Free Aceh Movement: A 'political theater' in the making

Free Aceh Movement: A 'political theater' in the making

By Aboeprijadi Santoso

AMSTERDAM (JP): The extended truce until Feb. 15, dubbed
"moratorium on violence", between the Indonesian government and
the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) may be a unique test case for both
Aceh and President Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid's government.

A successful moratorium may lead to a "democratic
consultation" in Aceh, but a failure would be worse for all
sides.

The detailed agenda pinpointed by Indonesia and GAM in Bavois,
Switzerland, as revealed by the Acehnese tabloid Kontras
recently, seems, on the face of it, promising. A social-economic
development will be engineered which should improve the
conditions in Aceh.

Most crucial are the plans to build a new security
arrangement, to start a thorough investigation on human rights
violations and to hold a "democratic consultation" under the
auspices of, and monitored by, international agencies.

Yet both sides will only be committed if they reach some
success in the next round, possibly, from Feb. 12 to 14, in
Switzerland, which in turn depends on the success of the moratorium.

The agenda is "only indicative," both sides said in interviews
with this writer early this week.

"There is nothing certain yet about (it)," said GAM
representative, Zaini Abdullah. "It depends very much on the
situation during the moratorium," the RI chief delegate, Hassan
Wirayudha, concurred.

Nonetheless the fact that both withheld their signatures and
Jakarta needed to review the provisional document at the highest
level suggests that it may be crucial -- unless, of course, it
was purely aimed to buy time.

The agenda, which both sides called "significant progress",
may be viewed as an attempt to build a formula with built-in
modalities to guide the peace process.

In the case of East Timor in the past, it has always been
clear from the outset for all parties, including the East
Timorese who were not represented, that Indonesia and Portugal
should achieve a "just, comprehensive and internationally
acceptable" solution. The "detailed agenda" on Aceh may be just
such a starting point.

"Most significant," Hassan Wirayudha explained, "is the common
understanding that GAM has transformed itself from an armed force
to a political force through a democratic process".

In other words, GAM is expected to renounce violence in return
for a democratic process.

But, just what this "democratic process" is all about is
unclear. "We tried to indicate elements for discussion," Hassan
replied. "In any case, it will neither be a referendum nor
elections toward an independent Aceh."

Zaini Abdullah, too, is adamant as to where the "democratic
consultations" should end up. "Our goal remains an independent
Aceh."

Asked what sort of Acehnese government should result from
these "consultations" i.e. general elections -- an independent
one or one remaining within RI -- the GAM foreman predictably
replied:

"That's the right issue. The principle thing remains for the
Acehnese nation to ask for an independence. We're going that way,
but the method would be a democratic one."

GAM, however, is reluctant to give up its armed struggle. It
"will depend on the situation because the Acehnese are defending
their rights," said Zaini. "Our goal remains independence. So
(the elections), as far as we're concerned, are a process of de-
colonization of a colonized country."

Zaini admitted, though, that, while not excluding other
methods, the main thing now is the democratic method. "Yes, a
democratic path toward independence."

Yet, like Hassan, Zaini could not as yet explain as to how the
elections should be presented to the Acehnese, what government
the electorate will be allowed to choose, how the campaign should
proceed, under what laws and whose auspices, etc.

"It's much too early, and too sensitive, to talk about this,"
said Zaini.

Clearly it is Indonesia's interest to emphasize the importance
of GAM's transformation into a political force and that the
"democratic consultation" will not be an East Timor style
referendum.

Likewise, it is the immediate goal of GAM, which lacks
international supports, to strengthen the international aspects
of the process.

"This (democratic consultation) will be held under the
auspices of international bodies. So the United Nations may be
involved," said Zaini.

"There should a monitoring by a heavy weight international
body so that we cannot be cheated."

But when asked whether GAM is going to become a political
party, Zaini appeared unsure. "If necessary, yes. But, look, the
Acehnese nation has become one political party, so there is no
need to have a political party."

In other words, GAM tends to assume itself being the sole and
legitimate voice of the Acehnese. This (undemocratic) position
will certainly be opposed as Jakarta is about to involve other
Acehnese groups into the talk -- a new approach that would be in
accordance with the agreed democratic spirit of the process.

On the other hand, any reduction, let alone elimination, of
the role of the third (foreign) party -- which the non-
governmental agency Henry Dunant Center plays as facilitator - as
is now proposed by the Coordinating Minister Gen. (ret.) S.B.
Yudhoyono, may endanger the credibility of the peace process
itself, which has been built with pains.

Indonesia and GAM have only just began to explore further
rapprochement based on their respective basic positions. While
GAM seems still reluctant to relinquish its armed force and fight
peacefully as a political party, the Indonesian side should be
serious in her openness.

Many statements by Minister of Defense Mahfud MD have been
called "war monger" by Acehnese mass media and the local police's
"ultimatum" (Maklumat Kapolda) for weapons sweep before Jan. 15,
was seen by GAM as "a war declaration" running against the
moratorium.

In conflict areas such as Aceh, where the central government
has lost a lot of credits, a clear openess rather than an
ambivalent stand is extremely important to keep the peace process
moving.

The case of Northern Ireland has shown that once the peace
process had moved steadily, the military wing of the rebel, the
Irish Republican Army, was increasingly loyal to its political
leadership, the Sinn Fein.

The process, that has taken decades to crystallize, has
resulted in peace, with Sinn Fein now taking parts in the local
government.

Conversely, when the political body of the rebels is losing
its credibility, its military wing could run amok -- as happens
with the Bask separatists in Northern Spain where Herri Batasuna
movement lost its grip on the E.T.A and the latter became a
terrorist group.

In Aceh, the armed force of GAM, AGAM, is loyal to its
political leadership in Sweden, but if GAM starts to loose
influence -- because of its own internal feuds, factionalism and
because of Jakarta's new approach -- then GAM's control of its
military wing and armed symphathisants may in the long run not be
taken for granted.

In short, Jakarta's new approach to turn Aceh into -- to use
Hasan Wirayudha's term -- a "political theater" is not without
great risks.

Indeed, there are more reasons to worry. A total failure of
the moratorium would directly affect the next -- perhaps the last
-- round of RI-GAM talk in Bavois. State military terror, local
unrest, killings and humanitarian problems may continue to plague
Aceh and may in the long run turn the area to become Indonesia's
Northern Ireland.

Again, East Timor is a good lesson. While the devil usually
lies in the details in organizing a popular vote in a conflict
area, the case of East Timor's referendum in 1999, is different.

It was thanks to the thing that was not put in details (i.e.
the security arrangement), that the true Devil came. The New York
May Agreement has in fact given the Indonesian Army almost a
carte blanche, resulting in human rights disaster in September
1999.

President B.J. Habibie and his generals had ignored the
momentum to win back the heart of the Acehnese. President
Abdurrahman Wahid, while offering peace and yet at the same time
facing serious local military crises, has done little to bring
the officers guilty of past atrocities in Aceh to justice.

But it is not too late to prevent the devil's acts from
creating another Timor mayhem in Aceh.

The writer is a journalist, based in Amsterdam, the
Netherlands.