Govt must face up to Y2K threat, advocate says
By Primastuti Handayani and Reiner S.
JAKARTA (JP): Indonesia is already behind schedule in dealing with the Y2K problem. What preparations are now being drawn up? The Jakarta Post interviewed Ichyar Musa, head of the national Y2K awareness division, a unit of the government task force in charge of handling the millennium bug problem.
Question: Indonesia will also face the Y2K problem in the near future. What steps have been taken by the government?
Answer: Frankly speaking, we are already too late because there's only 293 days to go. But this doesn't mean there is nothing we can do. Theoretically, we should have dealt with Y2K problems in sequential steps -- dissemination, inventory, risk analysis, prioritizing, and implementation. Due to the limited time available, it's impossible to do it this way. We must do it a parallel way.
Secondly, we must prioritize important sectors. We can't solve all problems but we must be able to handle emergency situations.
So we have to prepare a contingency plan.
Q: What sectors receive priority?
A: My team sets priorities.
First, utilities and energy. For instance electricity, fuel, telecommunications, water and gas. Those are utilities that should be secured because they are vital to the public.
Second, the financial sector. The most crucial sector is the banking sector because of its dominant role in our lives. But the main concern is not our banking future failure in servicing people but lack of confidence in the public that the banks can overcome the problem. It could be fatal if there is a rush. We hope it won't happen.
The insurance sector also faces the same problem because it uses information technology. It also concerns our people's interests.
Our stock exchange system will also have to deal with it.
Third, the transportation sector, especially air transportation which must be tightly secured because it concerns people's lives. There are two factors; the aircraft and the air traffic control system (ATCS) in airports.
For example, Caltex Indonesia makes its aircraft the top priority for its Y2K program.
We know that air transportation is linked to international organizational agreements. Aircraft components, which are serviceable, are scattered around the world because they can be installed in different aircraft.
Some foreign airlines have predicted that there may be closure of some airports due to the problem. Is Indonesia ready? We still do not know because the government has yet to make any official statement on our preparations.
Land transportation -- buses and cars -- will not really be affected by Y2K. There will be some individual cases which have modern technology such as cars with embedded chips, containing dates. But the rich people will have no substantial trouble solving the problem.
The problem could occur in our rail system. But trains have their own manual security system, especially for signaling. For the ticketing system it does not really matter.
Ships, maybe only tankers, which are computerized and only have small crews, are likely to be affected by the problem. What we are really concerned about is our harbor support devices, which use an embedded system with logical controls.
Fourth, safety and mass industries such as pharmaceuticals, fertilizers. Our country's security system is likely to be affected -- if our F16s are malfunctioning, we must be able to overcome the problem.
Last, public services such as immigration. Those sectors can't have systemic failures due to Y2K problems.
Q: What is the state of preparation?
A: Well, the state of preparation is not really pleasing. For example, PT Telkom has reached the implementation stage. But the implementation has only reached the procurement level by holding open tenders to solve the Y2K problem.
Telkom may not be ready because it just opened its tender. I think they can finish the crucial sectors including management services; revenues and billing system.
More important are their services and telephone centrals???. Telkom has effected the right steps but has yet to complete them. If in October it can't finish in time, it has a contingency plan. Maybe there are several services which are deteriorating.
But basic telecommunication services like telephone connections must be secured for people's basic needs. Sophisticated services like data communications could be at risk.
Q: What about the electricity company (PLN)?
A: It's the same because the electricity supply business also uses IT (information technology). There are three divisions; IT domain, embedded system and business chain.
The IT domain will save the billing and accounting systems. But if PLN can't fix them in time, it still can look for the three month average of the costumers' bills. As long as the computers can print the bills, it doesn't really matter because PLN's system is scattered. It's manageable, it's not included in the critical mission system.
The embedded system in PLN is autonomous, except in Java, Bali and Madura which use an inter-connection system with so-called "scada" facilities. The most important thing is scada which can be switched off and changed to manual. Some of their power plants use old technology without embedded chips.
All PLN reps have said the equipment complies.
Q: Is PLN still testing the claim?
A: Yes. But in PLN there are power plants, transmission and distribution, each of which has possibilities of having embedded chips. The most likely parts to have such chips are power generation and transmission. PLN said it needs some fixing and will be ready in time. New power plants must be fixed or changed, which will require more funds. We want PLN to recheck the statement that the equipment complies with the Y2K program. In PLN, some systems can be defaulted and set manually. It's no longer a matter of fixing the problem but of contingency.
Q: What about air transportation?
A: Some aircraft manufacturers like Fokker have guaranteed that their products are Y2K-compliant. But Garuda has many kinds of planes. Fly-by-wire planes are fully equipped with chips. Air transportation runs on very tight secured disciplines so we believe the manufacturers' guarantee.
The big question mark is over the ATCS because it has mixed technology, mechanical and fully electronic. Our ATCS preparation concerns Indonesia's reputation. If we fail, no airlines will land here. Jakarta will be a black spot. It's not about losing money but our reputation.
Q: Will the government announce its preparation in October?
A: Well, we divide the year 1999 into four quarters. The first quarter is until D-day minus 300 (March 7) and we are still disseminating information about the Y2K problem. The second is from D-300 to D-200 (in June) and we'll inform the people if there is anything going on. It's about our effort to solve the problem. The third from D-200 to D-100 is the crunch. From D-100 to D-day is totally different -- it's about contingency and urgency. We're fooling ourselves if we talk about fixing the problem, as we don't have time.
Now is the time for contingency. Don't wait until October. In October we will only disseminate the contingency measures.
Q: Which sectors are the most prepared?
A: It's difficult to say. For example, in Caltex, its IT domain is 90 percent ready. The rest will be ready soon. Embedded system, let's say, only 50 percent ready but the remaining 50 percent is not ready but they know how to finish it. But the business chain is only 10 percent ready. Caltex must do it and ask about the preparations.
BCA is also ready. The IT domain and embedded system may be ready but what about the business chain? What if the telephone lines are off?
In general, IT-related problems in many industries can be made Y2K-proof. But the question is what about the business chain, the problem that may arise due to non-compliance of other sectors but related to the companies which are Y2K-proof. A manufacturer and its supplier is one example of a chain relationship.
Unilever Indonesia is great. Since 1997, they have asked for help in preparing the business chain.
Q: What is the estimated cost for Indonesia?
A: Foreign consultants have predicted that we need about US$1.6 billion. If we calculate that Telkom will need more than $50 million, Caltex needs more than $15 million and Exim more than $7 million, then I think the figure is realistic. Don't think it's cheap.
The World Bank gave $32 million and Japan $18 million to Telkom. We don't have the money.
Q: Considering our limited money, human resources, what should the people do?
A: Don't panic. Y2K may be terrifying but we can handle it. people must know exactly what Y2K is and how bad its impact on society is. Don't overreact because this could trigger other social problems.
People must not rush to withdraw their money from the bank. By the end of April, internal and external auditors will supervise banks reporting their Y2K preparations to the central bank (Bank Indonesia). BI must announce which banks are ready for Y2K and which are not.
The government must be straight and honest. It can be trusted. Don't lie to people. Without trust, it will be disaster. If something bad happens, we must know about it.