Geopolitics behind Jiang's trip to SE Asia

Geopolitics behind Jiang's trip to SE Asia

By Peter Harmsen

BEIJING (AFP): When Chinese President Jiang Zemin embarks on a
week-long trip to Laos, Cambodia and Brunei this week he will be
carrying China's ambition to be a regional power, but will be
weighed down by history.

It is the first time since the 1960s that a Chinese head of
state has paid a visit to any of these countries, but analysts
say Beijing's hope of gaining influence in Southeast Asia should
not be underestimated.

"China dreams of becoming some sort of uncontested elder
brother in the region," said Jean-Pierre Cabestan, director of
the French Center for Research on Contemporary China in Hong
Kong.

What complicates this task is its past as the foremost
supporter of the Khmer Rouge movement, whose genocidal regime in
Cambodia in the late 1970s led to the deaths of an estimated 1.7
million people.

Cambodian police Monday barred students from handing a
petition to China's embassy asking for an apology.

Beijing has made clear it is not going to address the issue
during Jiang's trip, let alone apologize for it.

"This is an internal affair of Cambodia," said a foreign
ministry spokeswoman. "This time the focus of the meeting between
President Jiang and all the leaders of the three countries will
be on how to further strengthen cooperation."

China's focus on Southeast Asia is the result of its location
on the map, on top of a region that functions as a crossroads for
trade.

"No outside power has a larger stake (in Southeast Asia) than
does China," American professors Andrew Nathan and Robert Ross
wrote in The Great Wall and the Empty Fortress, a book about
Chinese foreign policy.

"Geography forces China to see the region much as America sees
Latin America or Russia sees Eastern Europe."

Geo-politics is likely to make a major mark on Jiang's visits
to Laos, scheduled for Nov. 11 to 13, and Cambodia, set for Nov.
13 and 14.

"One of the aims is to balance U.S. influence in a region
which remains dependent on outside support," said Cabestan.

After the fall of communism ended decades of Soviet influence
in Southeast Asia, the United States has returned as the main
outside power and U.S. President Bill Clinton is due in Vietnam
for an historic visit later this month.

This adds to Chinese fears of U.S. encroachment, already
strong because the United States is active at the opposite end of
East Asia where it has just concluded its highest-level talks
ever with reclusive North Korea.

But the race for influence in its immediate neighborhood is
one China may never win, according to Cabestan.

"The more powerful China becomes in East Asia, the more the
countries there will try to keep close ties with United States,"
he said.

Alongside China's competition with the United States, it is
involved in a parallel game over influence with Vietnam,
historically an important local player in Southeast Asia.

That could be why Vietnam on Tuesday announced its president
Tran Duc Luong would visit Cambodia on Nov. 27, on the heels of
Jiang's visit.

China faces an uphill struggle, since the Cambodian
leadership's pro-Beijing lobby is characterized by observers as
small and insignificant.

Its pro-Vietnam lobby is influential and led by Premier Hun
Sen, a former militant communist who was installed as head of a
regime after Vietnam invaded Cambodia in 1979.

This leaves China with little hope of a decisive change in its
favor, and it may have only modest expectations.

"China wants the Cambodian leadership to respect China's
interests. It's not in China's interest to foster a pro-Chinese
faction, because it would be counterproductive," said Joseph
Cheng, a political scientist at City University of Hong Kong.

"But it hopes to see Cambodia strike a good balance between
China and Vietnam."

Jiang will arrive in Brunei on Nov. 15 for an informal summit
of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum.

The actual state visit to the sultanate does not begin until
two days later and will focus on business and economics.

Besides meeting with the sultan, Jiang will brief local
businesspeople on the opportunities they can expect from China's
2001-2005 five-year plan, according to a Chinese foreign ministry
official.