Greed for power threatens Ivory Coast, Guinea

By Michael Bitala

MUNICH (DPA): You don't have to be a pessimist to believe that two more West African states might be about to sink into chaos, and maybe even war, in the next few weeks. The reports coming from the area do not leave much room for hope.

In Guinea, for example, President Lansana Conte has called upon his compatriots to hunt down all the refugees from neighboring Liberia and Sierra Leone and then lock them up. He has claimed these refugees are responsible for the recent border skirmishes involving hostile rebels.

It is true that fighting has occurred repeatedly in border areas. What is just as certain, however, is that Liberian and Sierra Leonean families who have been living in the capital Conakry for up to 10 years have nothing to do with the distant clashes in the bush. Groups of youths and the state security forces have been harrying them all the same.

The real motive behind the president's declarations is that Conte wants to mobilize public opinion against foreign refugees. His main rival, opposition leader Alpha Conde, has been charged with cooperating with enemy rebel groups from Liberia: an absurd accusation, according to all observers.

Condemnation from the international community, however, achieved nothing, and Conde was sentenced to five years' imprisonment earlier this month.

Predictably enough, Liberia has not taken these developments in Guinea lying down, and so far President Charles Taylor has done more than just make idle threats. His troops have surrounded the Guinean embassy in Monrovia, and he has announced that all means will be used to prevent the persecution of Liberian refugees in neighboring Guinea.

In addition, heavy fighting has been reported along the border dividing Guinea and Sierra Leone: the weekend's clashes involved Guinean government forces and Sierra Leonean rebel groups.

Instead of trying to find a peaceful solution to the escalating conflict, Guinean security minister Sekou Koureissy Conde has accused Liberia and Sierra Leone of bringing war to Guinea, which must now defend itself.

Parallel developments in Ivory Coast look just as disheartening. When Gen. Robert Guei toppled President Henri Konan Bedie last Christmas, ordinary Ivorian were all too pleased to see an end to Bedie's corrupt rule. Although his government was democratically elected, people took to the streets to protest -- sometimes violently -- against the regime, which was widely regarded to be riddled with nepotism and favoritism, and which was accused of stoking ethnic rivalries.

Another reason, and perhaps the main cause of discontent, was that Bedie had denied opposition politician Alassane Ouattara the opportunity to run against him in presidential elections, claiming Outtara was not really an Ivorian. His father was held to be from Burkina Faso, which barred him from the office of president under the terms of the Ivorian constitution.

Now however, Guei does not seem to be behaving any better than his ousted predecessor. Having declared he would resign once law and order had returned to the country and a new president had been elected, he named Oct. 22 as polling day.

Meanwhile, Gen. Guei has not only announced that he will stand for election himself, but he is now also trying to stop Outtara's bid for the highest office in the country.

The new constitution stipulates that only people whose parents were Ivorians may be elected. Outtara is still adamant that both of his were true-blue Ivorians, but last week a court declared that his father did indeed come from Burkina Faso.

According to reports coming from the capital Abidjan, the country will disintegrate into war if this court decision succeeds in barring Outtara from the Oct. 22 poll. Last year's street fights will seem relatively harmless compared with the strife that looks set to follow the election.

Things could yet take a change for the better in both Guinea and Ivory Coast, of course, but this does not seem likely. In the early hours of Monday morning, Gen. Guei's house came under attack from a group of dissatisfied soldiers and although the general himself survived the assault, in which two of his bodyguards died, it has done nothing to lesson tension in the run-up to the election.

If war does break out in either country, the blame can be fixed squarely on two men, leaders who would prefer to ruin their countries than relinquish their hold on power.