Govt needs to prevent conflicts in 2004 elections

Govt needs to prevent conflicts in 2004 elections

Ignas Kleden
Sociologist
Director
Center for East Indonesian Affairs
Jakarta

The upcoming 2004 elections is a new political venture. It is
new not only in its goal to enable direct election at all levels,
but also in terms of its preparation. The preparatory stages are
intended to enable voters to select from among 24 parties --
those supposedly eligible because of administrative fit and
factual readiness.

Accordingly, the Ministry of Justice and Human Rights has
taken care of the administrative verification, whereas the
empirical examination of the factual existence and performance of
a political party has been conducted by the General Elections
Commission (KPU).

The approval of the Ministry of Justice and Human Rights
recognizes a political party as a legal entity, while the KPU's
approval verifies a political party as a contender in the general
elections.

The opening up of the political scene since the 1998 political
reform seems to have called many -- or too many -- parties into
existence. Initially, there were no less than 112 political
parties registered at the Ministry of Justice and Human Rights.
Among these, only 84 parties had undergone administrative
verification, resulting in 50 legally acknowledged parties.

Among these 50, six parties were automatically considered
legal entities because they had passed the electoral threshold,
while the remaining 44 had to undergo further administrative
verification. Finally, after empirical and factual examination by
the KPU, 24 political parties were declared fit to contest the
2004 general elections.

Needless to say, the exclusion of 26 parties from the general
elections has brought about dissatisfaction and protests.
However, these protests are highly unlikely to change the results
of the factual examination.

The KPU is required to respond to these protests and must make
it very clear that the exclusions are justified in accordance
with the rules and regulations of the verification procedure.

Potential conflicts that might arise from such dissatisfaction
can be reduced, provided that the KPU's response provides a clear
explanation as to why those 26 parties did not meet the minimum
requirements to contest the general elections.

Questions might arise as to whether these parties met the
requirement of territorial distribution -- the quota of
represented provinces and regencies -- as well as of demographic
representation, as each party branch at the regental level should
have at least 1,000 resident members or a membership comprising
at least 1/1,000 of the regental population.

The increasing importance of territorial distribution and
demographics in recognizing a political party as a legal entity
and bestowing it with the right to contest the general elections
can be a potential source of social conflict.

In this regard, the potential for conflict seems to stem from
the proliferation of provinces. Provinces across Indonesia now
number 32, including the most recently established provinces of
the Riau Islands and West Irian Jaya. The Jakarta government
seems to assume that the formation of these new provinces has
been settled without any problems.

This is obviously an overestimation, because there are still
some problems with the formation of new provinces. The province
of West Irian Jaya is a case in point, since the formation of
this province has caused the local people to question the reasons
behind its establishment. There is a brewing tension between
locals supporting and opposing the new province, which certainly
influences the general attitude of the area toward the central
government.

This issue has some consequences for the preparation of the
elections. The first problem is that the number of represented
provinces includes those provinces whose formation has raised
controversy among the locals.

This, in turn, compounds the difficulties facing the KPU,
which must establish its provincial and regental branches
according to a set time frame. Establishing such branch offices,
however, can be construed by the locals as confirming the
existence of the disputed province.

This problem with the KPU aside, special attention should be
paid to local conditions so that preparations for the general
elections does not become an occasion for horizontal conflicts
among the locals -- who might have different opinions about the
new political set-up while not having sufficient opportunity to
speak their minds. The government, both central and regional,
should give more attention to this issue and settle it before the
elections.

Political innovations introduced in the coming elections will
presumably bring with it new problems. It is better to anticipate
and mitigate these problems before they escalate into real
conflicts. Provided that we are willing to keep our eyes and
hearts open to such possibilities, we can settle them without too
many difficulties and without the high costs that entail a social
conflict.