Golkar, PPP, PDI face tough battle

Golkar, PPP, PDI face tough battle

JAKARTA (JP): Next year's general election will be anything
but plain sailing for the three existing political organizations:
Golkar, the United Development Party (PPP) and the Indonesian
Democratic Party (PDI), according to political analysts.

National Institute of Sciences (LIPI) researcher Indria Samego
and political lecturer at the Surabaya-based Airlangga University
Ramlan Surbakti both agree that it will not be easy for the three
political organizations to maintain the support won in the 1997
election.

"The only existing political organization that will survive
the 1999 general election is Golkar," Indria told The Jakarta
Post.

He said that with all its infrastructure, human resources and
strong financial foundations that it has, Golkar could still
secure 30 percent of the seats in the House of Representatives
(DPR).

"It is impossible for Golkar to retain its supremacy of the
1997 general election when it secured 74.27 percent of the House
seats."

"Golkar will lose some of its voters in the Nahdlatul Ulama
(NU) Moslems organization, who will surely vote for the newly
established NU party, the National Awakening Party (PKB)," he
said.

Indria, who chairs the LIPI-sponsored team conducting
alternative research on the revision of political laws, including
legislation on political parties and the electoral system, said
Golkar could, however, still win the support of its traditional
voters in villages, "who are not sensitive enough to understand
all its sins".

He did not specify the sins, but urban dwellers may be aware
of vote-trading before the election and manipulation of the
ballot counting.

Indria, also a researcher at the Center for Information and
Development Studies, said PPP and the government-backed PDI under
the leadership of Soerjadi may have difficulty securing 10
percent of the elected House seats, currently the minimum
required to function effectively.

"PPP's traditional constituents will return to their reborn
political parties," Indria said.

"Those NU elements in PPP will vote for PKB, while the
traditional Masjumi party supporters will vote for either the
newly established Moon and Star Party (Partai Bulan Bintang) or
the People's Mandate Party (PAB), whose establishment will be
announced by its popular figure Amien Rais on Aug. 17," he said.

Speaking about the outlook for the government-backed PDI under
Soerjadi, he predicted that it would do worse that in the 1997
election. PDI only secured 3.04 percent of the House seats.

Indria suggested that Soerjadi consolidate with ousted PDI
leader Megawati Soekarnoputri to ensure PDI wins a significant
number of seats in the next election.

"Yet, the Soerjadi-Megawati coalition, should it be
established, will only be able to secure 20 percent of the seats
in the House," he said. Ramlan said the next election would be
tough for all the contestants.

"None of the political contestants will dominate the 1999
general election as each has their own strong constituencies,"
Ramlan told the Post. "Golkar can still survive the election,
but will be unable to maintain its domination," he said.

He said Golkar would not enjoy financial assistance from the
government and other sources anymore because there would be
restrictions on the amount of money that a political party can
receive.

He also said that with the implementation of the district
system, Golkar would find it difficult to win the people's
sympathy as it will be completely determined by the grassroots
popularity of its party figures.

"It's not the party, but the figures who will make the big
gains," he said.

Ramlan, a member of similar team established by the Ministry
of Home Affairs to produce a revision of the three political
laws, said the PPP would find it difficult to survive the
election as threats of disintegration have emerged.

He agreed that its NU elements would likely join the PKB, and
the elements of the defunct Masjumi party will join the Moon and
Star Party (Partai Bulan Bintang).

The PDI leadership under the government-backed chairman
Soerjadi, he said, would be unable to meet the minimum
requirement that will be stipulated in the new law on political
parties, the draft of which is to be discussed by the House this
month. He said the new law would require political parties to
have chapters in at least in 14 provinces and branch offices in
154 regencies and mayoralties.

The new law will also require political parties to attract 1
percent of eligible voters, or about one million people, before
they can qualify for seats. "I don't think that Soerjadi can meet
the criteria," Ramlan said.

He, however, said that the rival PDI leadership under Megawati
Soekarnoputri could have an important share and enter the
legislative body if she goes it alone or forms a coalition with
Soerjadi. He predicted that the PKB and the Partai Bulan Bintang
could also win big in next year's election. (imn)