Habibie's tasks

I found Lance Castles's article "Will new govt heed Anderson's plea?" on March 15, 1999, to be strange in many ways. For example, he says that it is as certain as anything in human affairs that the next government will be a coalition led by Megawati and Amien Rais, but he gives no evidence for this.

Mr. Castles also believes that opinion polls prove that Amien rather than Megawati, will lead the coalition. This is also strange because in general, polls prove nothing. In Indonesia, many people live in remote rural areas on remote islands, polling organizations have little data with which to construct a reliable sample. It will be an amazing feat if any polling organization gives an accurate forecast of the vote for even a few of the 48 political parties.

It is also strange that he criticizes a Yogyakarta newspaper for the headline Golkar declaration attended by paid masses. It is well known that the Functional Group (Golkar) pays people to attend its rallies and that it distributes gifts to potential voters. This style of campaigning obviously suits Golkar as it is by far the richest party thanks to funds built up under Soeharto. But it will corrupt and destroy democracy and up to now, measures taken by the government to prevent it are inadequate. So any newspaper which spotlights the issue of vote buying (whether in a headline or a cartoon) is doing a great public service.

Perhaps strangest of all is the assertion that "it is difficult to put one's finger on anything that Habibie has actually done wrong." Does this mean that Habibie has not done anything wrong or, that he has done so many things wrong that it is hard to put one's finger on them?

It is Habibie's task to ensure the supply of basic foodstuffs to the poor. In this he has had some success, but it has been marred by corruption. It is not surprising that there is corruption at low levels because top-level attempts to eradicate and punish corruption have been derisory and this is Habibie's responsibility.

It was also Habibie's task to lay a foundation for economic recovery, essentially by following an IMF prescription, and in this he has had some success. But he delayed the recent bank closure announcement. Thus a process that was supposed to be transparent and reassuring became murky and perturbing.

It was also Habibie's task to prepare fair and free elections to elect a government with democratic legitimacy, and he has had some success. But he has also volunteered himself for election and this has had many negative consequences. Tension has been higher than necessary because of suspicion among the government's opponents that Habibie and Golkar will conspire to rig the election in their favor. This suspicion is entirely justified, based on two decades of experience and on recent events, including the tragic charade of last November's Special Session of the People's Consultative Assembly and the current vote buying.

Worse, Habibie may be elected. Even if Golkar wins only 25 percent of votes, the election system, its close relationship with the Armed Forces and its control over appointed Assembly delegates give it a good chance of rustling up the 376 votes necessary to put Habibie back in power. If this happens, democracy will have been travestied and Indonesia will be stuck with a government that has no more democratic credibility than the present one.

JOHN HARGREAVES

Jakarta