Global recession, republic, tax reform face Australia in 1999
By Martin Parry
SYDNEY (AFP): John Howard's conservative government faces a year fraught with the threat of global recession, uncertainty over a raft of election promises, reconciliation with its indigenous population and ties with the British monarchy.
After narrowly winning a second term in October polls, Howard is expected to maintain a largely domestic focus in the early part of the year with several key votes due in the upper house Senate.
"It will be a difficult time with the key areas of pressure tax reform and unemployment which are seen as integral to Australia sustaining economic growth in such an uncertain global environment," says Rodney Smith, senior lecturer at the New South Wales School of Political Science.
"There will be a pile up of legislation to get through the Senate, but it will also be interesting to see how the government responds to delicate regional issues, such as its relationship with Indonesia."
A potential poisoned chalice for Howard is his coalition's crucial tax reform package -- the main plank of its election success.
Governor-General Sir William Deane recently described taxation reform as: "The single most important item of unfinished business in building an economic infrastructure that will enable Australia to compete and prosper in an increasingly competitive world economy."
But lack of a majority in the upper house and reliance on two independent senators has been a hindrance to Howard as he seeks ways to have the package passed.
The government has already caved-in for a Senate review of its economic modeling and the impact of a goods and services tax.
The inquiry must report by April 19, giving the government six weeks of parliament to push the legislation through in time to meet its June 30 deadline.
In the coming year, the Senate will also decide whether a further slab of state-owned telecommunications giant Telstra Corp. will be privatized.
Analysts say this will be central to the government's plans.
"The government sees it as bringing further benefits to Australian taxpayers by paying off public debt and reducing interest payments," says Smith.
Another key element will be strong and sustained jobs growth -- one of the few policies identified by the International Monetary Fund as wanting.
As the next millennium approaches, Australia's future ties with the British monarchy will begin to figure more prominently, although Howard, a staunch monarchist, is expected to downplay its importance.
He has committed the country to a constitutional referendum by the end of the year that will give the Australian people an opportunity to decide whether the country becomes a republic.
"Howard would prefer not to have it on the agenda and will make it as low key as possible because he'll probably lose," Smith says.
A constitutional convention has agreed on the model to be put to the vote, with a presidential list to be nominated by the public, selected by Howard and ratified by a two-thirds majority of both houses of parliament.
Draft laws should be ready early in the year.
Although the far-right One Nation party had a disastrous 1998 its anti-immigration platform attracted eight percent of the national vote.
Howard has pledged the coming year will see a concerted effort to win back the voters who deserted to One Nation.
"I think there's an obligation despite (leader Pauline) Hanson's defeat to try and win them back, he said. "I haven't formulated the total battle plan but one way of course is to govern well and to do what you say you're going to do."
Reconciliation with Aborigines has also been put near the top of the new year agenda, the prime minister's office says.
Relations between the government and Aboriginal leaders have been strained since Howard won his long battle during the year to wind back indigenous landrights.
The government has reaffirmed its commitment to formulating a document of understanding with the 386,000-strong Aboriginal community which it hopes to complete in 1999.