Give peace a chance
Give peace a chance
The peace agreement signed by the hostile East Timor factions
in Dili on Wednesday comes at a crucial time when the issue of
the troubled province is close to an international settlement.
The deal, brokered by the Armed Forces and endorsed by the local
Catholic clergy, should halt the violence between those seeking
independence and those wanting to remain part of Indonesia,
clashes which have bordered on a civil war in the last four
months.
Although short on details -- for instance, the hastily drawn-
up treaty makes no reference to disarming the factions -- it
still marks the beginning of renewed concerted efforts to put
back on track the process to determine East Timor's future.
The recent clashes indicate the situation remains precarious.
Whether peace prevails depends on the willingness of all parties
concerned to abide by the terms of the agreement, including
cessation of all armed hostilities.
Restoring peace in East Timor is indeed vital to allowing any
meaningful dialog on its future to take place. This includes the
talks underway this week at the United Nations, in which
Indonesia is presenting its offer to grant special status to East
Timor, replete with sweeping autonomy powers. If approved by
Portugal and the United Nations, the next step would be for the
world body to organize a plebiscite for the East Timorese in July
to decide on the proposal.
Two alternative scenarios are envisioned unfolding from this
process. The first is for the East Timorese to accept the
autonomy offer. The territory would remain part of Indonesia, and
the international community would recognize Jakarta's
sovereignty. The second would occur in the event the East
Timorese reject the offer. In this case, President B.J. Habibie
has indicated that Indonesia will agree to the separation of East
Timor, perhaps as early as Jan. 1, 2000. Either scenario
envisages a peaceful process and a dignified solution. It will be
a face-saving exit for Indonesia, constantly criticized for its
occupation since 1975 of the former Portuguese territory.
There is a third possible scenario for East Timor, the worst-
case scenario. All hope for any of the above solutions would be
dashed if violence continued in East Timor and the territory
became embroiled in a full-scale civil war.
Until the peace agreement was signed on Wednesday, this
appeared to be the most likely outcome. The intensifying violence
was threatening to derail the entire UN-sponsored process. It
would be tragic if the East Timorese, having reached such an
advanced stage of negotiations at the United Nations, were to
scuttle their chance to determine their future.
The peace agreement must be given a chance to work, if only to
see the internationally accepted process to its end. Since all
the important players have endorsed the treaty, there are grounds
for optimism that it might just work. Now it is up to them to
prevail over their supporters' emotions and to restrain them from
indulging in senseless violence.
To a large extent, the peace agreement also hinges on the
attitude and behavior of the Indonesian military, the only
institution on the ground which will oversee whether the factions
abide by the treaty. Given the long history of its past
atrocities against proindependence supporters in East Timor, the
military will have to prove that it is capable of playing the
honest broker in supervising the agreement.
Allegations that the military, or elements of the military,
were training and arming pro-Indonesia militias and that security
forces watched while the militia attacked proindependence
supporters last weekend are not helping to restore East Timorese
confidence in the military. It is noteworthy that proindependence
leaders signed the agreement despite the allegations.
That is the spirit that all who are concerned about East Timor
must show. All parties, without exception, should give this peace
agreement a chance.