Give peace a chance

The peace agreement signed by the hostile East Timor factions in Dili on Wednesday comes at a crucial time when the issue of the troubled province is close to an international settlement. The deal, brokered by the Armed Forces and endorsed by the local Catholic clergy, should halt the violence between those seeking independence and those wanting to remain part of Indonesia, clashes which have bordered on a civil war in the last four months.

Although short on details -- for instance, the hastily drawn- up treaty makes no reference to disarming the factions -- it still marks the beginning of renewed concerted efforts to put back on track the process to determine East Timor's future.

The recent clashes indicate the situation remains precarious. Whether peace prevails depends on the willingness of all parties concerned to abide by the terms of the agreement, including cessation of all armed hostilities.

Restoring peace in East Timor is indeed vital to allowing any meaningful dialog on its future to take place. This includes the talks underway this week at the United Nations, in which Indonesia is presenting its offer to grant special status to East Timor, replete with sweeping autonomy powers. If approved by Portugal and the United Nations, the next step would be for the world body to organize a plebiscite for the East Timorese in July to decide on the proposal.

Two alternative scenarios are envisioned unfolding from this process. The first is for the East Timorese to accept the autonomy offer. The territory would remain part of Indonesia, and the international community would recognize Jakarta's sovereignty. The second would occur in the event the East Timorese reject the offer. In this case, President B.J. Habibie has indicated that Indonesia will agree to the separation of East Timor, perhaps as early as Jan. 1, 2000. Either scenario envisages a peaceful process and a dignified solution. It will be a face-saving exit for Indonesia, constantly criticized for its occupation since 1975 of the former Portuguese territory.

There is a third possible scenario for East Timor, the worst- case scenario. All hope for any of the above solutions would be dashed if violence continued in East Timor and the territory became embroiled in a full-scale civil war.

Until the peace agreement was signed on Wednesday, this appeared to be the most likely outcome. The intensifying violence was threatening to derail the entire UN-sponsored process. It would be tragic if the East Timorese, having reached such an advanced stage of negotiations at the United Nations, were to scuttle their chance to determine their future.

The peace agreement must be given a chance to work, if only to see the internationally accepted process to its end. Since all the important players have endorsed the treaty, there are grounds for optimism that it might just work. Now it is up to them to prevail over their supporters' emotions and to restrain them from indulging in senseless violence.

To a large extent, the peace agreement also hinges on the attitude and behavior of the Indonesian military, the only institution on the ground which will oversee whether the factions abide by the treaty. Given the long history of its past atrocities against proindependence supporters in East Timor, the military will have to prove that it is capable of playing the honest broker in supervising the agreement.

Allegations that the military, or elements of the military, were training and arming pro-Indonesia militias and that security forces watched while the militia attacked proindependence supporters last weekend are not helping to restore East Timorese confidence in the military. It is noteworthy that proindependence leaders signed the agreement despite the allegations.

That is the spirit that all who are concerned about East Timor must show. All parties, without exception, should give this peace agreement a chance.