Focusing on population trends in Japan

By Hussain Khan

TOKYO: At the start of the millennium this year, a number of predictions appeared in various newspapers regarding future global trends. One interesting and important topic concerns population trends in advanced countries.

Last century, as we all know, the world experienced a population explosion. Advanced countries successfully limited this problem by promoting various birth control methods. This helped these countries raise their economic growth rates. Limiting the number of babies to two or three enabled families to enjoy all the benefits of modern life and maintain a higher standard of living. Birth rates decreased in almost all advanced countries, including Japan, the United States and most European nations.

But the dawning of the new millennium has made many people aware of the repercussions of this policy. Take the example of Japan. In a recent editorial in the Sankei newspaper, some interesting statistics regarding population trends in Japan were provided. The birth rate is continuously declining and has now reached its lowest level of 1.34 births per woman. Under the present social and economic conditions, there is no hope that the present declining trend is going to discontinue or reverse in near future.

Supposing that it even maintains at least the present level, the report states: "By the end of this century, Japan's population will shrink nearly one-third to just over 40 million people. If it remains unchanged for 1,000 years, then only 83 Japanese will be left." It predicts that the present population of about 120 million is going to shrink to one-third of its current level within just one century, which is a very short space of time in the history of nations.

It is indeed an alarming prospect that Japan's population of over 80 million people could be wiped out forever during a short span of only one century. It means that, based on these statistics, the entire Japanese population will be wiped out before the advent of the third millennium

In early history, nations perished as a result of some great natural disaster, such as an earthquake or flood, or from epidemic diseases and wars. According to Toynbee, a British historian famous for his 23-volume work, A Study of History, several great civilizations of the past have perished and have left not even a trace of their great existence.

But the 21st century has brought forth a new way of decimating today's advanced nations. Geographically, the countries will remain, but the people living in those countries will not be the descendants of today's advanced nations. According to one scenario, they may be the descendants of today's immigrants from the developing countries.

The Sankei daily states, "The United Nations has pointed out that Japan will need to accept 600,000 foreign workers annually if it is to maintain its current labor pool." A similar trend can be predicted for other advanced countries of the world facing a decline in birth rates.

America is said to be a land of immigrants. It first started with the British settlers. Now it is a land of immigrants from all over the world. The descendants of today's American citizens will be wiped out. The new immigrants who will be entering from developing countries will occupy the place of the present advanced nations, if they stand by their conservative religious beliefs of the developing countries to treat children as a gift of God.

Almost all advanced countries of today practice some sort of family planning by birth control. It all started after a British economist, Malthus, alarmed the world by introducing a formula comparing population increase and the development of means of production. He predicted that population increases in the future would be in geometric progression, such as 2, 4, 16, (16X16=) 256, (256X256=) to 65,536. Meanwhile the means of production would increase in arithmetic progression like 2,4,8,16,32,64,128. His predictions soon proved wrong.

Soon after the Malthus prediction, the Industrial Revolution started in England and rapidly spread to many other advanced countries. This developed the means of production much faster than the population explosion that was feared by Malthus.

Such population shrinkage will not be confined to Japan alone. The same scenario could be applied to almost all advanced nations of the world today. Like Japan, they have achieved prosperity by curtailing birth rates.

If these trends continue, then gradually their populations too may diminish by up to two-thirds within the next century. Of the remaining one third, another two-thirds or more would disappear in the following century. This would leave only 10 percent of the present population of these countries remaining by the end of the 22nd century. According to this formula, by the 23rd century only 3 percent would remain, and by the 24th century only 1 percent of the existing population would remain on the world map.

All of these calculations are based on the assumption that current birth rates in these countries are maintained. Considering, however, the rapid decline of birth rates, it is highly unlikely that birth rates will be maintained at these levels. If this decline continues as expected, it is inevitable that all of today's advanced nations will be wiped from the face of the earth within the next few centuries.

The writer is a free-lance journalist reporting from Japan.

-- The Korea Herald/Asia News Network