Hardship, tensions create a powder keg

Hardship, tensions create a powder keg

By Asip Agus Hasani

YOGYAKARTA (JP): Political tension and economic hardships are
combining to create a powder keg of social disorder, unrest and
soaring crimes, according to noted sociologist Loekman Soetrisno.

The situation is aggravated by the lack of public trust in the
government and the Armed Forces, said the Gadjah Mada University
lecturer.

He spoke to The Jakarta Post at his office recently, and
pointed out that among the reasons why there was so much unrest
was because Indonesians still retained primitive ways of
expressing anger, such as arson.

Question: Social tension is rising as the general election
nears. What is your prediction for 1999?

Answer: We are facing very complex problems. People are
fighting to survive the impact of the economic crisis, while this
transitional government treats people like a bunch of morons, the
way the New Order regime did.

The agricultural sector, which absorbs most of our workforce,
is arbitrarily managed. A subsidy on fertilizers was abolished at
a time when farmers need it very badly. They (Cabinet ministers)
don't have empathy for farmers who live in hardship.

This year, we will face a food crisis, and our food dependence
on other countries will be more acute.

This leads to social vulnerability. Farmers' protests will
mark our social history. Riots and anarchic actions will be more
frequent as a medium to express people's anger.

Whether social tension will abate or escalate will depend on
the capability of the political elite and national leaders in
resolving those problems.

Q: The World Churches Council has categorized Indonesia to be
among the world's most intolerant nations in religion affairs?

A: It is true our society still has a low level of tolerance, but
there are more significant factors (than intolerance). Life is
getting more difficult every day, aggravated by political
friction.

The government should be more sensitive, for instance by
closing down prostitution centers, which often trigger riots.

On the other hand, it is true that our society tends to be
anarchic. People are still familiar with primitive behavior, like
burning. Fire is still the most favorite way to express
dissatisfaction.

This is probably the impact of the repressive New Order
regime. But let's stop wasting our time by continuing to blame
the New Order, the way we did when we blamed colonialism for
situations gone bad, and neglect problems confronting us.

Q: Several leaders, including Nahdlatul Ulama chairman
Abdurrahman Wahid, have warned of a revolution. Your comments?

A: I hope not. I have not seen indications of a possible social
revolution. I don't think we have reached that level, but the
current tension and conflicts in society need to be addressed (so
they would not worsen).

Q: Gus Dur (Abdurrahman Wahid) links conflicts and riots to the
still strong power of former president Soeharto and his
followers...

A: Let's say the theory is accurate, then the Armed Forces would
be obliged to investigate Soeharto and his followers. I wonder,
as it gives the impression that intelligence agencies are not
doing their job. If Gus Dur has strong evidence of Soeharto's
involvement, (President B.J.) Habibie must take firm action.

Q: But his administration is considered lacking in legitimacy, is
it possible for him to take stern measures?

A: This is a dilemma. Our nation is facing "twin suns": Soeharto
and Habibie.

Apart from his political power and money, Pak Harto's
(strength is in the fact that his) position as president has not
been legally revoked because the People's Consultative Assembly
has not annulled its decree on his election.

This is where we differ from the Philippines. The process of
power transfer from Marcos to Corry Aquino ran smoothly because
their people succeeded in expelling Marcos out of the country so
he could no longer maintain his power.

I think, Pak Harto must be expelled abroad to reduce the
complexity of the political reforms.

Q: Some people believe the general election will solve the
country's problems...

A: A fair and just general election alone is not enough because
our society is not a good sport. They want their own leader to be
the president and their parties to win the general election. In
this case, whoever is elected president will be automatically
rejected by other groups.

Q: How to solve the problem?

A: Public figures and political leaders must tour the regions and
talk to their supporters, giving them political education and
raising their awareness of a democratic culture. This is urgent.

During the New Order regime, the people never received a
political education from the political parties or from the
government. Our political culture was mass rallies, which often
ended in brawls among the supporters.

It would be better to let the United Nations or the United
Nations for Development Program (UNDP) organize the election, as
the government itself has planned to invite the UNDP to supervise
the elections.

As I said, we are sore losers. People pass blame when they are
defeated in an election. In the meantime, friction among the
people are already bad.

Q: Will the UNDP be able to appease the tension?

A: Yes, like in Cambodia, where a horizontal conflict is very
strong between the supporters of Hun Sen, Ranaridh and the Khmer
Rouge. The UN took over the election, although some problems
still remain. This is a realistic solution in the short term.
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