Golkar landslide likely in South Sulawesi

Golkar landslide likely in South Sulawesi

By Jupriadi

UJUNGPANDANG, South Sulawesi (JP): Banners bearing the Golkar
logo and number here also bear the image of the hometown man --
B.J. Habibie. He was born in Pare-pare regency before being sent
to school in Java by his family. Habibie served for 20 years as a
minister under then president Soeharto before rising to the
position of vice president, and now sits in the nation's highest
seat of power.

Residents believe he needs to keep his seat for at least
another five years rather than giving it up to another Javanese.

"When else will we get a chance to have a president from
Sulawesi," A.A. Baramuli, a Golkar executive and noted
businessman from the province's Pinrang regency, asked when
meeting party supporters before the start of the campaign.

While some Golkar executives regret Golkar's decision to name
President Habibie its presidential nominee, particularly given
his perceived foot-dragging in investigating allegations of
corruption against Soeharto, he is the main vote getter here.

People here believe having a Sulawesi native at the helm of
power will reverse the results of the last 30 years of Soeharto's
rule. Three decades of centralization have depleted the province
of its rightful wealth, a situation similar to that faced by
other provinces in eastern Indonesia, public figures and
observers here say. They point to poverty in the province, the
lack of infrastructure and the poor educational system -- while
revenue from South Sulawesi stood at 63 percent of the provincial
budget for the 1997/1998 fiscal year.

A seminar last month here on regional autonomy resulted in
calls for 50 percent of regional revenue, mainly derived from
natural resources, including nickel, to go to the province.

Thanks in large part to Habibie's drawing power here, Golkar
campaigners claim the party will receive at least 60 percent of
the province's estimated 5 million votes, while observers say
this number could be even higher.

Other main contenders here are the United Development Party
(PPP), the National Mandate Party (PAN), the Indonesian
Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan), the Crescent Star
Party (PBB) and the National Awakening Party (PKB).

The head of government studies at Hasanuddin University, M.
Kausar Bailusy, said the fact remains that only Golkar has an
established infrastructure which reaches down to the villages.

While a number of other parties are popular, PDI Perjuangan,
for example, is less well-known in the villages and PAN relies on
the village branches of the Muslim organization Muhammadiyah,
formerly led by PAN chairman Amien Rais.

"Don't be surprised if some people, if not many, in rural
areas are unaware that there are a number of other political
parties besides the United Development Party, Golkar and the
Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI)," he said referring to the
three recognized parties during the New Order era. PDI Perjuangan
splintered off PDI.

Bailusy predicts Golkar will win big in the elections here
also thanks to the substantial financial support it enjoys
compared to other parties. In countries struggling toward
democracy, like Indonesia, he said, money is one effective means
to win polls.

"I believe Golkar Party's victory in the upcoming elections
depends heavily on money. I am not saying that Golkar will be
using money... Realistically, no party can even dream of winning
the elections without money," he said.

He added that Habibie was Golkar's main attraction here.

"Golkar can win not only in South Sulawesi but also in all of
Sulawesi and the rest of Indonesia's eastern regions if it
'sells' Habibie," he said.

Results of a student poll conducted last April by Identitas
(Identity), a campus publication managed by students from
Hasanuddin University, caused a stir in academic circles although
there were only 320 respondents.

While students here have often staged protests against the
government and Golkar, the poll revealed that Golkar was the
favorite party among students, being named by 15.35 percent of
poll respondents. Their main reason -- Habibie as presidential
candidate.

Golkar was followed by the Justice Party, chosen by 14.42
percent of respondents. Coming in third with 8.84 percent of
respondents was the National Mandate Party and the Crescent Star
Party. PDI Perjuangan was named by 2.93 percent of poll
respondents.

Asked which party they thought would win the polls in the
province, 48.8 percent of respondents said Golkar, followed by
PAN, with 22.79 percent of respondents.

The poll also revealed that 70.23 percent of respondents
believed the upcoming elections would bring about changes and
82.33 percent of the respondents would vote in the elections,
Kundari Pri Susanti, an editor at the publication, said.

The provincial chairman of PAN, Mohammad Askin, told the Post
that it was still too difficult to beat Golkar in South Sulawesi.
Compared to Golkar, PAN is not very popular in rural areas
despite its efforts at the regional level, he said.

Nevertheless, he is optimistic PAN can do well in a number of
areas where the majority of people are Muhammadiyah members. "PAN
is relying on Muhammadiyah members," he said, despite the party's
much trumpeted platform of inclusiveness.

The chairman of the provincial chapter of the United
Development Party, Arsyad Pana, agreed that Golkar was "too
strong" to defeat in the province. However, he is convinced PPP
will win a large number of votes in this Muslim-dominated
province thanks to the party's return to its original logo -- the
holy shrine or the Ka'aba.

"When the Ka'aba was still the party's logo, PPP was a
challenge to Golkar in terms of number of votes."

Courage

M. Nur Alamsyah, a student activist, said it was public
knowledge here that Golkar would again win the upcoming
elections. "If Golkar wins, students must have the courage to
accept this reality."

Alamsyah, however, does not consider the results of the
upcoming elections very important. Thousands of students who have
joined private poll watchdogs are focusing on ensuring the poll
is fair. The poll, he added, "should be made a basic reference
for learning to put democracy into practice".

"If Golkar happens to win, other parties must respect this
victory," he said. Alamsyah said that what was currently a
"serious concern" to many people here was the prospect of other
parties not accepting a Golkar victory.

"Our people are just learning to implement democracy, its
natural there will be political jolts in the future," he said.