Gus Dur vs 'the Green Dragon'

By Nuruddin Amin

JAKARTA (JP): The existence of intelligence operations between political parties has been a rumor for some time. The Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) conferences of both 1994 and 1995, and the internal strife of the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI) were subject to the rumors. The intelligence operations were said to have put into motion the Red Dragon and the Green Dragon.

It is hard to know who were behind these operations. Information on high-level political behavior is usually closely guarded, although it is always reflected by the political event that has taken place. There are usually two things that can be focused in the context of current political violence.

First, intelligence operations are linked to the conflict of multipolar power elite interests. The military, bureaucratic, Islamic and other elite groups are not on a single power line. Various factions exist in the political groups. These factions interact in a multipolar political collaboration.

A certain political event can be a political project of a multipolar collaboration. It is hard to detect the actor behind the event, because this type of political collaboration is very unstable. There is a great possibility that responsibility will be pushed onto others and cheating among factions may shift political alliances in a very short time.

Second, the case of the Red Dragon and the Green Dragon was linked to rumors that Megawati Soekarnoputri and Abdurrahman Wahid, who is popularly known as Gus Dur, were seen as troublemakers for the political mechanism created toward the national succession. Political elite factions are interested in the succession process which will take place through the 1998 People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) meeting.

Megawati is a symbol of change and people power, while Gus Dur through his concept of Khittah Nahdliyyah (basic principles of NU), is deemed to make the jama'ah nahdliyyah (NU members) the basis of an efficient civil society. These political signs endanger the status quo because of the capability of the two figures to move the forces of grassroots politics.

The process of unsettling Megawati through the Red Dragon operation took place smoothly despite people's strong resistance to maintain commitment to the eldest daughter of the late president Sukarno who is said to be at the helm of the future national leadership. It was different with the Green Dragon operation, which saw every effort to unseat Gus Dur. But his authority and political legitimacy have taken root, covering NU, intellectual circles, activists, NGOs, and religious circles of all faiths. It is this authority and political legitimacy that a grand-scale political scenario tries to tear into tatters.

If it is true that the Situbondo and Tasikmalaya riots were linked to the Green Dragon operation, there was apparently a political conspiracy behind the grand scenario, which has various targets. The targets point to which political factions' collaboration were behind the current political violence. There are at least three identifiable targets.

First, President Soeharto's power is a target. Political violence in various regions including the capital city, which includes elements of religion and race is a distant target to delegitimatize the President's power by creating political instability until the general election and the People's Consultative Assembly meeting. This political violence is in protest against the long repression, the social, political and economic disparities which have become very acute and the demands for accommodating certain political factions.

It would be naive to say that political violence in a number of provinces was only spontaneous religious, racial or ethnic ruptures. The pattern of the mass movements, the issues raised and the targets of violence strongly indicate long-term political engineering. Accurate reading of the political symptoms show that political violence will continue and accompany the most sacred political ritual: the 1997 general election and the 1998 People's Consultative Assembly meeting. It is fairly certain that national political instability targets Soeharto's power. If this analysis is correct, it is only a result of the competition of the second- layer political elite.

Second, the basis of ICMI's power is a target. The Islamization of political discourse on a wide scale in the past decade has made a number of political elite factions feel oppressively uncomfortable. It is a public secret that the political elite of the pre-1980s was dominated by the first political generation based on nationalist-secular and abangan (nominal Moslem) circles established in alliance with the old equilibrium. When things shifted toward the establishment of the new equilibrium based on modernist Moslem circles, tensions arose between the second political generation and the first political generation.

It is likely that political violence combined with religious and racial issues are part of this tension. This tension can be explained from two perspectives.

The theological perspective says there are still religious and racial prejudices which are not clear between the first and second political generations.

The economic and political perspective says a sharp disparity exists between the two groups. The tension reached its momentum with the establishment of a new equilibrium dominated by the second political generation from modernist Moslem circles. If this logic is valid, ICMI can become a target and a scapegoat.

Third, Gus Dur's power base is a target. As a political troublemaker and a traditional Moslem power exponent who has been alienated from the power elite, there is enough reason for Gus Dur and his power base to become a target. Given the rupture of the old equilibrium and the tension with the new equilibrium, Gus Dur as the political leader of the traditional Moslem group (third political generation), has limited access to the formal power and has an alliance with the first political generation.

This alliance of power then obtained relevance through two factors. When the second generation modernist Moslems held power through political representation, it was considered boasting by traditionalist Moslems, so the third political generation obtained a point of interest with the first political generation to set up an alliance.

The power alliance also met on issues of democracy, pluralism and inter-religious dialog. At the point targets were released, traditional Moslems (NU) were considered targets of political violence given the elements of religion and race.

This may help in determining what interest and who is behind the current spate of political violence. Of course, the answer is never black and white. The hostility between Gus Dur and Adi Sasono on the mastermind behind the Tasikmalaya riot points to a greater political scenario. But on the other hand, Gus Dur apparently has a strong wish to save NU members from a political game full of camouflage. It is hoped Gus Dur will not be trapped in a political scenario outside himself.

The writer is a member of the Institute of Islamic and Social Studies and secretary of the provincial branch of Nahdlatul Ulama in Yogyakarta.

Window: The process of unsettling Megawati through the Red Dragon operation took place smoothly despite people's strong resistance to maintain commitment...