Global warming to badly hit Jakarta

Bambang Nurbianto, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

With the world still unable or unwilling to curb carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, coastal cities like Jakarta should begin preparing for the impacts of global warming, an environmental expert said.

Agus Pratama Sari, an executive director at the environmental research organization Pelangi, said the impact of global warming on coastal cities would include worsening floods, infrastructure damage, water scarcity and an increase in contagious diseases.

"All we can do now is prepare to minimize the impact of global warming, as so far there is no indication that the joint global effort to curb greenhouse gases will be successful," Agus said on Monday.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimated that the earth's temperature would increase by between 2 and 4 degrees Celsius by 2007 due to the global increase in CO2 emissions from the use of fossil fuels and deforestation.

Other causes of global warming include metana (Ch4), nitrous oxide (N20), hidrofluorocarbons (HFC), perfluorocarbons (PFC) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6).

Agus said through the Kyoto Protocol the international community would attempt to reduce CO2 emissions by 5 percent by 2012, but there were no indications that these efforts would be successful due to a lack of commitment from developed countries, the main users of fossil fuels.

"Even if the Kyoto Protocol is successful it is not enough to reduce global warming, which would require a 60 percent reduction in greenhouse emissions to create a stable earth temperature," he said.

Experts have warned that if the process of global warming is not curbed, sea levels will rise by up to 60 centimeters by 2070, due to the melting ice caps at the north and south poles, causing some coastal lands and islands to perish.

According to Agus, if this occurs nearly 50 percent of the some 2.5 million people in North Jakarta would have difficulty finding clean water due to the intrusion of sea water into the groundwater.

He said an analytical model of the increase of contagious diseases in Indonesia showed that dengue fever cases would increase from six cases per 10,000 people in 1989 to 26 cases per 10,000 people in 2070.

"If dengue fever cases rise in coastal cities, the number of malaria cases will go up in remote areas," Agus said, adding that in the case of Indonesia malaria could increase from six cases per 10,000 people in 1989 to 3,246 cases in 2070.

"And increased flooding in coastal cities due to the rising sea levels would also lead to increases in other contagious disease like diarrhea," he added.

Regarding the impact on the infrastructure, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) estimates that Indonesia would suffer some Rp 42 trillion in losses due to damaged infrastructure in coastal areas, including roads and seaports.

Another serious impact of global warming could be food shortages in developing countries as the soil became more barren, cutting food production.