Golkar's primary election: Akbar Tandjung's final battle
Golkar's primary election: Akbar Tandjung's final battle
Budiman Moerdijat, Consultant, Jakarta
When the meeting of Golkar's leadership decided last week to
hold its party convention to select its presidential candidate in
February 2004, analysts and the media were quick to point out
that it was the first sign of defeat of the party's convicted
boss, Akbar Tandjung.
It is an open secret that Akbar, who has been sentenced to
three years in jail for graft, wanted the convention to be held
after the parliamentary election in April 2004. This would have
bought him more time pending his appeal to the Supreme Court, and
would have given him the opportunity to cut political dealings
with other parties in the event that Golkar lost the
parliamentary election.
But a closer look beneath the surface would reveal that Akbar
has not completely lost the game, despite having had to bow to
rivals' demands at holding the convention on an earlier date.
As party chairman, he still has everything at his disposal. In
fact, he could be the biggest stumbling block to those who want
to run as the Golkar candidate in the country's first
presidential election next year. The consummate politician will
undoubtedly make sure that the convention will be held according
to his terms.
An indication of Akbar's resolve that he will not give up the
fight easily was apparent during last week's leadership meeting,
when he refused to agree to demands made by other party officials
that the convention be held in October this year. When he did
eventually compromise to having the Convention in February,
earlier than he wanted, he succeeded in convincing regional party
chapters that it should be held in two stages.
The first stage, or a pre-convention, planned in October this
year, is to short-list the nominees to five people. In the Final
convention in February, a total of 524 officials from the party's
central board, regional chapters and factions will elect the
Golkar presidential candidate out of the five.
Splitting the convention into two stages is a well-calculated
move by Akbar. This means the candidates will have to commit
themselves to a longer and a costly political battle.
Like it or not, the five people who will be nominated in
October will have to do all they can -- politically and
financially -- to win the final convention in February. They must
also brace themselves for what could be an ugly journey towards
the final convention, with Akbar and his loyalists threatening
deceit at every turn.
However, there will be an incentive, of course, to encourage
the losers to stay on with the party even after the convention.
Akbar has suggested that they could be offered the position of
running mate to presidential candidates from parties other than
Golkar, namely the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI
Perjuangan).
This means that whoever loses in the convention -- if he or
she is not a running mate to Golkar's presidential candidate --
can choose to run as incumbent President Megawati Soekarnoputri's
vice presidential candidate in the 2004 election.
This scenario is possible, even in the event that Golkar loses
the parliamentary election -- the party knows that it would be
the first choice for PDI Perjuangan, the country's largest party,
in forming a coalition.
Akbar has also come up with more incentives for the other
losers: Positions in the Cabinet. The aim is clear that he
intends to buy their loyalty to the party and prevent them from
sabotaging its campaign.
He promises that all nominees would receive some sort of
position, hence eliminating the possibility of sidelining anyone
-- which, in the tradition of Indonesian politics, often leads to
party infighting.
But, as the old saying goes, there is no free lunch in
politics. Those interested in these offers would be expected to
make large contributions to the party in the run-up to the
legislative election.
The two-stage convention has left non-party candidates with no
other choice than to suck up to the party leadership.
This picture once again tells us that Akbar, as a first-rate
tactician, is still capable of turning predicament into
opportunity, despite his legal status and internal rifts in the
party.
Another factor that will definitely be exploited by Akbar is
the fact that the men whose names have been circulating as
possible presidential candidates for Golkar are somewhat
outsiders to the party.
They include Muslim scholar Nurcholish Madjid, Coordinating
Minister for People's Welfare Jusuf Kalla, Minister of
Communications Agum Gumelar, former TNI chief Gen. (ret) Wiranto,
Yogyakarta Governor Hamengkubuwono X and media tycoon Surya
Paloh.
In this context, it is safe to assume that none of the
potential candidates have any real control of the internal
workings of the party, while Akbar and his loyalists still have a
very strong grip on the party.
In addition, the political skills of these possible contenders
are also largely untested, while political maneuvers appear to be
the key to success within Golkar, which is known to have
cultivated some skillful politicians.
Akbar also has another significant edge over the non-party
candidates: He commands the loyalty of most regional party
chapters, whose chairmen owe him a great many favors for helping
to put them in power.
At the end of the day, it is the candidate who makes a
concession with Akbar who will win the coveted candidacy, because
Akbar never had any real intention to have a fully democratic
Convention.
The writer is now working as consultant at Jakarta-based
political risk and government relations consulting firm Van Zorge
Heffernan and Associates.