Garuda may book first losses since '98

Rendi A. Witular, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

For the first time since the crisis, national flag-carrier Garuda Indonesia may have suffered losses as a result of higher fuel prices and stiffer industry competition in 2004.

Garuda strategic, planning and finance director Wiradharma B. Oka said on Wednesday the airline's 2004 revenue -- projected to be higher than in 2003 -- would be insufficient to cover the soaring price of fuel.

"Like most airlines in the domestic and regional markets, Garuda is likely to record losses in 2004 ... We are not able to announce the exact figure yet, but it is estimated to reach billions of rupiah," said Oka.

He added that the official figure would be released sometime next month.

Garuda recorded a projected 2004 revenue of about Rp 10 trillion (US$1.1 billion), a 20 percent increase from Rp 8.3 trillion in 2003. The rise was attributed mostly to a higher passenger load of about eight million, up from seven million in 2003.

However, with the airline having to spend an additional Rp 700 billion or so on fuel costs last year, its financial balance would likely head into the red, Oka said.

Garuda had set a fuel price ceiling of about $35 per barrel for 2004, below the actual average of $38 per barrel. The price had risen to as high as $54 a barrel during the year.

Fuel makes up about 30 percent of the airline's operational costs.

Another cause of losses was tougher competition in the industry, with a surge in new airlines that has driven down ticket prices. Many of the upstart carriers are offering local and international routes at lower prices than Garuda.

"We have had to lower our ticket prices to compete with them, which has pushed back our profit margin even further," said Oka.

Despite the loss in revenue, Oka was upbeat over Garuda's prospects for 2005 due to a speedier pace of economic recovery: The airline projects a 15 percent growth in revenue and 10 percent increase in passenger load.

With regard to repaying Rp. 1.3 trillion in mandatory convertible bonds (MCB), which will mature in 2006, Oka said there was a possibility that bond holders would convert the MCB into equity.

The bond holders are state-owned Bank Mandiri and airport operators PT Angkasa Pura I and PT Angkasa Pura II.

Garuda nearly went bankrupt in 1998 because of the Asian financial crisis, which caused the rupiah to depreciate steeply, and a massive debt accumulated from years of inefficiency and internal corruption.

During Soeharto's New Order regime, many government officials had allegedly used state companies as their personal cash cow.

In 2001, the company underwent debt restructuring, with creditors agreeing to extend the payment period by five years until 2010.