Government prepares Iraq war contingency plans

Zakki Hakim, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

The government has prepared a contingency plan to contain any potential impact of a possible U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, Minister of Industry and Trade Rini Soewandi said.

"The police have their quote, unquote war-room if things are happening," Rini said in an interview with Singapore-based Channel NewsAsia over the weekend, as reported by AFP.

She said the plan would focus on controlling local protesters, preventing individuals, including westerners, from being targeted, securing businesses and foiling any terrorist attacks.

"They're also communicating with all the religious leaders, ensuring that they are well aware of how they should communicate with their people, with their followers," Rini said.

There is a fear that an Iraq war would anger the country's anti-Western militant groups, which in the past often threatened violence against Western investors in the country in retaliation against the perceived anti-Islam policies of Western countries.

Indonesia is the world's most populous Muslim country with close to 90 percent of its some 214 million population following the faith.

But, Rini said, considering the moderate nature of Islam practiced in Indonesia, the government was confident the situation would not get out of control should a war break out in Iraq. The government is also prepared if there was any terrorist backlash.

"We feel we're a lot of more prepared than many other countries," she said.

On the economic side, Rini said the government was concerned that a war would hurt Indonesia's export earnings.

"The concern is whether people are still buying goods from different parts of the world, whether people will still buy goods or be holding them," the minister said.

However, she did not provide details as to whether the government had also prepared a contingency plan to contain the impacts of the war on the country's exports.

Many business associations have warned that a possible Iraq war would deal a heavy blow to the country's exports. Some have even complained that the prices of raw materials and shipment costs have risen even though there has been no military action as yet.

Several businessmen interviewed by The Jakarta Post on Sunday said that any short-term contingency plan to contain the impacts of a war would be helpful for the country's businessmen, but what they now most needed was a government policy aimed at improving their competitiveness for the long term.

"The government should focus on coordination between its ministries and institutions with one goal: to improve our competitiveness so that whatever happens elsewhere, like an Iraq war, we will still be able to compete," chairman of the Indonesian Employer Association (Apindo) Anton Supit said.

Anton said if a war broke out, buyers would look for goods which are cheaper and easier to distribute, which Indonesia exporters would be unable to provide given various factors, including security problems and unfavorable tax policies.

"We thus have to rely on the domestic market. But, our domestic purchasing power has decreased greatly," he said.

Lili Asdjudiredja, deputy chairman of the Indonesian Textile Association (API), shared Anton's opinion, saying it was the right time for the government to address all problems that have long made Indonesian businesses uncompetitive and to meet the demands that have long been aired by businesspeople.

Meanwhile, Thomas Dharmawan, chairman of the Indonesian Food and Beverage Association (Gapmi), said however, that a war could also provide new business opportunities for Indonesian companies.

"After the Gulf War in 1991, France and China penetrated the Iraq market, which needed food, clothes and housing materials. The government should help local businessmen to make deals to supply Iraq in any post-war rebuilding projects," he said.