Fight against terrorism is far from over

Dmitry Kosyrev, Political Analyst, RIA Novosti, Moscow

If the situation in the so-called international counter-terror coalition were normal, the explosions on the Indonesian resort island of Bali could have become a subject of serious discussion by the allies, who drafted plans of restoring order in Afghanistan a year ago. But is the coalition alive yet or have the U.S. plans of launching an all-out war against Iraq have torn it to smithereens? And what should the countries that are facing the choice between helping the U.S. in its war on Iraq, a war whose goals and motives are questionable, and focusing attention on a quite real and growing terrorist threat nearby, do?

Australia is one of these countries. It was believed in the past few weeks that Canberra supported the U.S. plans with regard to Iraq as enthusiastically as Britain does. In fact, the list of enthusiasts was limited to these three countries. Other countries, such as Bahrain and Kuwait, speak about their involvement in the war on Iraq with great unwillingness and will demand a great deal for their contribution. But now Canberra must decide if it should fight against a Muslim country in the far- away Middle East when the threat of Muslim extremism has moved very close to Australia's door?

That the bulk of victims in the Bali disco clubs are Australians was not quite a coincidence. The terrorists clearly directed their blow, above all, at the government of Indonesia and its tourist industry, with the white people as mere victims. But there are more Australian than any other tourists in Indonesia and South East Asia as a whole, simply because of Australia's proximity to the region. Australia is certainly not the U.S. but the rise of terrorism in the region is directly threatening Australia not only as a U.S. ally. Relations between Canberra and Jakarta have never been very good and they deteriorated when Canberra supported the secession of East Timor from Indonesia in 1999.

So, Australians are favorite targets for local terrorists. Besides, quite a few Indonesian immigrants live on the fifth continent and it is quite easy for terrorists to work among them, if they wish to do this. If Canberra decides to support the U.S. war on Iraq, the question will be as good as settled. Bush is far away but Australia and Australians are close targets.

Who are the main suspects in the Bali terrorist acts? It has become fashionable to blame everything on Jemaah Islamiyah, an umbrella group that is operating throughout the region, in particular in Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and the Philippines. It is an umbrella group because unlike purely local Islamic zealots, Jemaah was set up in 1999 as the key regional structure of the international terrorist web centered around al-Qaeda.

Its task was to coordinate the local jihad fighters and guarantee centralized deliveries of weapons and money to them. Omar al-Farouk, an al-Qaeda agent responsible in the organization for South East Asia who has been recently detained by the Americans, revealed many details about the Jemaah. It was his testimony that prompted the Americans to close embassies in several Southeast Asian countries a month ago, a year after the September 11 tragedy in the U.S. The detained terrorist said lorries loaded with explosives would be blown up at these embassies. The explosives have not been found and were probably used to stage terrorist acts in Bali.

The problems of Indonesian President Megawati Soekarnoputri are very similar to the problems of his Pakistani colleague, Pervez Musharraf. It is a risky undertaking to clamp down on local Islamists in a country with most Islamic population -- nearly hopeless if risked without international assistance. It may cost the president his chair at best and possibly lead to chaos and violence is several cities. As if chaos and violence have been in short supply there.

In short, South East Asia should be cleansed of local terrorist organizations. The war will not help. A long and painstaking work is needed that calls for international efforts and funds. Central Asia and Pakistan (where the recent elections registered an incredible growth of the influence of local jihad fighters) need the same medicine. And the situation in Afghanistan, where the fight against terrorism began in the first place, is not optimistic either. Not to mention the recent terrorist act against U.S. servicemen in Kuwait or the explosion of the Limbourg supertanker off Yemen. Even the richest and strongest countries of the world have problems.

Of course, the world could have left Afghanistan and bin Laden alone a year ago. We could have waited until friends of the Taliban seized power in Tajikistan or Pakistan or in some of their provinces, and more skyscrapers crumbled down in the U.S. But since the war has begun, we must not stop it now; we must not leave individual countries alone in their struggle against the rearing terrorist snakes. And, most importantly, the fight against terrorism must not be replaced with a war launched to resolve the problems of American economy, in particular oil prices and control of the Middle East, something which the Bush administration is trying to do now.