Goodbye to East Timor

Although a semblance of calm prevailed in East Timor's capital of Dili on Monday shortly after the handover of security responsibilities from the Indonesian Military (TNI) and police to the commander of the multinational forces, few people, either in Indonesia or elsewhere, harbor the illusion that peace can be so easily restored in this troubled territory. Such skepticism is justified for a number of reasons.

Although the TNI commander for East Timor, Maj. Gen. Kiki Syahnakri, formally told the media in a news conference that the International Force for East Timor (Interfet) was forthwith responsible for any security concerns in the region, the provisions for cooperation between the two sides appear to remain somewhat vague.

Interfet Commander Maj. Gen. Peter Cosgrove was reported by foreign media as saying shortly after the handover ceremony in Dili that Indonesia remained in charge of security in East Timor until November, which is when this country's supreme policy- making body, the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), is slated to formally endorse -- or reject -- the results of the Aug. 30 ballot.

Since effective cooperation between TNI and Interfet is essential to reestablish peace, at least for as long as TNI continues to maintain a presence, however small, in the territory, any snags in this respect would hold the potential of hampering the effectiveness of the efforts of both Interfet and the United Nations Mission in East Timor (UNAMET).

Admittedly, much of this may be speculation. Cosgrove's comment could have been a diplomatic gesture of courtesy since the de facto authority for security in the eastern half of Timor Island is already firmly in his hands. But actual trouble could be in store, especially if allegations of collusion between elements of TNI and the pro-Jakarta militia are true. If they are true, the UN forces may have a hard time fighting the pro- Indonesian guerrillas with bases across the border in East Nusa Tenggara, the western half of the Island.

Thousands of pro-Jakarta militia are reported to have taken to the hills of East Timor's rugged hinterland, where they are believed to be preparing to launch a protracted guerrilla war "in a few days", to quote pro-Indonesia militia leader Eurico Guterres. This is a threat which the UN forces would do well to heed, assuming that allegations of elements of TNI lending their cover support to the militias are correct.

On the other side there appears to be a hardening in the stance of the proindependence fighters. A leader of the National Council of East Timorese Resistance (CNRT), Leandro Isaac, is reported as having withdrawn an amnesty offer made by the movement's Xanana Gusmao to pro-Indonesian militias shortly before the ballot. It appears to be an equation for trouble after TNI and the Indonesian police have left East Timor.

For those reasons, a withdrawal of Indonesian troops from East Timor proper may not be enough. If a genuine peace is to be established in East Timor, it is important for the UN to obtain the cooperation of the authorities in Jakarta to ensure not only that no seeds of trouble are left behind in East Timor, intentionally or otherwise, but that East Nusa Tenggara is not used as a base of retreat by pro-Indonesia militias.

Given the mood of uncompromising hostility that prevails between the rival factions in East Timor, genuine peace is unlikely to be established very soon. That can only happen when the people living in the territory -- not outsiders -- are ready to gather and forge agreements in a cool-headed, if not a congenial, manner on what is best for them and for their country. Outsiders can help in the short term; in the long term, the fate of East Timor is in the hands of the East Timorese alone.

For Indonesia and for other countries who have an interest in seeing that peace and stability are restored in this region, the only rational thing to do is to keep their cool amid all the furor, and to work together in a spirit of accord to resolve their differences. The question of peace or discord in East Timor affects not only the lives and happiness of the people of the territory, but the stability of the whole region as well.