Gasoline lead phase-out? The time's still not right

Gasoline lead phase-out? The time's still not right

Bob Larbey
Jakarta

In 2003, Indonesia's government expressed its intention to ban
leaded gasoline in 2005. This would mean the entire gasoline-
powered vehicle fleet, ie cars, taxis, motor cycles, mopeds and
bajas will next year be running on unleaded fuel. One of the
urgent issues that need to be addressed by President Susilo
Bambang Yudhoyono and his cabinet is a review of this policy.
They should be asking themselves the question, is the time and
economic climate right for gasoline lead phase-out next year? In
my opinion the answer will be a firm "no".

At a time when the price of crude oil has dramatically
escalated it makes sound economic sense to delay lead phase-out
-- which will be exceedingly costly and consume more energy --
until oil supplies and prices stabilize, and ideally fall.

Given that producing only unleaded gasoline would be extremely
costly, are there paramount environmental arguments in favor of a
rapid lead phase-out, regardless of the expense? In my opinion,
no. I contend that there is no medical evidence on the effects of
lead on health to oppose the view that the orderly gradual lead
phase-out in Indonesia, which is already underway, should
continue.

However, there are always some residential and industrial
environments where unsafe lead levels can be found. But focusing
solely on gasoline lead removal to achieve perceived improvements
runs the risk of deflecting attention away from other sources of
lead which might warrant urgent investigation and remedial
action.

Extra energy consumption in the refinery to produce unleaded
fuel is in the form of crude oil. It results from the need for
more severe refining to produce gasoline components, such as
aromatics from catalytic reformers, which are employed to replace
the octane numbers lost by lead's elimination. The exact figures
involved depend largely upon the octane quality of both the
leaded and unleaded gasolines marketed, as well as the current
refinery configurations.

Huge investment demands arise from the essential requirement
for expensive imports of "hi-tech" refinery equipment. Catalytic
reforming, isomerisation and alkylation units are commonly
employed to produce high octane gasoline components.

Plants can also be installed to manufacture the so-called
"oxygenate" compounds of which MTBE and ethanol are the most
widely used. However, extra energy consumption and high
investment costs are involved here, too. At the moment Indonesia
imports expensive High octane gasoline blending components(HOBC)
from Singapore to provide octane numbers lost by lead's
elimination from gasoline in Jakarta.

Despite concern in some quarters over the health risks
associated with gasoline lead, there is environmental
justification to support the retention of leaded fuel for a
longer period. The gasoline components necessary to replace
lead's octane numbers can themselves contribute to harmful
exhaust emissions.

Aromatics, which include benzene, together with oxygenates
such as alcohols, are by far the most popular octane enhancers
employed worldwide. But these gasoline components increase the
cancer inducing, smog-forming, lung irritant potential and the
acid rain content of exhaust gas from "non-cat" vehicles.

There is an important technical facet to the gasoline lead
removal debate. Lead possesses a lubricating property that
prevents exhaust valve seat recession (vsr) in older cars fitted
with cast iron engines.

It's a fact that most of the world's leading industrialized
nations have already completed the transition to totally unleaded
gasoline. Interestingly, the U.S. and Europe took some 20 years
or so to phase lead out.

Why was unleaded introduced in the first place? Initially
lead-free fuel was needed for catalyst-equipped cars introduced
into the U.S. and Japan markets in the mid-1970s. In the U.S.,
catalysts were fitted so that the car manufacturers could meet
the U.S. government's exhaust emissions limits mandated at that
time to improve air quality, as required by the 1970 Clean Air
Act.

At a worrying time of high and still rising crude oil prices
it would be prudent for Indonesia to delay the high capital
investment and imports of even more HOBC involved in making all
gasoline unleaded. This policy would not in any way compromise
the country's commitment to complete gasoline lead phase-out as
soon as the economic climate improves.

Historically, because they are very costly measures, the
wealthiest countries such as the U.S., Canada, Germany and
Switzerland were among the first to reduce lead contents of
gasoline and then phase out lead altogether. Other nations
followed suit as and when they could accept the high cost
implications.

During my visits to Indonesia in the 1990s, it became
abundantly clear that urban air quality urgently needed
improving. But I believe that the pollutants of greatest concern
and which were and still are causing the greatest human health
problems are particulates, mainly originating from 2-stroke and
diesel-powered vehicles, carbon monoxide, unburned hydrocarbons
and oxides of nitrogen.

Because they are poorly maintained and serviced, the majority
of vehicles are fuel inefficient and gross emitters. Significant
improvements in air quality would accrue from attention to this
aspect of vehicle ownership. An inspection and maintenance
program would help greatly. To make matters worse, car engines
are designed or tuned to run on a lower octane grade of gasoline,
which makes them fuel inefficient.

Superficially, the lead phase-out issue appears to be a
relatively simple one of comparing the lead and health risk with
the cost of refinery conversion and extra energy consumption. But
the issue has further facets of some importance. As already
mentioned, consideration needs to be given to the health and
environmental risks associated with increased usage of certain
octane enhancing components.

Doubtless, Indonesia's new government will be reminded that
the "Blue Sky" initiative of 1996 targeted 2000 as the lead
phase-out date. Also it will be told that a regeneration of "Blue
Sky" in July 1999 aimed at January 2003 for leaded gasoline
removal. However, to be fair to the authorities in control at
that time there were good economic reasons for these delays.

The burden of huge extra costs and subsidies just could not be
tolerated. Furthermore, there were other more pressing priorities
for the country's limited budget. If anything, there is now even
greater justification for delaying the completion of the
transition to unleaded fuel. Jakarta going totally unleaded in
2003 was a significant, if costly, achievement.

The writer is a UK-based international consultant on fuels,
engines and emissions. Until the early 1990s he was first
secretary and then chairman of the European Oil Industry's Co-
operative Octane Requirement Committee.