Golkar, PPP, PDI face tough battle
JAKARTA (JP): Next year's general election will be anything but plain sailing for the three existing political organizations: Golkar, the United Development Party (PPP) and the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI), according to political analysts.
National Institute of Sciences (LIPI) researcher Indria Samego and political lecturer at the Surabaya-based Airlangga University Ramlan Surbakti both agree that it will not be easy for the three political organizations to maintain the support won in the 1997 election.
"The only existing political organization that will survive the 1999 general election is Golkar," Indria told The Jakarta Post.
He said that with all its infrastructure, human resources and strong financial foundations that it has, Golkar could still secure 30 percent of the seats in the House of Representatives (DPR).
"It is impossible for Golkar to retain its supremacy of the 1997 general election when it secured 74.27 percent of the House seats."
"Golkar will lose some of its voters in the Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) Moslems organization, who will surely vote for the newly established NU party, the National Awakening Party (PKB)," he said.
Indria, who chairs the LIPI-sponsored team conducting alternative research on the revision of political laws, including legislation on political parties and the electoral system, said Golkar could, however, still win the support of its traditional voters in villages, "who are not sensitive enough to understand all its sins".
He did not specify the sins, but urban dwellers may be aware of vote-trading before the election and manipulation of the ballot counting.
Indria, also a researcher at the Center for Information and Development Studies, said PPP and the government-backed PDI under the leadership of Soerjadi may have difficulty securing 10 percent of the elected House seats, currently the minimum required to function effectively.
"PPP's traditional constituents will return to their reborn political parties," Indria said.
"Those NU elements in PPP will vote for PKB, while the traditional Masjumi party supporters will vote for either the newly established Moon and Star Party (Partai Bulan Bintang) or the People's Mandate Party (PAB), whose establishment will be announced by its popular figure Amien Rais on Aug. 17," he said.
Speaking about the outlook for the government-backed PDI under Soerjadi, he predicted that it would do worse that in the 1997 election. PDI only secured 3.04 percent of the House seats.
Indria suggested that Soerjadi consolidate with ousted PDI leader Megawati Soekarnoputri to ensure PDI wins a significant number of seats in the next election.
"Yet, the Soerjadi-Megawati coalition, should it be established, will only be able to secure 20 percent of the seats in the House," he said. Ramlan said the next election would be tough for all the contestants.
"None of the political contestants will dominate the 1999 general election as each has their own strong constituencies," Ramlan told the Post. "Golkar can still survive the election, but will be unable to maintain its domination," he said.
He said Golkar would not enjoy financial assistance from the government and other sources anymore because there would be restrictions on the amount of money that a political party can receive.
He also said that with the implementation of the district system, Golkar would find it difficult to win the people's sympathy as it will be completely determined by the grassroots popularity of its party figures.
"It's not the party, but the figures who will make the big gains," he said.
Ramlan, a member of similar team established by the Ministry of Home Affairs to produce a revision of the three political laws, said the PPP would find it difficult to survive the election as threats of disintegration have emerged.
He agreed that its NU elements would likely join the PKB, and the elements of the defunct Masjumi party will join the Moon and Star Party (Partai Bulan Bintang).
The PDI leadership under the government-backed chairman Soerjadi, he said, would be unable to meet the minimum requirement that will be stipulated in the new law on political parties, the draft of which is to be discussed by the House this month. He said the new law would require political parties to have chapters in at least in 14 provinces and branch offices in 154 regencies and mayoralties.
The new law will also require political parties to attract 1 percent of eligible voters, or about one million people, before they can qualify for seats. "I don't think that Soerjadi can meet the criteria," Ramlan said.
He, however, said that the rival PDI leadership under Megawati Soekarnoputri could have an important share and enter the legislative body if she goes it alone or forms a coalition with Soerjadi. He predicted that the PKB and the Partai Bulan Bintang could also win big in next year's election. (imn)