Forewarned is forearmed

It can only be taken as proof of the much-diminished credibility of the administration of President Abdurrahman Wahid that assurances given over the weekend have done little to calm the fear that exists among the public of massive unrest erupting on Monday, when the House of Representatives begins its first session of the new year following an extended recess.

The President's opponents, so it was rumored during the past week, were planning to use the momentum of the legislature's first session of the year to hold huge streets demonstrations to pressure the President to step down -- a demand that has been gathering strength in the past weeks. No less a personage than Minister of Defense Mohamad Mahfud has warned that the government "is aware" of plans to hold massive street demonstrations on Monday, with the purpose of destabilizing the government through a repeat of the riots of May 1998, in which over an estimated 1,000 people lost their lives.

Adding to the credibility of these rumors is the fact that Jan. 15 also happens to be the anniversary of major upheavals that rocked the Indonesian capital 26 years ago.

At that time, what began as rather small-scale anti-Japanese student demonstrations exploded into some of the worst rioting Jakarta has seen. The reason why the demonstrations took such an ugly turn remains a mystery, although manipulation by military intelligence is suspected by many.

The present rumors, for whatever they are worth, have been enough to move Gus Dur's supporters to respond by calling on their own people to close ranks and defend the beleaguered President.

Thousands of Gus Dur supporters -- mainly members of the Banser organization, who are trained in the martial arts -- are said to be in Jakarta. Coming from as far as Surabaya in East Java, and disregarding the President's call to his supporters not to converge on the capital, they are rumored to be ready to confront the President's opponents at the first sign that a mass movement against Gus Dur is in the making.

In the face of all this, the government seems to be prepared for whatever exigencies might arise. At strategic points in the city the police presence has been strengthened. An instruction has been issued to police officers in the field to shoot anyone trying to instigate a riot. A few days earlier, the Army made a public display of its readiness to cope with any emergency that might arise.

Nevertheless, a few points of concern remain. Chief among them is that neither the police nor the military have shown themselves to be particularly adept at forestalling trouble. In other words, the intelligence gathering capabilities of our security forces seem to be at an all-time low. Even obviously well-planned and well-organized terrorist attacks, such as the Christmas Eve bombings, remained undetected.

The problem is that the possibility of unrest and violence will always be with us as long as Indonesians remain unable to outgrow their political immaturity and shed their penchant for settling political differences by mobilizing the masses. So long as the political situation remains unstable, there will always be the possibility of rogue elements trying to fish in troubled waters.

This time around, however, it looks as if the authorities have the situation well in hand. At the least, the authorities should be able to localize any outbreaks of violence that might erupt. For Jakarta's citizenry, now is the time to give the authorities complete support. This they can do by not allowing themselves to be provoked, thereby effectively forestalling any chance of a repeat of the tragedies of Jan. 15, 1974, and May 12 and May 13, 1998. Forewarned is forearmed.