Get serious about Karadzic

The major powers agreed this week in London that Radovan Karadzic, the Bosnian Serb political leader, belongs in The Hague standing trial for war crimes, including the mass killing of civilians in Srebrenica one year ago this week. Yet the American, British, French, German and Russian governments failed to agree on any new diplomatic or economic pressure to achieve this worthy goal.

It is a sadly familiar pattern. But with the elections that will probably determine the ultimate success of the Bosnia peace agreement now only two months off, there is very little time left for such empty posturing. Muscular diplomacy, including economic sanctions and high-level arm-twisting, are needed -- starting at once.

Hearings by the international War Crimes Tribunal over the past few weeks have begun to spell out the prosecutor's case against Karadzic, based on his responsibility for the Srebrenica massacre and other atrocities in the course of the 44-month Bosnia war.

This week, the tribunal's investigators began excavating the 12 mass graves at Srebrenica believed to hold the bodies of some 8,000 Muslim males who were taken away and allegedly beaten and shot to death by Bosnian Serb forces following the city's fall.

On Thursday, the tribunal issued international arrest warrants for Karadzic and his military chief, Ratko Mladic. These oblige every UN member country to arrest either man should he venture into their territory.

Unfortunately, Karadzic seems inclined to remain in Serb-held Bosnia. Removing him from Bosnian soil is critical if the elections scheduled for Sept. 14 are to be successful.

Within both the Serb-held part of Bosnia and the Muslim- Croatian section, there are politicians and voters who favor tolerance of other ethnic groups and eventual national reconciliation. But moderate candidates do not stand a chance in the Bosnian Serb region so long as Karadzic controls the ruling party apparatus and can send gangs of thugs to keep them from campaigning or frighten them out of the race altogether.

Some in Washington are advocating a military commando operation to remove Karadzic. But forcing him out by diplomatic means or economic sanctions runs less risk of renewed combat.

The best point of leverage for such pressure is Serbia's president, Slobodan Milosevic, who still has considerable influence in the Bosnian Serb capital, Pale. Milosevic virtually created the Bosnian Serb government four years ago, sustained it militarily and economically throughout the war, and now serves as the Bosnian Serbs' principal protector against the outside world.

But he is far more concerned with his own political survival and the recovery of Serbia's economy than with the fate of Karadzic, whom he now considers a potential rival. He might well be convinced under threat of sanctions to be more helpful in securing Karadzic's early removal from Bosnia.

Unfortunately, the hapless ditherings of the chief international civilian official in Bosnia, Carl Bildt, and other European diplomats have amounted to meaningless huffing and puffing. If other countries remain reluctant to act, President Clinton should dispatch Vice President Al Gore, Secretary of State Warren Christopher, or the national security adviser, Anthony Lake, directly to Belgrade to inform Milosevic that Washington wants results without further delay. The time for serious diplomacy is right now.

-- The New York Times