Forecasting earthquakes and tidal waves is a no win game

JAKARTA (JP): In the absence of any technology that can predict the occurrence of earthquakes and tidal waves, Indonesia should at least take steps to prevent massive destruction or minimize the casualty rates.

Geophysicist Prof. M.T. Zen, who is deputy chairman of the Agency for Application of Research and Technology (BPPT), said developed countries have spent billions of dollars to find a way to predict natural disasters in advance but to no avail.

Zen doubted that a reliable tool to forecast disasters will be discovered in the foreseeable future.

"Earthquakes and tidal waves are two natural events that occur in accordance with the laws of nature," he told reporters yesterday in giving his assessment of last week's killer tidal waves in East Java that claimed over 200 lives.

In December 1992 more than 2,000 people were killed when earthquake-triggered tidal waves struck Nusa Tenggara province.

Zen said the strength or height of tidal waves are not determined by the magnitude of the earthquake but more by the configuration of the coastline.

He said the southern coasts of Flores, Sumbawa, Lombok, Bali and Java and the western coasts of Sumatra are very prone to tidal waves because of their proximity to the earthquake zone along the floor of the Indian Ocean.

Zen said Indonesia could take preventive measures.

People living in areas prone to tidal waves and quakes should be informed of the dangers and they should be compelled to build quake-resistant houses. The government should also strictly enforce zoning regulations.

People living in areas prone to tidal waves could monitor any occurrence of a tidal wave by establishing a tower on waters near to their settlement area, he said.

Developed countries are now using satellites to monitor tidal waves, which allow them to send warnings to people living in the coastal areas.

Zen the government is currently considering to establish a national committee specially to handle natural disasters.

The committee will involve the BPPT, the Directorate General of Geology and Mineral Natural Resources, the Meteorology and Geophysics Agency and other related institutions.

It is expected to provide information on possible natural disasters and conduct researches on natural disasters caused by tidal waves, volcanic eruptions, and earthquakes. (rms)