GDP in black for '99, 4th quarter best

JAKARTA (JP): The country's economy continued to book strong growth in the fourth quarter of 1999, pushing it back into the black for the entire year.

The Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) reported on Wednesday that the country's gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter grew by 5.76 percent compared to the same period of 1998.

But if compared to the previous quarter, the GDP grew 0.9 percent.

Due to the strong GDP growth in the fourth quarter, Indonesia posted economic growth of 0.23 percent for the year, compared to a contraction of over 13.2 percent in 1998.

"This indicates the beginning of economic recovery for Indonesia," BPS chairman Sugito Suwito told a news conference. "We are optimistic that GDP will continue to increase this year and the years to come."

BPS estimated GDP would increase a further 3.68 percent in the first quarter of 2000 over the fourth quarter of 1999, and by 6.51 percent over the same period of 1999.

The agency predicts that GDP growth for the whole of 2000 will reach 4 percent, which corresponds to forecasts of the government and Bank Indonesia.

"I foresee that economic growth will be higher next year, because of the progress in corporate and banking restructuring, which would have positive impacts on economic activities," he said.

GDP value based on 1993 constant prices totaled Rp 376.9 trillion in 1999, a 0.23 percent increase from Rp 376.1 trillion in 1998. In current prices, GDP value increased to Rp 1,107.3 trillion last year from Rp 1,002.3 trillion in 1998.

Because of increasing GDP and strengthening of the rupiah against the U.S. dollar, Indonesia's per capita income rose to US$682.20 in 1999 from $514.80 in 1998.

Last year's per capita income was calculated based on the rupiah's average exchange rate for the year of 7,882 to the U.S. dollar. The 1998 per capita income was based on the average rupiah exchange rate of 9,597 to the greenback.

Per capita income reached a peak in 1996 of $1,154.90, but dropped to $1,109.80 in 1997 when the economic crisis struck.

"It will need four years to five years for Indonesia to reach the 1996 level of per capita income," Sugito said.

Sugito expressed optimism that the country's economy would return to a precrisis growth rate of 7 percent per annum in the near future because of the improving domestic political situation.

All indications show the economic recovery is under way, he said.

Most economic sectors booked positive growth in the fourth quarter of last year, except agriculture and electricity, gas and clean water, which slumped by minus 9.78 percent and 0.74 percent respectively.

"Especially in the case of agriculture, the drop was seasonal. The fourth quarter was not the harvest season and therefore agriculture posted such a sharp drop," Sugito said.

All other sectors posted positive growth. The mining sector grew 6 percent, manufacturing 2.78 percent, construction 2.46 percent, trade, hotel and restaurant 3.93 percent, transportation and communications 3.50 percent, finance and leasing 3.24 percent and other services 0.3 percent.

For the whole of 1999, a number of sectors still booked negative growth, including mining (-0.11 percent), trade, hotel and restaurant (-1.1 percent), transportations and communications (-0.72 percent) and finance and leasing (-8.67 percent).

Sectors posting positive growth for 1999 included agriculture (0.67 percent), manufacturing (2.19 percent), electricity, gas and clean water (7.25 percent), construction (1.15 percent) and other services (2.82 percent).

The industrial sector dominated last year's GDP with 25.78 percent, an increase from 24.48 percent in 1998, followed by agriculture with 19.41 percent (from 18.06 percent in 1998), trade 16.51 percent (16.67 percent), mining 9.9 percent (13.73 percent), services 8.89 percent (8.23 percent), finance 6.36 percent (6.98 percent) and others 13.15 percent (11.84 percent).

Demands driving GDP growth last year were mainly from household consumption and government spending, which grew 1.48 percent and 0.69 percent respectively.

Other demand components booked negative growth. Exports of goods and services dropped 32.06 percent, imports slumped 40.9 percent and the formation of fixed capital dropped 20.78 percent

Household consumption accounted for most of GDP with 73.96 percent, increasing from 66.19 percent in 1998, followed by exports of goods and services (35.04 percent, down from 50.51 percent in 1998), imports (27.14 percent, down from 41.21 percent) and the formation of fixed capital (19.34 percent, from 22.08 percent). (rid)