Gleneagles, a substantial step forward

Tony Blair, Financial Times, London

This week, I am visiting China and India. Almost every day, we hear news of the extraordinary economic transformations gripping these countries. Over the past 20 years, China's gross domestic product growth has averaged 9.5 percent and India's 6 percent. At these rates of growth, India will be in the world's top six economies in 15 years and China will be second only to the U.S.

Between them, China and India have lifted literally hundreds of millions of people out of absolute poverty over the past decade. This has not come without significant environmental and social costs and there is still much to be done but it is a remarkable achievement.

It is clear that developed countries need to move quickly not only to be competitive with, but also to strengthen their dialogue with India and China, and other emerging economies. This is essential if we are to find equitable solutions to global environmental problems. India and China could be consuming 20 percent of the world's energy output by 2020.

At the Group of Eight's summit in Gleneagles in July, leaders from seven African countries joined those of the industrialized nations. The African leaders set out their commitment to reducing poverty. In response, the G8 leaders committed to the most detailed and far-reaching package ever agreed for Africa at a G8 summit.

The Gleneagles commitments on Africa are a substantial step forward. But we recognized that the summit itself had to be a step in a much longer campaign. A series of international meetings between now and the end of the year provide critical opportunities for carrying the anti-poverty agenda forward.

At the United Nations summit next month in New York we need to gain international commitment to accelerating progress towards the Millennium Development Goals -- including halving poverty, getting every child into school and reducing the child mortality rate by two-thirds.

So I hope that we will also agree at the summit important measures on aid, debt and trade and on the establishment of a new Peace Building Commission and a Human Rights Council, as well as endorsing the principle of the "responsibility to protect" vulnerable populations.

The following week in Washington we will be pressing partners in the International Monetary Fund and World Bank to agree to implement the G8 proposal for 100 percent multilateral debt cancellation for many of the world's poorest countries. And crucial will be the World Trade Organization's ministerial conference in Hong Kong in December.

We made substantial progress on climate change at Gleneagles. We all agreed that climate change is happening now, that human activity is contributing to it and that it could affect every part of the globe. We did not resolve every difference. But we were unanimous that the problem was serious enough to warrant action now.

My hope is that the political divisions over Kyoto are receding and that there will now be political and practical action, helping to lay the groundwork for a global agreement beyond 2012. And the UN climate change conference in Montreal in December is an opportunity to start the debate about what that agreement might be.

Wen Jiabao, China's premier, Josi Manuel Barroso, European Commission president, and I will later today in Beijing make a joint EU-China declaration on climate change, which will include the provision by the EU of a clean coal power station.

When WTO ministers meet in Hong Kong this December they have a huge responsibility. A successful negotiation can deliver enormous gains to the world economy and lift millions out of poverty. All countries stand to benefit from more trade. But the WTO has not yet responded sufficiently to the needs of developing countries.

The key is agriculture. In Africa, increased access to rich countries' markets is an important way to deliver this. But there are many obstacles to overcome -- high tariffs, quotas, subsidies and weak capacity.

The EU has taken some first steps on agriculture, reforming the Common Agriculture Policy in 2003/2004 and opening its markets for the poorest countries. Reform of the sugar regime to address the dumping of surpluses on developing country markets is set to follow this year under Britain's EU presidency.

Following the G8 commitment at Gleneagles to set a credible date for the end of agricultural export subsidies, it should be possible at Hong Kong to set a deadline of 2010. But we need to go further. It is our moral responsibility to help those in poverty by allowing them the means to grow and prosper. And it is clearly also in our own economic interest.

We must also ensure that poor countries can capitalize on better access to other countries' markets. This means addressing the need highlighted by the Commission for Africa to build Africa's capacity to trade, and allowing them to determine their own economic policies.

Clearly there is an enormous amount at stake in Hong Kong. Failure to make progress could even be fatal for the trade round. I was therefore pleased at the strength of commitment that G8 and other international leaders expressed to making a success of the round at Gleneagles. We must ensure over the next few months that we translate it into the kind of results the world needs and has a right to expect.

The writer is the British Prime Minister. This article is reprinted with permission from the Prime Minister office.