Golkar landslide likely in South Sulawesi

By Jupriadi

UJUNGPANDANG, South Sulawesi (JP): Banners bearing the Golkar logo and number here also bear the image of the hometown man -- B.J. Habibie. He was born in Pare-pare regency before being sent to school in Java by his family. Habibie served for 20 years as a minister under then president Soeharto before rising to the position of vice president, and now sits in the nation's highest seat of power.

Residents believe he needs to keep his seat for at least another five years rather than giving it up to another Javanese.

"When else will we get a chance to have a president from Sulawesi," A.A. Baramuli, a Golkar executive and noted businessman from the province's Pinrang regency, asked when meeting party supporters before the start of the campaign.

While some Golkar executives regret Golkar's decision to name President Habibie its presidential nominee, particularly given his perceived foot-dragging in investigating allegations of corruption against Soeharto, he is the main vote getter here.

People here believe having a Sulawesi native at the helm of power will reverse the results of the last 30 years of Soeharto's rule. Three decades of centralization have depleted the province of its rightful wealth, a situation similar to that faced by other provinces in eastern Indonesia, public figures and observers here say. They point to poverty in the province, the lack of infrastructure and the poor educational system -- while revenue from South Sulawesi stood at 63 percent of the provincial budget for the 1997/1998 fiscal year.

A seminar last month here on regional autonomy resulted in calls for 50 percent of regional revenue, mainly derived from natural resources, including nickel, to go to the province.

Thanks in large part to Habibie's drawing power here, Golkar campaigners claim the party will receive at least 60 percent of the province's estimated 5 million votes, while observers say this number could be even higher.

Other main contenders here are the United Development Party (PPP), the National Mandate Party (PAN), the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan), the Crescent Star Party (PBB) and the National Awakening Party (PKB).

The head of government studies at Hasanuddin University, M. Kausar Bailusy, said the fact remains that only Golkar has an established infrastructure which reaches down to the villages.

While a number of other parties are popular, PDI Perjuangan, for example, is less well-known in the villages and PAN relies on the village branches of the Muslim organization Muhammadiyah, formerly led by PAN chairman Amien Rais.

"Don't be surprised if some people, if not many, in rural areas are unaware that there are a number of other political parties besides the United Development Party, Golkar and the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI)," he said referring to the three recognized parties during the New Order era. PDI Perjuangan splintered off PDI.

Bailusy predicts Golkar will win big in the elections here also thanks to the substantial financial support it enjoys compared to other parties. In countries struggling toward democracy, like Indonesia, he said, money is one effective means to win polls.

"I believe Golkar Party's victory in the upcoming elections depends heavily on money. I am not saying that Golkar will be using money... Realistically, no party can even dream of winning the elections without money," he said.

He added that Habibie was Golkar's main attraction here.

"Golkar can win not only in South Sulawesi but also in all of Sulawesi and the rest of Indonesia's eastern regions if it 'sells' Habibie," he said.

Results of a student poll conducted last April by Identitas (Identity), a campus publication managed by students from Hasanuddin University, caused a stir in academic circles although there were only 320 respondents.

While students here have often staged protests against the government and Golkar, the poll revealed that Golkar was the favorite party among students, being named by 15.35 percent of poll respondents. Their main reason -- Habibie as presidential candidate.

Golkar was followed by the Justice Party, chosen by 14.42 percent of respondents. Coming in third with 8.84 percent of respondents was the National Mandate Party and the Crescent Star Party. PDI Perjuangan was named by 2.93 percent of poll respondents.

Asked which party they thought would win the polls in the province, 48.8 percent of respondents said Golkar, followed by PAN, with 22.79 percent of respondents.

The poll also revealed that 70.23 percent of respondents believed the upcoming elections would bring about changes and 82.33 percent of the respondents would vote in the elections, Kundari Pri Susanti, an editor at the publication, said.

The provincial chairman of PAN, Mohammad Askin, told the Post that it was still too difficult to beat Golkar in South Sulawesi. Compared to Golkar, PAN is not very popular in rural areas despite its efforts at the regional level, he said.

Nevertheless, he is optimistic PAN can do well in a number of areas where the majority of people are Muhammadiyah members. "PAN is relying on Muhammadiyah members," he said, despite the party's much trumpeted platform of inclusiveness.

The chairman of the provincial chapter of the United Development Party, Arsyad Pana, agreed that Golkar was "too strong" to defeat in the province. However, he is convinced PPP will win a large number of votes in this Muslim-dominated province thanks to the party's return to its original logo -- the holy shrine or the Ka'aba.

"When the Ka'aba was still the party's logo, PPP was a challenge to Golkar in terms of number of votes."

Courage

M. Nur Alamsyah, a student activist, said it was public knowledge here that Golkar would again win the upcoming elections. "If Golkar wins, students must have the courage to accept this reality."

Alamsyah, however, does not consider the results of the upcoming elections very important. Thousands of students who have joined private poll watchdogs are focusing on ensuring the poll is fair. The poll, he added, "should be made a basic reference for learning to put democracy into practice".

"If Golkar happens to win, other parties must respect this victory," he said. Alamsyah said that what was currently a "serious concern" to many people here was the prospect of other parties not accepting a Golkar victory.

"Our people are just learning to implement democracy, its natural there will be political jolts in the future," he said.