Habibie's chance for VP post still shaky: Expert

Habibie's chance for VP post still shaky: Expert

By Asip Agus Hasani

YOGYAKARTA (JP): Thirteen names have so far emerged as
Indonesia's next vice presidential hopefuls, but due to the
traditional secrecy surrounding the election of the second top
post, not many people know who has the most chance.

Among the names are incumbent Try Sutrisno, State Minister of
Research and Technology B.J. Habibie, Minister of Information R.
Hartono, State Minister of National Development Planning
Ginandjar Kartasasmita, Army Chief of Staff Gen. Wiranto and
House Speaker Harmoko.

Analysts have been having a field day discussing the
candidates and analyzing each one's chance of being picked by
Soeharto, who stands to be reelected in the presidential election
next month.

Ichlasul Amal, director of the post-graduate program at Gadjah
Mada University, believes Golkar will most likely nominate
Habibie, but that Try would have an even better chance if the
Armed Forces supported him.

The former dean of the university's School of Social and
Political Sciences discussed with The Jakarta Post recently the
topic on everyone's mind: Who will be the next vice president?

Question: What variables will influence the final decision?

Answer: It's clear that Habibie will most likely be nominated
by Golkar, but Try stands a greater chance if the Armed Forces
faction (at the People's Consultative Assembly) ... consolidates
and supports him. We know Golkar is more dependent on Pak Harto
than the Armed Forces (ABRI) is on him. I believe the remaining
question is whether Pak Harto will accept Try.

Q: So, ABRI remains the deciding factor?

A: Yes, but only if its faction is consolidated. However, if
recent indications that ABRI is not that united are based on
truth, then it's possible that its support will go to Habibie or
others with a civilian background. This stance may be taken in
order to prevent further rifts in the Armed Forces.

If there are indeed rifts in ABRI, Habibie has a better
chance. The other factions at the Assembly (the United
Development Party and the Indonesian Democratic Party) are still
too dependent on Soeharto (to decide for themselves).

Q: What do you think Soeharto's considerations will be when
picking a vice president?

A: I believe he will still place national security and the
(economic) crisis Indonesia is facing as utmost considerations.
If Pak Harto believes that choosing Habibie would worsen the
situation, he will reconsider.

This is Habibie's weakness: he is a symbol of technology who
places greater importance on technological achievement at the
expense of macroeconomic problems... His (other) weakness is he
is a big spender, while we know that state spending is now a
highly sensitive issue.

Try's weakness is that he is not the man to bring in the
reforms that this country needs. As far as we have observed, he
has never given birth to any brilliant ideas that would make him
a reformist.

Q: Who do you think stands the better chance then?

A: If the Armed Forces is united, there's no other name but Try
because he is a senior, experienced figure while other figures
such as Hartono would create problems within ABRI.

Q: What sort of problems?

A: First, there are people more senior than him (Hartono) besides
Try. For instance (minister of defense) Edi Sudradjat and (Armed
Forces commander) Gen. Feisal Tanjung. We can see it is not that
easy for ABRI to pick candidates from among their own.

Q: If Wiranto could become the next Armed Forces chief before
(the vice presidential election), would he stand a chance?

A: I don't think there will be (significant) changes in the Armed
Forces any time soon because that may rock the boat and create
the impression that ABRI is not united.

I don't see Edi Sudradjat as having any chance because even
though he is a visionary and able to initiate reforms ... he
cannot shake off certain groups in the military, while his own
group does not support him.

Q: Do you see any other civilian figures as having a chance at
the vice presidency?

A: It's hard to say unless there are significant changes in the
current paradigm that pits technocrats against technologists. Or
unless we can find figures with new ideas who are accepted by the
international forum -- such as foreign donor bodies in the United
States and Japan -- who are at the same time supported at home.
These figures are hard to find.

(Senior economist and former cabinet minister) Emil Salim, for
instance, is (a technocrat) supported only by other technocrats
such as (Soeharto's economic advisor) Widjojo Nitisastro. But
Emil's strength is, among other things, that he is accepted by
the Moslem community in general. Second, he was the Mr. Clean of
his period (when he served as minister). Third, he is also, I
believe, a person who could be accepted by donor countries and
bodies such as the International Monetary Fund.

However, whether Soeharto could accept him is another
question. (Soeharto is still the one to decide) despite a reduced
autonomy following the presence of the IMF (economic bailout
package) in the country.

Q: So many organizations have their own choices. Do you think it
makes it difficult for the President to choose?

A: The way I see it, it's because of the reduced autonomy on the
part of Pak Harto that certain segments within Golkar (such as
its cooperative wing Kosgoro) and other organizations.

(If Habibie is really widely rejected, including by investing
and donor countries as indicated by the market crash following
growing speculation that he is Golkar's most likely candidate)
then it means Golkar is in confusion and is trying to just shove
a handful of names at the Assembly.

I believe voting is unavoidable... but this is positive
because... then the Assembly would have a more meaningful role,
because it would then have to pick a president and vice
president.

Now the Assembly is dominated by Golkar and Pak Harto's
interests. But whoever is in the Assembly... they should be able
to be more democratic (and elect) by voting.