Goodbye to East Timor

Goodbye to East Timor

Although a semblance of calm prevailed in East Timor's capital
of Dili on Monday shortly after the handover of security
responsibilities from the Indonesian Military (TNI) and police to
the commander of the multinational forces, few people, either in
Indonesia or elsewhere, harbor the illusion that peace can be so
easily restored in this troubled territory. Such skepticism is
justified for a number of reasons.

Although the TNI commander for East Timor, Maj. Gen. Kiki
Syahnakri, formally told the media in a news conference that the
International Force for East Timor (Interfet) was forthwith
responsible for any security concerns in the region, the
provisions for cooperation between the two sides appear to remain
somewhat vague.

Interfet Commander Maj. Gen. Peter Cosgrove was reported by
foreign media as saying shortly after the handover ceremony in
Dili that Indonesia remained in charge of security in East Timor
until November, which is when this country's supreme policy-
making body, the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), is slated
to formally endorse -- or reject -- the results of the Aug. 30
ballot.

Since effective cooperation between TNI and Interfet is
essential to reestablish peace, at least for as long as TNI
continues to maintain a presence, however small, in the
territory, any snags in this respect would hold the potential of
hampering the effectiveness of the efforts of both Interfet and
the United Nations Mission in East Timor (UNAMET).

Admittedly, much of this may be speculation. Cosgrove's
comment could have been a diplomatic gesture of courtesy since
the de facto authority for security in the eastern half of Timor
Island is already firmly in his hands. But actual trouble could
be in store, especially if allegations of collusion between
elements of TNI and the pro-Jakarta militia are true. If they are
true, the UN forces may have a hard time fighting the pro-
Indonesian guerrillas with bases across the border in East Nusa
Tenggara, the western half of the Island.

Thousands of pro-Jakarta militia are reported to have taken to
the hills of East Timor's rugged hinterland, where they are
believed to be preparing to launch a protracted guerrilla war "in
a few days", to quote pro-Indonesia militia leader Eurico
Guterres. This is a threat which the UN forces would do well to
heed, assuming that allegations of elements of TNI lending their
cover support to the militias are correct.

On the other side there appears to be a hardening in the
stance of the proindependence fighters. A leader of the National
Council of East Timorese Resistance (CNRT), Leandro Isaac, is
reported as having withdrawn an amnesty offer made by the
movement's Xanana Gusmao to pro-Indonesian militias shortly
before the ballot. It appears to be an equation for trouble after
TNI and the Indonesian police have left East Timor.

For those reasons, a withdrawal of Indonesian troops from East
Timor proper may not be enough. If a genuine peace is to be
established in East Timor, it is important for the UN to obtain
the cooperation of the authorities in Jakarta to ensure not only
that no seeds of trouble are left behind in East Timor,
intentionally or otherwise, but that East Nusa Tenggara is not
used as a base of retreat by pro-Indonesia militias.

Given the mood of uncompromising hostility that prevails
between the rival factions in East Timor, genuine peace is
unlikely to be established very soon. That can only happen when
the people living in the territory -- not outsiders -- are ready
to gather and forge agreements in a cool-headed, if not a
congenial, manner on what is best for them and for their country.
Outsiders can help in the short term; in the long term, the fate
of East Timor is in the hands of the East Timorese alone.

For Indonesia and for other countries who have an interest in
seeing that peace and stability are restored in this region, the
only rational thing to do is to keep their cool amid all the
furor, and to work together in a spirit of accord to resolve
their differences. The question of peace or discord in East Timor
affects not only the lives and happiness of the people of the
territory, but the stability of the whole region as well.