Habibie or Harmoko

Habibie or Harmoko

Golkar has finally played its cards in the vice presidential
election game. The ruling political group has named its own
chairman Harmoko and State Minister of Research and Technology
B.J. Habibie as its chosen candidates for vice president in next
month's election. After months of indecision which kept the
nation in suspense, if not in the dark, Golkar has narrowed the
field down to these two men. Both are now frontrunners for the
number two post assisting Soeharto, who is almost certain to be
reelected as president for a seventh term next month.

As the largest political faction in the People's Consultative
Assembly, Golkar's vice presidential nomination carries a lot of
weight. Given that Soeharto is chairman of Golkar's powerful
board of patrons, one can be sure that Golkar would not have
announced its two candidates on Wednesday night without his prior
approval. Regardless of Golkar's motive in being the first
political faction to announce its nominees, it was a commendable
act, for it allows the public to scrutinize the candidates.

Constitutionally, it is the right of factions in the People's
Consultative Assembly, as representatives of the people, to
nominate and elect the president and vice president. But in the
spirit of democracy, the people should be allowed to have their
say on future leaders. Reactions in the coming weeks will reveal
which of the two men has the most support, and how much, if any,
public approval.

With all due respect to the 1,000 Assembly members, the
election of the vice president is too important to be left
entirely in their hands, regardless of the constitutional
position. The next vice president will be expected to play a part
well beyond the largely ceremonial role of the previous five vice
presidents. The aging Soeharto (he will turn 77 in June) is
expected to cut his state activities down to the most essential,
as he has done over the past few weeks, delegating more work to
his vice president.

There is even speculation that the next vice president may
succeed Soeharto, if he steps down at the end of the next five-
year term, or halfway through it. Even if talk of this is wrong,
or a premature conclusion, the elected vice president will
certainly become a potential successor to Soeharto.

Although Golkar has played its cards, the outcome of the vice
presidential election is by no means definite. There could still
be surprises, and neither of its candidates will necessarily be
elected to the post.

There is the question of Soeharto's choice of vice president.
He has resisted pressures to state his preference for a running
mate, believing it would be constitutionally wrong to do so
before being formally nominated by the Assembly, let alone
elected. But an assembly decree requiring the vice president to
be able to work closely with the elected president, virtually
hands over the final say on who occupies the post to the elected
president. In the end, the convention of the past 30 years will
be followed, the Assembly proposes, and Soeharto disposes.

The other four Assembly factions, including the powerful Armed
Forces (ABRI) have yet to name their candidates. Although ABRI
and Golkar have worked together in securing Soeharto's reelection
for the last 30 years, there has at times been discords between
the two powerful groupings over the choice of vice president. In
1993 ABRI announced its nomination of Gen. Try Sutrisno for vice
president, preempting both Golkar and, fait accompli, Soeharto.
Outgoing ABRI Commander Gen. Feisal Tanjung said yesterday his
faction already has a candidate in mind but will not announce his
or her name. He indicated that the military had no problem with
non-military candidates. Both Harmoko and Habibie are civilians.

The onus is now on ABRI, given its influential position in the
Assembly, to publicly announce its candidate and subject he or
she to public scrutiny. Golkar and ABRI are the real players in
this game. This is not a poker game because the outcome is more
or less predetermined, but the stakes -- the future and
prosperity of the nation -- are so high that both had better play
their cards right.