Habibie's credibility

Habibie's credibility

The botched handling of student protests that led to last
week's Black Friday has further eroded what little credibility
President B.J. Habibie and his government has. Yet, in the
absence of constitutional legitimacy, credibility is the only
thing that Habibie has going for him to govern this country.

Habibie's government has been dogged by questions about its
legitimate right from the start. Habibie was never elected
president. As vice president, he simply stepped in to the shoes
of the autocratic Soeharto on May 21. But since Soeharto was
forced to resign because of constitutional questions about his
reelection by the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) in March,
Habibie's own position as vice president and his current
presidency is therefore also highly dubious. His ascent to the
presidency may have been within the letter of the 1945
Constitution, but it was never with the blessings of the people.
Habibie is simply a president by default, and not by popular
choice.

Given the weak constitutional basis of his presidency, Habibie
has tried to make it up by winning the confidence of the people.
In the beginning, he managed to impress the domestic public and
the international community by releasing many political
prisoners, allowing press freedom to flourish, as well as
promising many other reform measures. At one point, he was even
accused of being a populist president because he was giving in to
virtually every demand people made. Most people were willing to
give him a chance to rule and bring Indonesia to its next
democratic general election. As president, Habibie may be
illegitimate, but at least he has credibility, or at least did
have.

Habibie's credibility, however, quickly waned when it became
apparent that he was abusing the people's trust. He introduced
antireform measures, including a regulation restricting
demonstrations, and is stubbornly opposed to opening up
investigations of corruption against Soeharto and his cronies.
Together with the Armed Forces and the dominant Golkar faction,
he bulldozed through his political agenda at last week's MPR
Special Session, in spite of massive opposition from the people.
He also lost credibility after he signaled, on more than one
occasion, that he did not rule out contesting the presidential
election next year. Virtually everything he has done, including
his populist measures, would be seen as an attempt to fortify his
grip on power and promote his chances of being reelected. This is
status quo politics all over again.

Habibie was grossly mistaken to expect that the MPR Special
Session would give him the legitimacy and credibility that he so
badly needs. Legitimacy can only come through a general election.
He only won formal legitimacy from the representatives of the
five MPR factions, who have no legitimate right to claim to
represent the people. On the question of credibility, the
shooting of unarmed students and protesters last Friday virtually
wiped out whatever chance he had up until then.

Without legitimacy, and with vanishing credibility, there are
now signs that the President is increasingly resorting to rule by
force and violence. In fact, the use of force is practically the
only thing that can keep him in power now. The police questioning
of several vocal government critics these past three days, on
charges of plotting a rebellion, and the use of armed force to
quell antigovernment demonstrations on Friday are symptoms of an
increasingly intolerant and repressive government.

Habibie is now facing exactly the same standoff that beset
Soeharto in the last months of his rule: a crisis of confidence.
In such a situation, he will find it increasingly difficult to
govern. We have reached a dangerous political impasse that could
plunge the nation deeper into chaos.

Habibie could go a long way in wooing back some of the lost
public confidence by renouncing, in public, any intention to
contest the presidential election next year. He would win some
support by firing Armed Forces Commander Gen. Wiranto as the
person most responsible for the bloody tragedy of Nov. 13.

These measures would not necessarily win him the confidence he
needs, but it would dispel public suspicions of his intentions
and quell the public's anger over the Black Friday tragedy.

But Habibie will have to do a lot more than this to resolve
the political crisis. At the risk of being accused of plotting a
rebellion, the proposal for a presidium government looks
increasingly attractive to break the current impasse.