Govt must face up to Y2K threat, advocate says

Govt must face up to Y2K threat, advocate says

By Primastuti Handayani and Reiner S.

JAKARTA (JP): Indonesia is already behind schedule in dealing
with the Y2K problem. What preparations are now being drawn up?
The Jakarta Post interviewed Ichyar Musa, head of the national
Y2K awareness division, a unit of the government task force in
charge of handling the millennium bug problem.

Question: Indonesia will also face the Y2K problem in the near
future. What steps have been taken by the government?

Answer: Frankly speaking, we are already too late because
there's only 293 days to go. But this doesn't mean there is
nothing we can do. Theoretically, we should have dealt with Y2K
problems in sequential steps -- dissemination, inventory, risk
analysis, prioritizing, and implementation. Due to the limited
time available, it's impossible to do it this way. We must do it
a parallel way.

Secondly, we must prioritize important sectors. We can't solve
all problems but we must be able to handle emergency situations.

So we have to prepare a contingency plan.

Q: What sectors receive priority?

A: My team sets priorities.

First, utilities and energy. For instance electricity, fuel,
telecommunications, water and gas. Those are utilities that
should be secured because they are vital to the public.

Second, the financial sector. The most crucial sector is the
banking sector because of its dominant role in our lives. But the
main concern is not our banking future failure in servicing
people but lack of confidence in the public that the banks can
overcome the problem. It could be fatal if there is a rush. We
hope it won't happen.

The insurance sector also faces the same problem because it
uses information technology. It also concerns our people's
interests.

Our stock exchange system will also have to deal with it.

Third, the transportation sector, especially air
transportation which must be tightly secured because it concerns
people's lives. There are two factors; the aircraft and the air
traffic control system (ATCS) in airports.

For example, Caltex Indonesia makes its aircraft the top
priority for its Y2K program.

We know that air transportation is linked to international
organizational agreements. Aircraft components, which are
serviceable, are scattered around the world because they can be
installed in different aircraft.

Some foreign airlines have predicted that there may be closure
of some airports due to the problem. Is Indonesia ready? We still
do not know because the government has yet to make any official
statement on our preparations.

Land transportation -- buses and cars -- will not really be
affected by Y2K. There will be some individual cases which have
modern technology such as cars with embedded chips, containing
dates. But the rich people will have no substantial trouble
solving the problem.

The problem could occur in our rail system. But trains have
their own manual security system, especially for signaling. For
the ticketing system it does not really matter.

Ships, maybe only tankers, which are computerized and only
have small crews, are likely to be affected by the problem. What
we are really concerned about is our harbor support devices,
which use an embedded system with logical controls.

Fourth, safety and mass industries such as pharmaceuticals,
fertilizers. Our country's security system is likely to be
affected -- if our F16s are malfunctioning, we must be able to
overcome the problem.

Last, public services such as immigration. Those sectors can't
have systemic failures due to Y2K problems.

Q: What is the state of preparation?

A: Well, the state of preparation is not really pleasing. For
example, PT Telkom has reached the implementation stage. But the
implementation has only reached the procurement level by holding
open tenders to solve the Y2K problem.

Telkom may not be ready because it just opened its tender. I
think they can finish the crucial sectors including management
services; revenues and billing system.

More important are their services and telephone centrals???.
Telkom has effected the right steps but has yet to complete them.
If in October it can't finish in time, it has a contingency plan.
Maybe there are several services which are deteriorating.

But basic telecommunication services like telephone
connections must be secured for people's basic needs.
Sophisticated services like data communications could be at risk.

Q: What about the electricity company (PLN)?

A: It's the same because the electricity supply business also
uses IT (information technology). There are three divisions; IT
domain, embedded system and business chain.

The IT domain will save the billing and accounting systems.
But if PLN can't fix them in time, it still can look for the
three month average of the costumers' bills. As long as the
computers can print the bills, it doesn't really matter because
PLN's system is scattered. It's manageable, it's not included in
the critical mission system.

The embedded system in PLN is autonomous, except in Java, Bali
and Madura which use an inter-connection system with so-called
"scada" facilities. The most important thing is scada which can
be switched off and changed to manual. Some of their power plants
use old technology without embedded chips.

All PLN reps have said the equipment complies.

Q: Is PLN still testing the claim?

A: Yes. But in PLN there are power plants, transmission and
distribution, each of which has possibilities of having embedded
chips. The most likely parts to have such chips are power
generation and transmission. PLN said it needs some fixing and
will be ready in time. New power plants must be fixed or changed,
which will require more funds. We want PLN to recheck the
statement that the equipment complies with the Y2K program. In
PLN, some systems can be defaulted and set manually. It's no
longer a matter of fixing the problem but of contingency.

Q: What about air transportation?

A: Some aircraft manufacturers like Fokker have guaranteed that
their products are Y2K-compliant. But Garuda has many kinds of
planes. Fly-by-wire planes are fully equipped with chips.
Air transportation runs on very tight secured disciplines so we
believe the manufacturers' guarantee.

The big question mark is over the ATCS because it has mixed
technology, mechanical and fully electronic. Our ATCS preparation
concerns Indonesia's reputation. If we fail, no airlines will
land here. Jakarta will be a black spot. It's not about losing
money but our reputation.

Q: Will the government announce its preparation in October?

A: Well, we divide the year 1999 into four quarters. The first
quarter is until D-day minus 300 (March 7) and we are still
disseminating information about the Y2K problem. The second is
from D-300 to D-200 (in June) and we'll inform the people if
there is anything going on. It's about our effort to solve the
problem. The third from D-200 to D-100 is the crunch. From D-100
to D-day is totally different -- it's about contingency and
urgency. We're fooling ourselves if we talk about fixing the
problem, as we don't have time.

Now is the time for contingency. Don't wait until October. In
October we will only disseminate the contingency measures.

Q: Which sectors are the most prepared?

A: It's difficult to say. For example, in Caltex, its IT domain
is 90 percent ready. The rest will be ready soon. Embedded
system, let's say, only 50 percent ready but the remaining 50
percent is not ready but they know how to finish it. But the
business chain is only 10 percent ready. Caltex must do it and
ask about the preparations.

BCA is also ready. The IT domain and embedded system may be
ready but what about the business chain? What if the telephone
lines are off?

In general, IT-related problems in many industries can be made
Y2K-proof. But the question is what about the business chain, the
problem that may arise due to non-compliance of other sectors but
related to the companies which are Y2K-proof. A manufacturer and
its supplier is one example of a chain relationship.

Unilever Indonesia is great. Since 1997, they have asked for
help in preparing the business chain.

Q: What is the estimated cost for Indonesia?

A: Foreign consultants have predicted that we need about US$1.6
billion. If we calculate that Telkom will need more than $50
million, Caltex needs more than $15 million and Exim more than $7
million, then I think the figure is realistic. Don't think it's
cheap.

The World Bank gave $32 million and Japan $18 million to
Telkom. We don't have the money.

Q: Considering our limited money, human resources, what should
the people do?

A: Don't panic. Y2K may be terrifying but we can handle it.
people must know exactly what Y2K is and how bad its impact on
society is. Don't overreact because this could trigger other
social problems.

People must not rush to withdraw their money from the bank. By
the end of April, internal and external auditors will supervise
banks reporting their Y2K preparations to the central bank (Bank
Indonesia). BI must announce which banks are ready for Y2K and
which are not.

The government must be straight and honest. It can be trusted.
Don't lie to people. Without trust, it will be disaster. If
something bad happens, we must know about it.