Global powers wrestling with the future
Ralf Dahrendorf, Project Syndicate
Looking back over the turbulent year that is now coming to an end, one is tempted to focus on what American leaders have come to call the Greater Middle East. Such a survey would obviously take us to Iraq, to Israel, and Palestine -- and to terrorism.
Lasting peace in the Middle East could lead to greater prosperity and cooperation in the world. But if we take a wider view, the problems of the Middle East appear to be but one aspect of deeper shifts among the powers of the world. Indeed, tectonic changes became visible in 2004. We have begun to see the "powers of the future," to borrow the title of former German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt's recent bestselling book.
Chancellor Schmidt is certain of two developments. The United States remains the key player, and China's power will continue to grow. He is less certain about the future of Europe, Russia, and the Middle East.
To be sure, 2004 has seen the confirmation of America's hard power -- and its voters' choice of a politics of values rather than of interests. Americans may not want their soldiers and military hardware in dozens, if not hundreds, of places around the world, but they accept a president who offers simple -- often martial -- certainties.
One may also wonder whether this president could lead them in another direction, to traditional Republican isolationism. After all, it is the Democrats who have traditionally taken America to war. In any case, security guaranteed by military power will continue to be an American concern.
But while America's hard power dominates the world scene, its soft power declined this year. The U.S. lost some of its attractiveness for many, and Americans are unpopular in many parts of the world. The decline in overseas visitors, and notably in the number of foreign students in the U.S., is the immediate result of stricter visa laws, but it is an important factor in the weakening of America's global hegemony.
Soft power begins with economic power. America's twin fiscal and trade deficits may prove to be solvable problems, but new ways will have to be tried to resolve them. At a recent conference, U.S. government representatives were unimpressed by European pleas to do something about the deficits -- and the falling dollar that has resulted from them. "That is not a European problem," the Americans responded. "It is an issue between us and China."
All at once, China is rapidly emerging as a growing economic force. It not only has considerable dollar reserves, but has also become the manufacturing capital of the world. American and European jobs increasingly migrate to China. Early hints at the reaction could be heard in the American presidential election campaign, with the frequent protests against outsourcing and China's pegged exchange rate. But the trend will not be stopped. It is surely only a matter of time -- a short time -- before China makes its political and military weight felt.
This leaves the uncertain future of Russia and those still in the Russian orbit, like Ukraine. This year witnessed a decline in democracy and the rule of law across what Putin calls the "former Soviet space." The problem is a challenge especially for Europe.
At first sight, 2004 was a good year for the European Union, with enlargement to 25 members completed in May a notable success. Enlargement was not only a triumph for democracy and the rule of law in the postcommunist countries to the west of Russia, but it is also an indication of the magnetism of the EU, and thus of its soft power.
Eastward expansion of the EU enables the New Europe to emulate the economic dynamism of other recent members, like Spain and Ireland. Enlargement has produced a Union confident enough to engage more explicitly -- and even with elements of hard power -- in the Balkans, Afghanistan, and elsewhere. It has also provided the courage to open accession negotiations with Turkey.
Yet one cannot help agreeing with Chancellor Schmidt when he sees Europe's future shrouded in uncertainty. There is no clear recognition of the fact that Europe's soft power means little unless it is allied with the hard power of the U.S. But there was no progress in 2004 in recreating a transatlantic partnership that recognizes the massive changes occurring in world affairs. Pathetic attempts to go it alone have not made Europe stronger, and anti-Americanism harms Europe more than the U.S.
Thus, at the end of 2004, the most important global task remains unresolved: Creation of a confident nucleus for the Free World. An alliance of those who espouse and practice liberal democracy might provide a pole of certainty in a highly uncertain world. Let us hope that 2005 will bring us a few steps closer to that objective.
Ralf Dahrendorf, author of numerous acclaimed books and a former European Commissioner from Germany, is a member of the British House of Lords, a former Rector of the London School of Economics, and a former Warden of St. Antony's College, Oxford.