Hardship, tensions create a powder keg

By Asip Agus Hasani

YOGYAKARTA (JP): Political tension and economic hardships are combining to create a powder keg of social disorder, unrest and soaring crimes, according to noted sociologist Loekman Soetrisno.

The situation is aggravated by the lack of public trust in the government and the Armed Forces, said the Gadjah Mada University lecturer.

He spoke to The Jakarta Post at his office recently, and pointed out that among the reasons why there was so much unrest was because Indonesians still retained primitive ways of expressing anger, such as arson.

Question: Social tension is rising as the general election nears. What is your prediction for 1999?

Answer: We are facing very complex problems. People are fighting to survive the impact of the economic crisis, while this transitional government treats people like a bunch of morons, the way the New Order regime did.

The agricultural sector, which absorbs most of our workforce, is arbitrarily managed. A subsidy on fertilizers was abolished at a time when farmers need it very badly. They (Cabinet ministers) don't have empathy for farmers who live in hardship.

This year, we will face a food crisis, and our food dependence on other countries will be more acute.

This leads to social vulnerability. Farmers' protests will mark our social history. Riots and anarchic actions will be more frequent as a medium to express people's anger.

Whether social tension will abate or escalate will depend on the capability of the political elite and national leaders in resolving those problems.

Q: The World Churches Council has categorized Indonesia to be among the world's most intolerant nations in religion affairs?

A: It is true our society still has a low level of tolerance, but there are more significant factors (than intolerance). Life is getting more difficult every day, aggravated by political friction.

The government should be more sensitive, for instance by closing down prostitution centers, which often trigger riots.

On the other hand, it is true that our society tends to be anarchic. People are still familiar with primitive behavior, like burning. Fire is still the most favorite way to express dissatisfaction.

This is probably the impact of the repressive New Order regime. But let's stop wasting our time by continuing to blame the New Order, the way we did when we blamed colonialism for situations gone bad, and neglect problems confronting us.

Q: Several leaders, including Nahdlatul Ulama chairman Abdurrahman Wahid, have warned of a revolution. Your comments?

A: I hope not. I have not seen indications of a possible social revolution. I don't think we have reached that level, but the current tension and conflicts in society need to be addressed (so they would not worsen).

Q: Gus Dur (Abdurrahman Wahid) links conflicts and riots to the still strong power of former president Soeharto and his followers...

A: Let's say the theory is accurate, then the Armed Forces would be obliged to investigate Soeharto and his followers. I wonder, as it gives the impression that intelligence agencies are not doing their job. If Gus Dur has strong evidence of Soeharto's involvement, (President B.J.) Habibie must take firm action.

Q: But his administration is considered lacking in legitimacy, is it possible for him to take stern measures?

A: This is a dilemma. Our nation is facing "twin suns": Soeharto and Habibie.

Apart from his political power and money, Pak Harto's (strength is in the fact that his) position as president has not been legally revoked because the People's Consultative Assembly has not annulled its decree on his election.

This is where we differ from the Philippines. The process of power transfer from Marcos to Corry Aquino ran smoothly because their people succeeded in expelling Marcos out of the country so he could no longer maintain his power.

I think, Pak Harto must be expelled abroad to reduce the complexity of the political reforms.

Q: Some people believe the general election will solve the country's problems...

A: A fair and just general election alone is not enough because our society is not a good sport. They want their own leader to be the president and their parties to win the general election. In this case, whoever is elected president will be automatically rejected by other groups.

Q: How to solve the problem?

A: Public figures and political leaders must tour the regions and talk to their supporters, giving them political education and raising their awareness of a democratic culture. This is urgent.

During the New Order regime, the people never received a political education from the political parties or from the government. Our political culture was mass rallies, which often ended in brawls among the supporters.

It would be better to let the United Nations or the United Nations for Development Program (UNDP) organize the election, as the government itself has planned to invite the UNDP to supervise the elections.

As I said, we are sore losers. People pass blame when they are defeated in an election. In the meantime, friction among the people are already bad.

Q: Will the UNDP be able to appease the tension?

A: Yes, like in Cambodia, where a horizontal conflict is very strong between the supporters of Hun Sen, Ranaridh and the Khmer Rouge. The UN took over the election, although some problems still remain. This is a realistic solution in the short term. (44)