Free Aceh Movement: A 'political theater' in the making

By Aboeprijadi Santoso

AMSTERDAM (JP): The extended truce until Feb. 15, dubbed "moratorium on violence", between the Indonesian government and the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) may be a unique test case for both Aceh and President Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid's government.

A successful moratorium may lead to a "democratic consultation" in Aceh, but a failure would be worse for all sides.

The detailed agenda pinpointed by Indonesia and GAM in Bavois, Switzerland, as revealed by the Acehnese tabloid Kontras recently, seems, on the face of it, promising. A social-economic development will be engineered which should improve the conditions in Aceh.

Most crucial are the plans to build a new security arrangement, to start a thorough investigation on human rights violations and to hold a "democratic consultation" under the auspices of, and monitored by, international agencies.

Yet both sides will only be committed if they reach some success in the next round, possibly, from Feb. 12 to 14, in Switzerland, which in turn depends on the success of the moratorium.

The agenda is "only indicative," both sides said in interviews with this writer early this week.

"There is nothing certain yet about (it)," said GAM representative, Zaini Abdullah. "It depends very much on the situation during the moratorium," the RI chief delegate, Hassan Wirayudha, concurred.

Nonetheless the fact that both withheld their signatures and Jakarta needed to review the provisional document at the highest level suggests that it may be crucial -- unless, of course, it was purely aimed to buy time.

The agenda, which both sides called "significant progress", may be viewed as an attempt to build a formula with built-in modalities to guide the peace process.

In the case of East Timor in the past, it has always been clear from the outset for all parties, including the East Timorese who were not represented, that Indonesia and Portugal should achieve a "just, comprehensive and internationally acceptable" solution. The "detailed agenda" on Aceh may be just such a starting point.

"Most significant," Hassan Wirayudha explained, "is the common understanding that GAM has transformed itself from an armed force to a political force through a democratic process".

In other words, GAM is expected to renounce violence in return for a democratic process.

But, just what this "democratic process" is all about is unclear. "We tried to indicate elements for discussion," Hassan replied. "In any case, it will neither be a referendum nor elections toward an independent Aceh."

Zaini Abdullah, too, is adamant as to where the "democratic consultations" should end up. "Our goal remains an independent Aceh."

Asked what sort of Acehnese government should result from these "consultations" i.e. general elections -- an independent one or one remaining within RI -- the GAM foreman predictably replied:

"That's the right issue. The principle thing remains for the Acehnese nation to ask for an independence. We're going that way, but the method would be a democratic one."

GAM, however, is reluctant to give up its armed struggle. It "will depend on the situation because the Acehnese are defending their rights," said Zaini. "Our goal remains independence. So (the elections), as far as we're concerned, are a process of de- colonization of a colonized country."

Zaini admitted, though, that, while not excluding other methods, the main thing now is the democratic method. "Yes, a democratic path toward independence."

Yet, like Hassan, Zaini could not as yet explain as to how the elections should be presented to the Acehnese, what government the electorate will be allowed to choose, how the campaign should proceed, under what laws and whose auspices, etc.

"It's much too early, and too sensitive, to talk about this," said Zaini.

Clearly it is Indonesia's interest to emphasize the importance of GAM's transformation into a political force and that the "democratic consultation" will not be an East Timor style referendum.

Likewise, it is the immediate goal of GAM, which lacks international supports, to strengthen the international aspects of the process.

"This (democratic consultation) will be held under the auspices of international bodies. So the United Nations may be involved," said Zaini.

"There should a monitoring by a heavy weight international body so that we cannot be cheated."

But when asked whether GAM is going to become a political party, Zaini appeared unsure. "If necessary, yes. But, look, the Acehnese nation has become one political party, so there is no need to have a political party."

In other words, GAM tends to assume itself being the sole and legitimate voice of the Acehnese. This (undemocratic) position will certainly be opposed as Jakarta is about to involve other Acehnese groups into the talk -- a new approach that would be in accordance with the agreed democratic spirit of the process.

On the other hand, any reduction, let alone elimination, of the role of the third (foreign) party -- which the non- governmental agency Henry Dunant Center plays as facilitator - as is now proposed by the Coordinating Minister Gen. (ret.) S.B. Yudhoyono, may endanger the credibility of the peace process itself, which has been built with pains.

Indonesia and GAM have only just began to explore further rapprochement based on their respective basic positions. While GAM seems still reluctant to relinquish its armed force and fight peacefully as a political party, the Indonesian side should be serious in her openness.

Many statements by Minister of Defense Mahfud MD have been called "war monger" by Acehnese mass media and the local police's "ultimatum" (Maklumat Kapolda) for weapons sweep before Jan. 15, was seen by GAM as "a war declaration" running against the moratorium.

In conflict areas such as Aceh, where the central government has lost a lot of credits, a clear openess rather than an ambivalent stand is extremely important to keep the peace process moving.

The case of Northern Ireland has shown that once the peace process had moved steadily, the military wing of the rebel, the Irish Republican Army, was increasingly loyal to its political leadership, the Sinn Fein.

The process, that has taken decades to crystallize, has resulted in peace, with Sinn Fein now taking parts in the local government.

Conversely, when the political body of the rebels is losing its credibility, its military wing could run amok -- as happens with the Bask separatists in Northern Spain where Herri Batasuna movement lost its grip on the E.T.A and the latter became a terrorist group.

In Aceh, the armed force of GAM, AGAM, is loyal to its political leadership in Sweden, but if GAM starts to loose influence -- because of its own internal feuds, factionalism and because of Jakarta's new approach -- then GAM's control of its military wing and armed symphathisants may in the long run not be taken for granted.

In short, Jakarta's new approach to turn Aceh into -- to use Hasan Wirayudha's term -- a "political theater" is not without great risks.

Indeed, there are more reasons to worry. A total failure of the moratorium would directly affect the next -- perhaps the last -- round of RI-GAM talk in Bavois. State military terror, local unrest, killings and humanitarian problems may continue to plague Aceh and may in the long run turn the area to become Indonesia's Northern Ireland.

Again, East Timor is a good lesson. While the devil usually lies in the details in organizing a popular vote in a conflict area, the case of East Timor's referendum in 1999, is different.

It was thanks to the thing that was not put in details (i.e. the security arrangement), that the true Devil came. The New York May Agreement has in fact given the Indonesian Army almost a carte blanche, resulting in human rights disaster in September 1999.

President B.J. Habibie and his generals had ignored the momentum to win back the heart of the Acehnese. President Abdurrahman Wahid, while offering peace and yet at the same time facing serious local military crises, has done little to bring the officers guilty of past atrocities in Aceh to justice.

But it is not too late to prevent the devil's acts from creating another Timor mayhem in Aceh.

The writer is a journalist, based in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.