Hashimoto's days numbered

Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto is almost certain to retain his job when parliament meets for a special post-election session this week. The question is: For how long?

A loosely cobbled together alliance between Hashimoto's dominant Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and two smaller coalition partners in the outgoing government has virtually assured that the prime minister will secure enough parliamentary votes for what would ordinarily be a four-year term.

However, major policy differences remain between the conservative LDP, the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the Sakigake party that may yet undermine Hashimoto's hold on power.

The differences are such that while SDP and Sakigake members have indicated they will vote for Hashimoto at the Diet (parliament) session expected to be held on Thursday, they have refused to join a new LDP-led coalition cabinet.

Last Wednesday, the three parties drew up a 10-point policy agreement on a range of issues, including long-awaited bureaucratic and fiscal reforms, and the next day put ink to paper to seal what all three agree is a shaky arrangement.

If it does hold, the next step for the parties is to draw up a blueprint by September next year to reorganize central government ministries and agencies.

Related bills are then to be sent to an ordinary Diet session in 1998.

The three parties have also agreed to a rise in the consumption tax, starting next April.

Security issues, like Tokyo's recently signed alliance with the United States that broadened Japan's mandate, may yet unravel the agreement.

Still, after almost two weeks of negotiations following the Oct. 20 election, Hashimoto has apparently managed to get a commitment from the SDP and Sakigake to support him at the special Diet session.

If the SDP and Sakigake do become opposition parties, Japanese politics will become highly unstable, because Japan would then have a minority government.

At the present moment, this does not augur well for Japan, bearing in mind that Tokyo is expected to play a leading role in the forthcoming APEC summit in the Philippines.

-- The Nation, Bangkok