Greed, complacency at play in drought, forest fires

Greed, complacency at play in drought, forest fires

We have been closely following the effect of the prolonged
drought, causing both record crop failures and an unprecedented
smog which has enveloped the region. We recently asked Dr. H.S.
Dillon, Vice-President of the Asian Society of Agricultural
Economists, who served as Assistant to the Minister of
Agriculture for many years, to comment on the cause and probable
effects of these disasters.

Question: What are the real causes of the drought, why does
it seem that this drought caught us unawares and what is its
impact?

Answer: The prolonged drought is caused by El Nio; so it is
indeed a natural disaster. However, the food deprivation and the
smog are man-made. Our Meteorological and Geophysics Agency had
already warned us of the impending El Nio -- which is cyclical;
so, we were not caught totally unaware.

You should remember that this also occurred in 1994. That this
is now inflicting severe hardships on both us and our neighbors
is due more to unbridled greed on the part of big plantation
interests and the complacency of our agricultural bureaucracy
leadership than to the severity of this year's El Nio itself.

If its cause is straightforward, assessing its impact is going
to be much more complicated. On the one hand, the crop failures
have pushed thousands of our farmers into poverty and reportedly
led to the deaths of hundreds of our brethren in remote areas.

This will undoubtedly undermine their confidence in the
government. The requisite food imports to compensate for the drop
in production will drain our foreign exchange, and further
exacerbate our balance of payments difficulties. It will be
difficult to put a rupiah tab on the loss of forest, the
ecological damage, impaired health, and the downturn in tourism.
How does one value the lives lost to severe deprivation and
navigational accidents?

Some experts are predicting that the ecological damage might
take 25 years to mend, while others admit that it might take 30
years before we know the life-shortening capacity of the
carcinogens released by these fires. Not to mention the strained
relationship with our ASEAN neighbors.

To compound matters further, this is being interpreted by the
international community as an indication of our inability to put
our own house in order. Thus, the credibility of our government
is at stake. I believe that all this has transpired because the
agricultural leadership is not being provided with the proper
advice.

Let's look at the crop failures first: there had been
continued reassurances of adequate rice stocks from all
government agencies, but why were there no reports of efforts to
anticipate the crop failures and to help the affected farmers?
What would your advice have been?

There's the rub. One would have expected that the State
Minister for Food and the Head of Bulog would try to allay any
fears of rice shortages and preempt price hikes by rice
speculators. In our case, this becomes particularly important as
New Year and the beginning of Ramadhan are spaced not very far
apart.

However, it is deplorable that the agricultural leadership did
not see fit to draw national attention to the plight of our
farmers, and to lobby for measures to mitigate their suffering.
It was President Soeharto who first called for efforts to help
these farmers. I would have advised the agricultural leadership
to set up a task force at the very first instance and immediately
implement steps to mitigate the drought's impact such as
providing quick-yielding seeds, or at the other extreme to advise
farmers to plant less water-dependent crops.

Q: What of the forest fires, were they inevitable?

A: No, had the agricultural leadership shaken off its complacency
and managed to instill a sense of urgency in related agencies, a
large number of these fires could have been avoided. You see,
using fires to complete land-clearing has been an everyday
practice for a long time.

This actually comprises a rape of the commons -- in this case
the environment -- as the one lighting the fires internalizes
(captures) the benefit of the land being cleared and ready for
planting but externalizes (makes others bear) the costs by
releasing smoke into the environment, shared alike by all.

Actually, the plantation directors themselves were at a safe
distance from the fires. Had the agricultural leadership
galvanized its bureaucracy, it would have rescinded all its
approval for using controlled fires for land clearing, and worked
hand in hand with smallholders to avoid the burning of land. In
this case, the business-as-usual stance adopted by the
agricultural bureaucracy is either an indication of gross
incompetence or complicity.

Q: What do you make of the President apologizing on two separate
occasions, will this galvanize our bureaucracy?

A: The President exhibited the stuff that great statesmen are
made of. But it's a national disgrace that the agricultural
leadership placed President Soeharto in this position. This is
ministerial irresponsibility at its worst.

I am not convinced that this will shake the bureaucracy out of
its complacency. I would like to remind you that we went through
all this just three years ago. However, no action was taken
against those responsible. Without any punishment for their
transgressions all these years, it should not come as a surprise
that plantation directors and senior officials alike feel that
they can get away with murder!

Q: What sort of advice would you render now?

A: The crop failures and forest fires have already taken their
toll; nothing can reverse that now. Despite foreign assistance
from near and far, we are still facing great difficulty in
fighting the forest fires. I guess it will take heavy rains to
douse these fires.

What we have to do now is embark upon confidence building. I
would advise the agricultural leadership (minister) to shore up
confidence in President Soeharto's government at this crucial
juncture by demonstrating that we are still capable of taking
firm, resolute action against those responsible for these fires.

First of all, I would counsel him to relieve of their posts
all senior officials found guilty of gross negligence, along with
directors of the state-owned plantations responsible for the
organized burning on their plantations. Then, I would urge him to
levy stiff fines on the directors of private plantations
identified by satellite as sources of organized burning. Then, he
should offer to resign.