Four-way talks on Asian security more than a pipe dream

By Edward Neilan

Summit among U.S., Japan, China and Russia would remove some lingering cobwebs at century's end.

TOKYO (JP): The concept of a four-way summit on Asian security issues among the United States, Japan, China and Russia is extremely attractive and reasonable.

The fact that it makes so much sense is a main reason why it will be difficult to realize, according to a consensus of diplomats and analysts on the fringes of last weekend's meeting at the Kawana Hotel, Shizuoka Prefecture, between Russian President Boris Yeltsin and Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto.

The only thing possibly more difficult, these observers say, is getting Russia and Japan together over the Northern Islands issue. Russian sentiment is just not prepared for any "deals" at the moment. When the suggestion was made that Japan's proposal -- sovereignty now, transition and Russian administration for a period -- sounded like Hong Kong's "one country, two systems," a Russian reporter quipped "It would be more like two countries, no system."

How the Japanese Foreign Ministry managed to arrange for Yeltsin to catch two fish and Hashimoto none in a short trip afloat last Sunday is beyond me.

It will take similar magic to pull off a meaningful four-way summit, although the merits of such a meeting in terms of transparency and reassurance of Asian populations is obvious. The downside of such a gathering, particularly to those nations preoccupied with political leverage, include the kinds of problems which diplomats were hired to address in the first place.

The four-way summit idea has been around for awhile but it re- surfaced through Japanese government "sources" on the eve of the Yeltsin visit.

Asked about such a four-nation security dialogue, Hashimoto told reporters April 16: "The idea is still not a concrete one. But such a security summit would be a natural development. I would say that the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum (APEC) gatherings would be the most suitable occasions for such a meeting."

The next APEC meeting is scheduled for November in the Malaysian capital of Kuala Lumpur.

Foreign Minister Keizo Obuchi, in his February foreign policy speech in the Diet, advanced the possibility of convening such a four-nation dialogue to discuss various issues.

The Japanese government says quietly it will pursue the matter and scorekeepers should take note so that critics who say Japan never proposes anything may be kept informed.

Such a meeting would be a good way for these powers to approach 2000.

After all, each of the four has been the battlefield or Cold War enemy of each of the others during the century that is just concluding.

China is expected to be the most strenuous opponent to such an idea. When the four-power summit idea was floated at academic seminars in Shanghai which I attended last November, it was suggested that for the moment China was more interested in improving respective bilateral ties.

There is a strong opinion in Chinese think tank circles that any settlement of the Korean Peninsula dilemma must accommodate China's preferences. That is why Beijing agreed to join four-way talks on Korea with the United States and South and North Korea.

But with one eye on a map of the region and another on a good history book, can anyone imagine a Korean settlement that does not include the opinions and implied cooperation of Japan and Russia?

China is likewise nervous about the new U.S.-Japan defense guidelines with respect to Taiwan, which China regards as a "renegade province." The last thing China wants raised at a four-nation summit would be questions about Taiwan Strait security. Such talk would easily lap over other touchy issues such as the Spratly Islands of Southeast Asia and the Diaoyutai or Senkaku islands in northeast Asia.

At least some of the Shanghai analysts say China's opposition to non-binding four-way talks could be eased depending on the outcome of two higher-priority events: the June visit of U.S. President Bill Clinton to China and the September visit of China's President Jiang Zemin to Japan.

Russia, as well as Japan, would have everything to gain and nothing to lose through such talks. Moscow recently became a member of APEC, with Japan's support. Realization of a four-way summit, however informal, would demonstrate Japanese leadership of the type that would stand Tokyo in good stead as it seeks to become a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council.

The United States, which has yet to spell out its agenda for Asia in a comprehensive way, might go along with a first-round of four-way talks. Washington is the only party among the four without territorial claims in Asia.

However, the U.S. does have treaties with Japan and the Republic of Korea.