Gus Dur's optimism
Gus Dur's optimism
The strong optimism that President Abdurrahman Wahid conveyed
in his New Year's message contrasts sharply with the gloom and
doom predictions that many other top politicians and political
observers believe are in store for Indonesia in 2001.
Both camps essentially use the same turn of events and
indicators from the recently ended year 2000 to come out with
opposite conclusions. This is one of those debates about a half-
filled glass. Optimists, like Gus Dur, say it is half full, and
pessimists say it is half empty.
In his speech greeting the New Year, the President says he is
hopeful that Indonesia's economy will emerge stronger in 2001,
having shown an impressive recovery in the previous 12 months. He
cited the better-than-expected gross domestic product (GDP)
growth of five percent, and the record $50 billion export
earnings in 2000 as grounds for optimism.
The doomsayers have acknowledged these indicators, but they
have rightly pointed out that unless investment picks up, what
little recovery that has been achieved in the past year would not
be sustainable. Given Indonesia's continuing political
instability, few people, whether local or foreign, would dare to
make huge investment commitments. This instability is not likely
to go away, at least not in the first few months of 2001, given
the added uncertainties about the implementation of the regional
autonomy policy on Jan. 1.
The President's optimism on the political front is even far
less grounded than his predictions for the economy in 2001. The
President's confidence that problems in Aceh and Irian Jaya would
be resolved because negotiations are about to begin with the
separatist or pro-referendum camps in the two troubled provinces
contradict with what we find in the field, that in fact tension
has been heightening in recent weeks. With the positions of the
government vis-a-vis the separatist camps in Aceh and Irian Jaya
still a gulf apart, it is too premature or perhaps even too naive
to suggest that the problems would soon be over. The President in
his speech did not even bother to spell out how he hoped to end
the bloody conflict between Muslims and Christians in Maluku,
which is entering its third year later this month.
In fact, the absence of any game plan or a clear road map has
characterized most policies and goals of the present
administration. Had the President been clearer on his intentions
and how he hoped to achieve them, more people in this country
would probably have shared his strong sense of optimism.
Yet, it was a speech that the President had to make in order
to inject a greater sense of self-confidence, if not among the
nation, at least within his own administration. The last thing
people in this country need is to start the new year and the new
millennium on such a depressing note as many doomsayers would
have us believe. If anyone could invigorate the spirit of the
people in this country, it must indeed be the President.
It is one thing to inject a dose of optimism but completely
another to give false hopes, or even worse, to deceive the
people. We seem to be getting a lot of that lately. A case in
point was Abdurrahman's revelation last week that Hutomo Mandala
Putra -- the son of former president Soeharto and a corruption
fugitive -- was arrested by the police and then managed to flee
was so unbelievable that even the police were quick to distance
themselves from the President.
In fact, much of the public's pessimism found today has been
grounded not so much on policy failures as on the lack of firm
and effective leadership in government, of which the President is
the most important but by no means the only important figure.
The seemingly endless petty bickering among the nation's
political elite, particularly between the executive and the
legislative branches, has become something of a joke.
Most people would have laughed out loud if these rows did not
have an impact on their lives. They have and badly. To borrow the
phrase of a New York Times' columnist, Indonesia last year veered
into a messy state, a condition where everything seems to stand
still because our leaders are fighting each other over seemingly
trivial matters.
This lack of confidence in the government's ability to lead,
more than anything else, has been the source of much of the
pessimism found among the people in this country today. Contrast
this to the vigor and optimism that we found ourselves in when we
started the year 2000. If our leaders, including President
Abdurrahman, could for once concentrate on getting this nation
back on its feet again, there is no reason why the nation should
not share the optimism that he exuded on New Year's Eve.