Golkar expected to sweep elections

JAKARTA (JP): The dominant Golkar faction, with the support of the civil service and armed forces, will sweep the May general election and gain more than two-thirds of the ballot, a political scientist predicted yesterday.

J. Kristiadi expressed his belief that there was nothing left on the political map to prevent an overwhelming majority for Golkar.

"Only with divine intervention can Golkar's support slump," the head of the political science department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies said at a press briefing on the political prospects for 1997.

He predicted that Golkar will win at least 70 percent of the vote.

His prediction falls in line with Golkar's own target of 70.2 percent. At the last election in 1992, Golkar won 67.9 percent of the vote.

Some 120 million people will be eligible to vote next year.

The nation will go to the polls on May 29 to elect the House of Representatives. This will be the seventh general election since Indonesia's independence in 1945, and the sixth under President Soeharto.

Kristiadi underlined several factors as the basis for his predictions.

The first was the weakness of the two other political parties -- the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI) and the United Development Party (PPP).

The PDI is still embroiled in a leadership dispute between the government-backed Soerjadi and ousted leader Megawati Soekarnoputri. Meanwhile the PPP's has been waning in recent elections.

The second reason is the strong support of the civil service.

The Indonesian Civil Servants Corps, more than four-million strong, is directed to vote for Golkar.

Another major factor contributing to a sweeping victory is the Armed Forces' traditional support for the ruling faction.

Kristiadi pointed out that unlike in recent elections, the Armed Forces has been more blatant in its support for Golkar.

"The kind of explicit and transparent support being given is, in my opinion, only comparable to the 1971 election," he said referring to the first general election after the ascendancy of the New Order government under President Soeharto.

"It's so vigorous that we hear words like ABRI (the Armed Forces) is a Golkar cadre," he said, alluding to the fact that high ranking military officers often wear Golkar yellow at public events.

While Kristiadi did not point to anyone in particular, Army Chief Gen. R. Hartono is one notable figure who has been publicly expressing support and donning a yellow jacket.

Kristiadi believes all these factors indicate a strong political will by the government to ensure a Golkar landslide.

As a consequence, he said, political power will remain extremely centralized at the very heart of the bureaucracy.

Forecasting the political atmosphere of 1997, Kristiadi pointed to a probable tug between the forces advocating political change against those who wish to maintain the status quo, in this case, the government.

"The government still appears hesitant to move (toward greater change) for the sake of stability," he remarked.

Given the current structure of political power, Kristiadi said: "any political change toward democratization seems to be impossible without the initiative of the bureaucratic elite."

However he also pointed out that it would be a paradox to expect the bureaucracy to initiate change, since it is the nature of power to seek even more power.

He said change will come only when there is "political decay" in the elite.

"Hopefully societal forces who desire change in the direction of democracy can seize the momentum to establish a political system based on Pancasila and the 1945 Constitution," he said.

Also attending yesterday's review of 1996 and outlook for 1997 were economist Mari Pangestu along with members of the CSIS supervisory board and board of directors Jusuf Wanandi, Daoed Jusuf and Harry Tjan Silalahi. (mds)