Habibie for VP: Victory for Soeharto

Habibie for VP: Victory for Soeharto

State Minister for Research and Technology B.J. Habibie has
emerged as the sole candidate for vice president in the 1998-2003
term, weeks before the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) is
due to meet. Riswandha Imawan, a lecturer in political science at
Gadjah Mada University in Yogyakarta, discusses the procedure for
his nomination and predicts future political development.

Question: Do you consider the proceedings which lead to
Minister Habibie's nomination as the sole candidate for the vice
presidency to be democratic?

Riswandha: The nomination does not reflect democracy because
it was made outwith the General Session of the MPR. Democratic
procedures would require the Assembly's five factions to collect
ideas from the people on the problems faced by the nation and
criteria for a vice president capable of solving these problems,
before asking would-be candidates to disclose their visions. The
Assembly is supposed to decide the candidates at its General
Session.

Q: A few weeks ago, some factions suggested several candidates
for vice president but finally came up with Habibie as the sole
candidate. What is your comment?

R: I think Habibie is the most suitable candidate for the
political elite of this country, who believe that Indonesia, when
entering the 21st century, will have to improve its mastery of
technology if it wants to grab a major share of the world market.
Furthermore, Habibie's close personal relations with the sole
presidential candidate, the incumbent President Soeharto, also
helped to determined his nomination.

Q: Do you consider the nomination of Habibie, who is also
chairman of the Indonesian Moslem Intellectuals Association
(ICMI), a victory for Soeharto or Moslem society?

R: It is a win-win situation for both Soeharto and the Moslem
community (who make up the majority of the country's population).
It is a victory for President Soeharto, who has groomed Habibie
-- Soeharto has given him some 26 strategic positions. It is also
a victory for the Moslems, from whom the government needs
political support.

Q: Rumors suggest that the nomination goes in tandem with
Germany's offer to help Indonesia overcome its private sector
debt problem and to support the country's aircraft industry, PT
IPTN. What is your comment?

R: I also heard such a rumor and it has almost become reality. It
is merely a logical consequence of Habibie's close relations with
German leaders. German chancellor Helmut Kohl, for example, once
said "Habibie is my brother". Germany, where Habibie was
educated, surely does not want to see the failure of IPTN, a pet
project of Habibie's.

Q: Do you see a possibility that former cabinet member Emil
Salim, who has the support of some prominent Indonesians, will be
nominated as a vice presidential candidate at the General Session
of the MPR?

R: The chance is slim because none of the factions have indicated
his nomination. Support for Emil reflects a conflict among elite
people, but not among laymen, who are now struggling to obtain
adequate supplies of essential commodities.

Q: Do you think Habibie will be able to cooperate with the next
cabinet's economic team?

R: That will be a problem because Habibie's thoughts on the
economy differ from those of a number of prominent economists.
Actually Indonesia needs three vice presidents to overcome its
three major problems -- economy, technology and national unity --
but the constitution does not allow for this. However, Indonesia
can have a triumvirate of Habibie (for technology development),
an economic minister, for example businessman Tanri Abeng, and a
military leader, probably the Armed Forces chief General Wiranto.

Q: Do you think Habibie has the capacity to lead the country in
the event of Soeharto being forced to terminate his presidency
mid-term?

R: That question is difficult to answer. If Soeharto resigns in
the middle of his next term, all possibilities, including
political conflict, are open. If Habibie then automatically
becomes president and supreme commander of the Armed Forces, will
the Armed Forces accept him? Habibie on Sept. 26, 1996, made a
speech that offended military officials and his decision to
purchase used naval vessels from Germany was not widely accepted.
So, the triumvirate may become an arena of political conflicts if
Soeharto does not see out his full term. A political theory says
that the strongest rival in politics is the closest alliance.

Q: What job do you think Soeharto will assign Habibie to?

R: I think it is high time for the MPR to prescribe the job for a
vice president because the next cabinet will bring the nation
into the 21st century. The MPR should not let the president
decide the job description for the vice president as he used to.
It can, for example, assign the next vice president to improve
efficiency in the bureaucracy and rid it of the practices of
collusion and corruption.

Q: Will Habibie bring his men into the next cabinet?

R: I don't think it possible for Habibie to bring ICMI members
into the cabinet. Soeharto, as usual, will accommodate people
from various parties to keep a political balance and the cabinet
will be a working team. But the cabinet will surely not include
people who have thus far been critical of the government. (riz)