Good ties: Insurance for RI and Australia

Good ties: Insurance for RI and Australia

By Paul Dibb and Peter Prince

CANBERRA (JP): Australia's future is intimately bound up with
that of Indonesia. A stable Indonesia gives Australia security
and protection across its vast northern approaches. And the state
of Australia's relations with Jakarta heavily affects its links
with Southeast Asia as a whole.

It might also be noted, however, that at a time when Indonesia
and its new democratic institutions have only just started the
long journey towards political, economic and social stability,
poor relations with Australia are of no help to those seeking to
guide this process.

A further deterioration in ties between the two countries,
already at their lowest level for more than thirty years, would
be a very serious matter for both nations.

In the crisis over East Timor we have seen how words alone can
inflame tensions between Indonesia and Australia. Strong national
feelings have been aroused. It is vital for both governments to
appreciate that while some measure of calm has been restored to
the relationship over the last several weeks, the current
situation retains the potential to escalate quickly. The
volatility of bilateral ties is a recurring lesson in
international relations. It applies with great force to Indonesia
and Australia today.

Conflict between Indonesia and Australia would be a calamity.
On the one hand, it would end the peace and security Australians
have enjoyed largely uninterrupted since the World War II. And on
the other hand it would scare away investors from Indonesia and
make any large scale economic recovery improbable in the short to
medium term. It would also leave Indonesia even more vulnerable
to internal tension and conflict.

Moreover, such an occurrence would seriously undermine the
stability of the whole Southeast Asian region. In this part of
the world, the challenge of the next century, now mere days away,
will be whether the ASEAN nations -- weakened but not defeated by
the regional economic crisis -- will be able to hold their own in
the struggle for economic and political influence with the great
powers of North Asia. As the founders of ASEAN so clearly
perceived three decades ago, an Indonesia in conflict with its
neighbors would sap the strength and cohesion of the whole of
their region.

At a time of great change in Indonesia, it has to be
recognized that further tensions with Australia are likely.
Governments will need sound and sensible advice if they are to
manage these tension properly.

Such friction needs to be anticipated. It is no good
expressing the vague hope that current problems will soon pass
and everything will "return to normal". Time has moved on, and we
have to go forward, not back. The two countries are now in a new
relationship which requires active management from governments to
keep it on the straight and level, land to prevent a disastrous
dive from which bilateral ties might never recover.

East Timor was for many years a major bilateral irritant
between Indonesia and Australia. Now East Timor is suddenly
independent, and there is a new trilateral Indonesia/East
Timor/Australia relationship. Given the sudden and uneasy birth
of the new nation -- and the emotions this has aroused in
Indonesia and Australia -- we must anticipate further strains
over East Timor, and have mechanisms in place to prevent any
escalation of such tension

In our view, two specific mechanisms are needed to prepare for
and defuse potential bilateral or trilateral friction. These
mechanisms should be at a government to government level. Given
the strong feeling on all sides since the East Timor issue
emerged, standard diplomacy may not be enough. We need mechanisms
which can be activated quickly allowing direct personal contact
between political leaders.

The first mechanism should be bilateral between Indonesia and
Astral. It would enable the leaders of the two countries to
resolve bilateral tensions face to face. It might be argued that
a formal mechanism is unnecessary -- meetings could be quickly
arranged or matters could be discussed directly by telephone or
video link. But recent events prove that argument wrong. Direct
contact between Indonesian and Australian leaders after the East
Timor crisis broke out was difficult precisely because of the
seriousness of the situation. For example, Australia's Defense
Minister John Moore tried many times in vain to telephone his
then Indonesian counterpart, Gen. Wiranto, to discuss the crisis.

Once governments appreciate the serious potential dangers
which will persist for some time in the changed circumstances of
the current Indonesia-Australia relationship, then the need for a
formal mechanism to help defuse such dangers should also be
accepted.

The second mechanism should be trilateral -- between
Indonesia, Australia and East Timor. It would be wise to put a
procedure in place to help manage this relationship. Perhaps over
time this could simply be a bilateral Indonesia/East Timor
mechanism, much like the border commissions Indonesia already has
with neighbors such as Malaysia. However, given Australia's
presence in East Timor and the significance of the East Timor
issue for Indonesia-Australia relations overall, Australian
involvement in such a mechanism is essential at least for the
short term.

Such mechanisms would give Indonesia and Australia a measure
of insurance to protect the two nations against escalation of
bilateral tensions. In recent weeks, we have seen some
imaginative diplomacy by President Wahid, including a visit to
China and approaches to Israel. The Indonesian and Australian
Governments should consider a similarly forward looking
initiative to help ensure long term peace and stability
between their two nations.

Prof. Paul Dibb is Head of the Strategic and Defense Studies
Center at the Australian National University, Canberra. Dr. Peter
Prince is a former head of the ASEAN section in the Australian
Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. They contribute this
article exclusively for The Jakarta Post.