts of Indonesia, the rain is still falling sporadically. Again, we don't know for sure if it's because of the continuing effects of El Nio."

El Nio causes a periodic warming of the water's surface in the Pacific Ocean. Combined with other atmospheric conditions, El Nio affects temperature and rainfall patterns throughout the world.

When asked about the possibility of creating artificial rain, Diharto said it was entirely up to the Agency for the Assessment and the Application of Technology (BPPT) to conduct the program.

"Our agency only gives recommendations and data regarding the areas which have potential clouds that could produce rain. It's not easy to create artificial rain. The rain would cost about Rp 30 million per day," the 55-year-old rear admiral said.

It takes a lot of clouds and high levels of humidity to create artificial rain.

"We have to seed the clouds by spraying certain chemicals to stimulate the rain, such as salt and urea. Then we have to wait for the right moment for the clouds to mature and for the rain to fall."

If areas in Indonesia do not have clouds, it would be impossible to create artificial rain, he said.

"That's why an area affected by the drought will remain dry until clouds cover the area... otherwise the chance for rain is almost nil."

Despite weather conditions, we have to be optimistic, he said. "Indonesia is a tropical country... so we have to have rain. Don't worry. We will release the latest weather charts this week and inform the public," he said. (edt)