Greed, complacency at play in drought, forest fires

We have been closely following the effect of the prolonged drought, causing both record crop failures and an unprecedented smog which has enveloped the region. We recently asked Dr. H.S. Dillon, Vice-President of the Asian Society of Agricultural Economists, who served as Assistant to the Minister of Agriculture for many years, to comment on the cause and probable effects of these disasters.

Question: What are the real causes of the drought, why does it seem that this drought caught us unawares and what is its impact?

Answer: The prolonged drought is caused by El Nio; so it is indeed a natural disaster. However, the food deprivation and the smog are man-made. Our Meteorological and Geophysics Agency had already warned us of the impending El Nio -- which is cyclical; so, we were not caught totally unaware.

You should remember that this also occurred in 1994. That this is now inflicting severe hardships on both us and our neighbors is due more to unbridled greed on the part of big plantation interests and the complacency of our agricultural bureaucracy leadership than to the severity of this year's El Nio itself.

If its cause is straightforward, assessing its impact is going to be much more complicated. On the one hand, the crop failures have pushed thousands of our farmers into poverty and reportedly led to the deaths of hundreds of our brethren in remote areas.

This will undoubtedly undermine their confidence in the government. The requisite food imports to compensate for the drop in production will drain our foreign exchange, and further exacerbate our balance of payments difficulties. It will be difficult to put a rupiah tab on the loss of forest, the ecological damage, impaired health, and the downturn in tourism. How does one value the lives lost to severe deprivation and navigational accidents?

Some experts are predicting that the ecological damage might take 25 years to mend, while others admit that it might take 30 years before we know the life-shortening capacity of the carcinogens released by these fires. Not to mention the strained relationship with our ASEAN neighbors.

To compound matters further, this is being interpreted by the international community as an indication of our inability to put our own house in order. Thus, the credibility of our government is at stake. I believe that all this has transpired because the agricultural leadership is not being provided with the proper advice.

Let's look at the crop failures first: there had been continued reassurances of adequate rice stocks from all government agencies, but why were there no reports of efforts to anticipate the crop failures and to help the affected farmers? What would your advice have been?

There's the rub. One would have expected that the State Minister for Food and the Head of Bulog would try to allay any fears of rice shortages and preempt price hikes by rice speculators. In our case, this becomes particularly important as New Year and the beginning of Ramadhan are spaced not very far apart.

However, it is deplorable that the agricultural leadership did not see fit to draw national attention to the plight of our farmers, and to lobby for measures to mitigate their suffering. It was President Soeharto who first called for efforts to help these farmers. I would have advised the agricultural leadership to set up a task force at the very first instance and immediately implement steps to mitigate the drought's impact such as providing quick-yielding seeds, or at the other extreme to advise farmers to plant less water-dependent crops.

Q: What of the forest fires, were they inevitable?

A: No, had the agricultural leadership shaken off its complacency and managed to instill a sense of urgency in related agencies, a large number of these fires could have been avoided. You see, using fires to complete land-clearing has been an everyday practice for a long time.

This actually comprises a rape of the commons -- in this case the environment -- as the one lighting the fires internalizes (captures) the benefit of the land being cleared and ready for planting but externalizes (makes others bear) the costs by releasing smoke into the environment, shared alike by all.

Actually, the plantation directors themselves were at a safe distance from the fires. Had the agricultural leadership galvanized its bureaucracy, it would have rescinded all its approval for using controlled fires for land clearing, and worked hand in hand with smallholders to avoid the burning of land. In this case, the business-as-usual stance adopted by the agricultural bureaucracy is either an indication of gross incompetence or complicity.

Q: What do you make of the President apologizing on two separate occasions, will this galvanize our bureaucracy?

A: The President exhibited the stuff that great statesmen are made of. But it's a national disgrace that the agricultural leadership placed President Soeharto in this position. This is ministerial irresponsibility at its worst.

I am not convinced that this will shake the bureaucracy out of its complacency. I would like to remind you that we went through all this just three years ago. However, no action was taken against those responsible. Without any punishment for their transgressions all these years, it should not come as a surprise that plantation directors and senior officials alike feel that they can get away with murder!

Q: What sort of advice would you render now?

A: The crop failures and forest fires have already taken their toll; nothing can reverse that now. Despite foreign assistance from near and far, we are still facing great difficulty in fighting the forest fires. I guess it will take heavy rains to douse these fires.

What we have to do now is embark upon confidence building. I would advise the agricultural leadership (minister) to shore up confidence in President Soeharto's government at this crucial juncture by demonstrating that we are still capable of taking firm, resolute action against those responsible for these fires.

First of all, I would counsel him to relieve of their posts all senior officials found guilty of gross negligence, along with directors of the state-owned plantations responsible for the organized burning on their plantations. Then, I would urge him to levy stiff fines on the directors of private plantations identified by satellite as sources of organized burning. Then, he should offer to resign.