Habibie's credibility

The botched handling of student protests that led to last week's Black Friday has further eroded what little credibility President B.J. Habibie and his government has. Yet, in the absence of constitutional legitimacy, credibility is the only thing that Habibie has going for him to govern this country.

Habibie's government has been dogged by questions about its legitimate right from the start. Habibie was never elected president. As vice president, he simply stepped in to the shoes of the autocratic Soeharto on May 21. But since Soeharto was forced to resign because of constitutional questions about his reelection by the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) in March, Habibie's own position as vice president and his current presidency is therefore also highly dubious. His ascent to the presidency may have been within the letter of the 1945 Constitution, but it was never with the blessings of the people. Habibie is simply a president by default, and not by popular choice.

Given the weak constitutional basis of his presidency, Habibie has tried to make it up by winning the confidence of the people. In the beginning, he managed to impress the domestic public and the international community by releasing many political prisoners, allowing press freedom to flourish, as well as promising many other reform measures. At one point, he was even accused of being a populist president because he was giving in to virtually every demand people made. Most people were willing to give him a chance to rule and bring Indonesia to its next democratic general election. As president, Habibie may be illegitimate, but at least he has credibility, or at least did have.

Habibie's credibility, however, quickly waned when it became apparent that he was abusing the people's trust. He introduced antireform measures, including a regulation restricting demonstrations, and is stubbornly opposed to opening up investigations of corruption against Soeharto and his cronies. Together with the Armed Forces and the dominant Golkar faction, he bulldozed through his political agenda at last week's MPR Special Session, in spite of massive opposition from the people. He also lost credibility after he signaled, on more than one occasion, that he did not rule out contesting the presidential election next year. Virtually everything he has done, including his populist measures, would be seen as an attempt to fortify his grip on power and promote his chances of being reelected. This is status quo politics all over again.

Habibie was grossly mistaken to expect that the MPR Special Session would give him the legitimacy and credibility that he so badly needs. Legitimacy can only come through a general election. He only won formal legitimacy from the representatives of the five MPR factions, who have no legitimate right to claim to represent the people. On the question of credibility, the shooting of unarmed students and protesters last Friday virtually wiped out whatever chance he had up until then.

Without legitimacy, and with vanishing credibility, there are now signs that the President is increasingly resorting to rule by force and violence. In fact, the use of force is practically the only thing that can keep him in power now. The police questioning of several vocal government critics these past three days, on charges of plotting a rebellion, and the use of armed force to quell antigovernment demonstrations on Friday are symptoms of an increasingly intolerant and repressive government.

Habibie is now facing exactly the same standoff that beset Soeharto in the last months of his rule: a crisis of confidence. In such a situation, he will find it increasingly difficult to govern. We have reached a dangerous political impasse that could plunge the nation deeper into chaos.

Habibie could go a long way in wooing back some of the lost public confidence by renouncing, in public, any intention to contest the presidential election next year. He would win some support by firing Armed Forces Commander Gen. Wiranto as the person most responsible for the bloody tragedy of Nov. 13.

These measures would not necessarily win him the confidence he needs, but it would dispel public suspicions of his intentions and quell the public's anger over the Black Friday tragedy.

But Habibie will have to do a lot more than this to resolve the political crisis. At the risk of being accused of plotting a rebellion, the proposal for a presidium government looks increasingly attractive to break the current impasse.