Habibie's chance for VP post still shaky: Expert

By Asip Agus Hasani

YOGYAKARTA (JP): Thirteen names have so far emerged as Indonesia's next vice presidential hopefuls, but due to the traditional secrecy surrounding the election of the second top post, not many people know who has the most chance.

Among the names are incumbent Try Sutrisno, State Minister of Research and Technology B.J. Habibie, Minister of Information R. Hartono, State Minister of National Development Planning Ginandjar Kartasasmita, Army Chief of Staff Gen. Wiranto and House Speaker Harmoko.

Analysts have been having a field day discussing the candidates and analyzing each one's chance of being picked by Soeharto, who stands to be reelected in the presidential election next month.

Ichlasul Amal, director of the post-graduate program at Gadjah Mada University, believes Golkar will most likely nominate Habibie, but that Try would have an even better chance if the Armed Forces supported him.

The former dean of the university's School of Social and Political Sciences discussed with The Jakarta Post recently the topic on everyone's mind: Who will be the next vice president?

Question: What variables will influence the final decision?

Answer: It's clear that Habibie will most likely be nominated by Golkar, but Try stands a greater chance if the Armed Forces faction (at the People's Consultative Assembly) ... consolidates and supports him. We know Golkar is more dependent on Pak Harto than the Armed Forces (ABRI) is on him. I believe the remaining question is whether Pak Harto will accept Try.

Q: So, ABRI remains the deciding factor?

A: Yes, but only if its faction is consolidated. However, if recent indications that ABRI is not that united are based on truth, then it's possible that its support will go to Habibie or others with a civilian background. This stance may be taken in order to prevent further rifts in the Armed Forces.

If there are indeed rifts in ABRI, Habibie has a better chance. The other factions at the Assembly (the United Development Party and the Indonesian Democratic Party) are still too dependent on Soeharto (to decide for themselves).

Q: What do you think Soeharto's considerations will be when picking a vice president?

A: I believe he will still place national security and the (economic) crisis Indonesia is facing as utmost considerations. If Pak Harto believes that choosing Habibie would worsen the situation, he will reconsider.

This is Habibie's weakness: he is a symbol of technology who places greater importance on technological achievement at the expense of macroeconomic problems... His (other) weakness is he is a big spender, while we know that state spending is now a highly sensitive issue.

Try's weakness is that he is not the man to bring in the reforms that this country needs. As far as we have observed, he has never given birth to any brilliant ideas that would make him a reformist.

Q: Who do you think stands the better chance then?

A: If the Armed Forces is united, there's no other name but Try because he is a senior, experienced figure while other figures such as Hartono would create problems within ABRI.

Q: What sort of problems?

A: First, there are people more senior than him (Hartono) besides Try. For instance (minister of defense) Edi Sudradjat and (Armed Forces commander) Gen. Feisal Tanjung. We can see it is not that easy for ABRI to pick candidates from among their own.

Q: If Wiranto could become the next Armed Forces chief before (the vice presidential election), would he stand a chance?

A: I don't think there will be (significant) changes in the Armed Forces any time soon because that may rock the boat and create the impression that ABRI is not united.

I don't see Edi Sudradjat as having any chance because even though he is a visionary and able to initiate reforms ... he cannot shake off certain groups in the military, while his own group does not support him.

Q: Do you see any other civilian figures as having a chance at the vice presidency?

A: It's hard to say unless there are significant changes in the current paradigm that pits technocrats against technologists. Or unless we can find figures with new ideas who are accepted by the international forum -- such as foreign donor bodies in the United States and Japan -- who are at the same time supported at home. These figures are hard to find.

(Senior economist and former cabinet minister) Emil Salim, for instance, is (a technocrat) supported only by other technocrats such as (Soeharto's economic advisor) Widjojo Nitisastro. But Emil's strength is, among other things, that he is accepted by the Moslem community in general. Second, he was the Mr. Clean of his period (when he served as minister). Third, he is also, I believe, a person who could be accepted by donor countries and bodies such as the International Monetary Fund.

However, whether Soeharto could accept him is another question. (Soeharto is still the one to decide) despite a reduced autonomy following the presence of the IMF (economic bailout package) in the country.

Q: So many organizations have their own choices. Do you think it makes it difficult for the President to choose?

A: The way I see it, it's because of the reduced autonomy on the part of Pak Harto that certain segments within Golkar (such as its cooperative wing Kosgoro) and other organizations.

(If Habibie is really widely rejected, including by investing and donor countries as indicated by the market crash following growing speculation that he is Golkar's most likely candidate) then it means Golkar is in confusion and is trying to just shove a handful of names at the Assembly.

I believe voting is unavoidable... but this is positive because... then the Assembly would have a more meaningful role, because it would then have to pick a president and vice president.

Now the Assembly is dominated by Golkar and Pak Harto's interests. But whoever is in the Assembly... they should be able to be more democratic (and elect) by voting.