Funeral delay sign of Kim dynasty woes

By Harvey Stockwin

HONG KONG (JP): The postponement of the funeral of the late North Korean President Kim Il-sung from July 17 to 19 could be the first signal that the Kim Dynasty is experiencing difficulty in establishing itself.

A mass rally memorial service, now set for the following day July 20, will more clearly indicate which way things are going as the new Great Leader Kim Jong-il seeks to grasp the power long wielded by his father.

Some sources dismiss thoughts of trouble, saying that the dynastic succession is proceeding without a hitch. Kil Il-sung and Kim Jong-il had such a long time to establish the dynasty, it is argued, that it is unlikely their handiwork can be quickly undone. As ever, North Korea remains shrouded in secrecy and there is little factual basis even for speculation.

Nevertheless the postponement is curious to say the least. It has to be first set against the twin facts that the Korean Worker's Party (KWP) Central Committee and the Supreme People's Assembly (SPA) have either been meeting, or have met, since their members were urgently called to Pyongyang immediately after Kim Il-sung's death.

The North Korean people have not yet been told anything about those meetings. There has been no announcement that the KWPCC has appointed Kim Jong-il as KWP Secretary-General or that the SPA has made him North Korea's new President.

It has been assumed that these announcements that the son had inherited the father's remaining titles (Kim Jong-il is already commander-in-chief of the armed forces) were being withheld until after the funeral. Now the contrary possibility exists that the funeral was postponed because either the KWP or the SPA are not ready to make their announcements.

Such speculation fits in with one conceivable scenario for the succession - that Kim Jong-il will sustain the dynasty but will be forced to share power or titles either with other members of Kim Il-sung's family, or with other members of the North Korean ruling elite.

Kim Il-sung's brother, wife and youngest son -- respectively Kim Jong-il's uncle, stepmother and half-brother -- are all known to be politically involved and could therefore play roles in the succession which may not completely attune with the wishes of Kim Jong-il.

One speculation is that the brother and uncle, Vice President Kim Yong-ju, could be elevated to the Presidency, since he has had experience in dealing with foreigners, while Kim Jong-il contents himself with the domestic tasks of being boss of the KWP.

The official excuse for the funeral postponement, that more time is needed for people to pay their respects at Kim Il-sung's lying-in-state, is questionable.

Mourning by the masses in North Korea is taking place at the many statues of the old Great Leader around the country. By the middle of this past week, Radio Pyongyang was already noting that 17.5 million of North Korea's 22 million citizens had visited one of the statues.

Given the draconian powers of the police state, it seems highly likely that by now the other 4.5 million have also done their duty.

As is customary in communist states, the mourners at Kim Il- sung's actual bier consist largely of middle to high level cadres of the KWP. It would hardly seem necessary to increase their number, since many have already presumably paid their respects.

Additionally, the North Korean government had already had one week to organize the funeral before the postponement was announced. Given the efficient way in which the KWP has organized the mass mourning of the whole nation at the Kim Il-sung statues, it hardly needs any more time for that task.

No special arrangements have to be made for foreign mourners since a blanket ban on foreigners attending has been instituted, with only a few minor exceptions being made for Overseas Koreans.

So there are clear grounds for suspicion that some other reason has caused the postponement. That reason could be politics. It is possible that the Kim Dynasty has aroused so many discontents during its long rule that these are already surfacing, through maneuvering within the political elite.

So far, the official North Korean media, while giving Kim Jong-il the title of Great Leader, has merely referred to him being "raised up" to the top of the party, nation and armed forces.

This statement could of course mean that the succession is proceeding smoothly. Equally the few known facts also suggest that Kim Jong-il is being so elevated that he actually becomes a mere figurehead rather than a power-wielder. In other words, those within the power elite seeking to take control want the legitimacy which Kim can provide but do not want his allegedly erratic personality running the government.

The postponement could also signify that the dynasty, while in power, feels insecure, and wants to arouse even more mass hysteria as a means of shoring up its totalitarian control.

It could even be that Kim Jong-il is so intoxicated with the hysterical mass adulation, which that control has already managed to arouse on his behalf in the last few days, that he wants to continue the exercise a little while longer, even though it is normally the Korean custom not to wait this long before conducting a funeral.

Yet the announcement of the memorial service to be held on Wednesday, after the funeral, is interesting because it surely poses a challenge which the new Great Leader cannot avoid. It is likely that the service will be in fact one of the mammoth mass rallies of the kind that Pyongyang is adept at organizing.

Kim Jong-il will have to appear at both the funeral and the rally - and at one or both events he will have to address the North Korean people.

This will be a new experience for him. Until now whenever he gives a speech it is read for him, whether on television or radio. Only once has he been heard shouting in his own voice "Glory to the heroic Korean People's Army ! Long live Kimilsungism !" at the end of a military display in 1992. As far as is known, this is his sole public utterance until now.

So on Wednesday, if not before, the real Kim Jong-il will have to stand up and deliver a speech himself. Should be fail to do that, further speculation on the possible demise of the dynasty is to be expected.

Meanwhile the fact that North Korean propaganda has already resumed attacking South Korea, including personal attacks on President Kim Young-sam, is also politically suggestive. It could indicate that the dynasty is likely to be falling back upon old negative reflexes while it establishes itself. This hardly augurs well for the anticipated North-South summit.

Another explanation could be that one or other of the emerging factions in the ruling elite seeks to gain political advantage through exploiting a hardline posture. Peace on the Korean peninsula is still far from assured.