Global warming to badly hit Jakarta

Global warming to badly hit Jakarta

Bambang Nurbianto, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

With the world still unable or unwilling to curb carbon dioxide
(CO2) emissions, coastal cities like Jakarta should begin
preparing for the impacts of global warming, an environmental
expert said.

Agus Pratama Sari, an executive director at the environmental
research organization Pelangi, said the impact of global warming
on coastal cities would include worsening floods, infrastructure
damage, water scarcity and an increase in contagious diseases.

"All we can do now is prepare to minimize the impact of global
warming, as so far there is no indication that the joint global
effort to curb greenhouse gases will be successful," Agus said on
Monday.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimated
that the earth's temperature would increase by between 2 and 4
degrees Celsius by 2007 due to the global increase in CO2
emissions from the use of fossil fuels and deforestation.

Other causes of global warming include metana (Ch4), nitrous
oxide (N20), hidrofluorocarbons (HFC), perfluorocarbons (PFC) and
sulfur hexafluoride (SF6).

Agus said through the Kyoto Protocol the international
community would attempt to reduce CO2 emissions by 5 percent by
2012, but there were no indications that these efforts would be
successful due to a lack of commitment from developed countries,
the main users of fossil fuels.

"Even if the Kyoto Protocol is successful it is not enough to
reduce global warming, which would require a 60 percent reduction
in greenhouse emissions to create a stable earth temperature," he
said.

Experts have warned that if the process of global warming is
not curbed, sea levels will rise by up to 60 centimeters by 2070,
due to the melting ice caps at the north and south poles, causing
some coastal lands and islands to perish.

According to Agus, if this occurs nearly 50 percent of the
some 2.5 million people in North Jakarta would have difficulty
finding clean water due to the intrusion of sea water into the
groundwater.

He said an analytical model of the increase of contagious
diseases in Indonesia showed that dengue fever cases would
increase from six cases per 10,000 people in 1989 to 26 cases per
10,000 people in 2070.

"If dengue fever cases rise in coastal cities, the number of
malaria cases will go up in remote areas," Agus said, adding that
in the case of Indonesia malaria could increase from six cases
per 10,000 people in 1989 to 3,246 cases in 2070.

"And increased flooding in coastal cities due to the rising
sea levels would also lead to increases in other contagious
disease like diarrhea," he added.

Regarding the impact on the infrastructure, the Asian
Development Bank (ADB) estimates that Indonesia would suffer some
Rp 42 trillion in losses due to damaged infrastructure in coastal
areas, including roads and seaports.

Another serious impact of global warming could be food
shortages in developing countries as the soil became more barren,
cutting food production.