Gus Dur's optimism

The strong optimism that President Abdurrahman Wahid conveyed in his New Year's message contrasts sharply with the gloom and doom predictions that many other top politicians and political observers believe are in store for Indonesia in 2001.

Both camps essentially use the same turn of events and indicators from the recently ended year 2000 to come out with opposite conclusions. This is one of those debates about a half- filled glass. Optimists, like Gus Dur, say it is half full, and pessimists say it is half empty.

In his speech greeting the New Year, the President says he is hopeful that Indonesia's economy will emerge stronger in 2001, having shown an impressive recovery in the previous 12 months. He cited the better-than-expected gross domestic product (GDP) growth of five percent, and the record $50 billion export earnings in 2000 as grounds for optimism.

The doomsayers have acknowledged these indicators, but they have rightly pointed out that unless investment picks up, what little recovery that has been achieved in the past year would not be sustainable. Given Indonesia's continuing political instability, few people, whether local or foreign, would dare to make huge investment commitments. This instability is not likely to go away, at least not in the first few months of 2001, given the added uncertainties about the implementation of the regional autonomy policy on Jan. 1.

The President's optimism on the political front is even far less grounded than his predictions for the economy in 2001. The President's confidence that problems in Aceh and Irian Jaya would be resolved because negotiations are about to begin with the separatist or pro-referendum camps in the two troubled provinces contradict with what we find in the field, that in fact tension has been heightening in recent weeks. With the positions of the government vis-a-vis the separatist camps in Aceh and Irian Jaya still a gulf apart, it is too premature or perhaps even too naive to suggest that the problems would soon be over. The President in his speech did not even bother to spell out how he hoped to end the bloody conflict between Muslims and Christians in Maluku, which is entering its third year later this month.

In fact, the absence of any game plan or a clear road map has characterized most policies and goals of the present administration. Had the President been clearer on his intentions and how he hoped to achieve them, more people in this country would probably have shared his strong sense of optimism.

Yet, it was a speech that the President had to make in order to inject a greater sense of self-confidence, if not among the nation, at least within his own administration. The last thing people in this country need is to start the new year and the new millennium on such a depressing note as many doomsayers would have us believe. If anyone could invigorate the spirit of the people in this country, it must indeed be the President.

It is one thing to inject a dose of optimism but completely another to give false hopes, or even worse, to deceive the people. We seem to be getting a lot of that lately. A case in point was Abdurrahman's revelation last week that Hutomo Mandala Putra -- the son of former president Soeharto and a corruption fugitive -- was arrested by the police and then managed to flee was so unbelievable that even the police were quick to distance themselves from the President.

In fact, much of the public's pessimism found today has been grounded not so much on policy failures as on the lack of firm and effective leadership in government, of which the President is the most important but by no means the only important figure.

The seemingly endless petty bickering among the nation's political elite, particularly between the executive and the legislative branches, has become something of a joke.

Most people would have laughed out loud if these rows did not have an impact on their lives. They have and badly. To borrow the phrase of a New York Times' columnist, Indonesia last year veered into a messy state, a condition where everything seems to stand still because our leaders are fighting each other over seemingly trivial matters.

This lack of confidence in the government's ability to lead, more than anything else, has been the source of much of the pessimism found among the people in this country today. Contrast this to the vigor and optimism that we found ourselves in when we started the year 2000. If our leaders, including President Abdurrahman, could for once concentrate on getting this nation back on its feet again, there is no reason why the nation should not share the optimism that he exuded on New Year's Eve.