Golkar suspensions weaken pro-Mega coalition: Analysts
Kurniawan Hari, The Jakarta Post/Jakarta
Golkar's decision to suspend several of its members would affect a major coalition led by the biggest party to help President Megawati Soekarnoputri retain power in Monday's election runoff, analysts say.
"Instead of bringing benefit to the coalition, the dismissals would have a negative impact on its support for Megawati," political analyst Maswadi Rauf told the press here on Friday.
He explained that the suspensions would worsen the internal bickering within Golkar as several regional chapters of the party may switch allegiance for Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and running mate Jusuf Kalla.
The suspension of more than 10 Golkar executives could have a boomerang effect on the Nationhood Coalition and present a bad image to Golkar supporters ahead of the Sept. 20 election, added Maswadi from the University of Indonesia.
The pro-Megawati coalition comprises Golkar, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the United Development Party (PPP) and the Prosperous Peace Party (PDS).
Golkar's decision to give its official backing to Megawati and Hasyim Muzadi was announced after its presidential candidate Wiranto and running mate Solahuddin Wahid lost in the first round of the election on July 5.
Senior Golkar leader Fahmi Idris and his 10 allies were suspended by the party's central board for refusing to support Megawati in the upcoming election. Kalla was also made non-active as a Golkar advisor.
Fahmi and other dissenting executives claimed their suspension was illegal, arguing that the decision was made in violation of the organization's procedures. They had formed a Golkar Reform Forum to solicit support for Susilo-Kalla.
Sukardi Rinakit from the Soegeng Sarjadi Syndicated pollster said that the suspensions had nothing to do with the current political constellation in the country.
Several surveys have shown that Susilo and Kalla would win the presidential election, he said.
"People already have their preferences. The Golkar conflict will not affect them," Sukardi added.
Meanwhile, Golkar chairman Akbar Tandjung said on Friday that the coalition to support Megawati-Hasyim was solid, while boasting that he is still warmly greeted by party members in the regions.
Separately, Golkar deputy chairman Agung Laksono said the party's dissident politicians would still be given a chance to repent by ceasing their activities.
However, Marzuki Darusman, who was among the suspended Golkar members, said he would return the suspension letter to the party's central executive board.
Because the suspension violated the Golkar's organizational rules, it should not be respected, he said.
Based on the rules, Marzuki said, a second warning from the Golkar central board must be issued within 20 days after the first warning and the suspension must be decided 10 days after the second warning.
In fact, the Golkar central board issued the first and second warnings on Sept. 2 and 8 respectively. The suspension was announced last Wednesday.
The organizational rules also state that suspension must also be made after hearing clarification from those members who are to be suspended.
"How can the party's central board hand down punishment before asking for clarification from us?" Marzuki asked.