'Golkar to benefit from public disappointment to win polls'

'Golkar to benefit from public disappointment to win polls'

Muninggar Sri Saraswati, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

The Golkar Party would take advantage of widespread
disappointment with the so-called reform parties to woo support
from the public, particularly from first-time voters, to win the
election next year, a survey shows.

A recent survey conducted by the Indonesian Survey Institute
(LSI) showed that Golkar would seize some 3.5 percent of the vote
won by the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI
Perjuangan) in 1999, 0.7 percent from National Awakening Party
(PKB), 0.8 percent from the United Development Party (PPP), 0.2
percent from the National Mandate Party (PAN) and 0.2 percent
from the Crescent Star Party (PBB).

The reform movement that marked the fall of long-time ruler
President Soeharto in 1998 gave birth to hundreds of new parties.
The ensuing general election in 1999 saw PDI Perjuangan finish
first to end the unbeaten run of the Soeharto-built New Order's
political machine Golkar.

"People who cast their ballots for the so-called reform
parties in 1999 will return to Golkar out of disappointment," M.
Qadari, the LSI research director, told a press conference on
Friday.

PDI Perjuangan, which won 33.7 percent of the vote in 1999,
would suffer the biggest blow with only 20.8 percent of the vote
in the upcoming election, the survey predicted.

Other parties would experience a decline, with PKB down to 7.5
percent of the vote from 12.6 percent in 1999, PAN dropping to
3.5 percent of the vote from 7.1 percent and PBB down from 1.94
percent to 1.9 percent.

Qadari said the government's failure to implement speedy
economic recovery and security concerns plaguing the country were
the reasons for the people's decision to look back at Golkar.

Some 56.4 percent of 1,700 respondents surveyed said they felt
their life was far better under the New Order regime and some
65.4 percent said that the current government had failed to put
an end to the economic crisis.

As many as 28.7 percent of the respondents believed Golkar may
help the country overcome the economic crisis, while only 19
percent were confident in PDI Perjuangan.

"The respondents dream about the glory old days under the New
Order regime. They are more tolerant of corruption practices as
they only expect their economic life to improve," Qadari said.

Golkar has a great chance of winning support from voters who
"migrate from other parties" as it stands between nationalist-
based PDI Perjuangan and Muslim-based parties like PBB, PPP, PAN
and PKB, Qadari added.

"Golkar will benefit a lot from long-standing rivalry between
secular-nationalist and Islam parties," he said.

The survey also disclosed a remote chance for new parties of
stealing the limelight. Parties like the Reform Star Party (PBR),
the Pioneer Party, the Glorious Bull Nationalist Party (PNBK),
the National Democratic Party (PDK) and the New Indonesian
Alliance Party (PIB) would each gain 0.2 percent of the vote.

"They will apparently be unable to meet the electoral
threshold of 3 percent of the vote and will be denied entry to
the 2009 election," Qadari said.

He said the fact that most voters lived in remote areas would
also help Golkar win back the power as the people could hardly
recognize the new contending parties.

The survey was conducted from Aug. 1 to Aug. 20 nationwide
excluding Aceh, involving 1,760 respondents chosen through random
sampling.

Most of the respondents come from rural areas with low
education and economic status. The composition of female and male
respondents was fifty-fifty.