Golkar convention

A number of interesting phenomena have emerged from the provisional results of the recently concluded legislative election. First, there was a considerably lower voter turnout compared to previous general elections, due, in part, to confusion over how to vote using a system that was entirely new. In addition, many citizens lost their right to vote because they did not receive their voting cards.

Apart from all this, however, it is probably correct to say that many eligible voters chose not to vote as a signal of either their rejection or disappointment with the behavior of our political parties and legislators over the past five years, whom they perceive as having betrayed the reform movement.

This is clearly demonstrated in the decline in support for the "old established parties", including the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the United Development Party (PPP), the National Mandate Party (PAN) and the Crescent Star Party (PBB). Even Golkar, which has now regained the pole position in terms of votes and legislative seats, is unlikely to reach the percentage of the popular vote and the absolute number of votes it gained in the last general election.

Even more clearly, the same signal is apparent from the disproportionately high number of votes for a new party, the Democratic Party, most likely due to voters' feeling of empathy for Soesilo Bambang Yudhoyono, after he was dismissed from President Megawati Soekarnoputri's Cabinet. One other interesting development is the increased support for the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), previously known as the PK, or Justice Party (Partai Keadilan), which has apparently gained at the cost of other Muslim-based parties such as PAN, PPP and PBB, and possibly also the National Awakening Party (PKB).

Different readings of all these developments over the last few days have led to the emergence of various political maneuvers displaying the various degrees of insecurity that exist among almost all the parties that participated in the legislative elections. No political party can go it alone in the presidential election, as well as in the formation of an effective government for the next five years vis-a-vis the legislative branch. One only has to listen to the high level of speculation about possible coalitions that have been circulating of late.

Amid all the uncertainty, on Monday Golkar will hold its national convention1 to choose its presidential and vice- presidential candidates. Several names have been put forward, two of whom have withdrawn, including the latest, Jusuf Kalla, who is widely perceived as one of only a few "doers" -- one of the few who really can get things done in President Megawati's Cabinet, which in the eyes of many has done little or nothing in terms of political reform.

In spite of all the speculations, however, it seems that the contest tomorrow can be narrowed down to only two major contenders: Akbar Tandjung and Wiranto, one civilian, widely perceived to be the most seasoned politician, and the other a retired four-star general. Both inherit the legacy of the authoritarian New Order regime of president Soeharto, who was brought down in a people's power movement in 1998.

Theoretically, the winner of this contest will be the one who can offer a Golkar platform that is the more promising in terms of bringing about reform. In practice, the participants in the contest will have to tread carefully as to promise a return to "stability and order" to encourage economic and political development, as during the New Order, could be counterproductive. One only has to consider the fate of one of the parties contesting the recent election that promised a return to "New Order prosperity." For all the right reasons, that party failed to gain the support of the voters.

In this country's politics, most party platforms are only skin deep. In practice, it will be political clout that determines who will be the winner in tomorrow's Golkar convention.. The winner will be the contender who can convincingly promise to give politically meaningful positions, meaning political power, to as many delegates as possible.

If this is true, the Golkar convention will not only fail to touch the political interests of the public at large, but will also prove that the party is just as confused as all the others in reformulating the role of political parties in promoting the growth of democracy in this country. That also means that whoever wins will not be able to promise his or her constituents victory in the upcoming presidential election, either during the first stage in July or the second in September.

The growth of democracy in a country can be considered healthy only if its political parties are able to channel the aspirations of the people into a national consensus, putting the public interest first. In the development of modern democracies, that role goes hand-in-hand with the growth of all the other channels through which the public express their views, such as non- governmental organizations, the nation's various non-political associations, the various religious or ethnic-based associations, the press and what are now known as the organs of civil society.

The provisional results of the legislative elections show that the people consider our current political parties as having failed, at least to some extent, in channeling their aspirations. If this continues, the danger exists that the people will channel articulate their views through non-political means. The national legislature would then take on a secondary role compared to the non-parliamentary channels by which the public conveying their wishes and hopes. Effective government would be difficult to establish, and Indonesia would suffer more political stagnation for at least the next five years. That would certainly not bode well for economic and social stability.