Fears of postelection violence on the rise

Fears of postelection violence on the rise

JAKARTA (JP): Experts have warned that Indonesia's only hope
to prevent mass riots from happening in the country in the
postpresidential election period is to appoint a new credible
government.

Economists and social and political experts suggested at a
gathering over the weekend that, out of the three presidential
candidates, appointing the most popular, Megawati Soekarnoputri,
as the next president would minimize the risk of the country
falling into widespread civil unrest and disintegration.

"There are so many people who no longer have trust in the
(President B.J. Habibie) government... I've warned (the
military) that (if Habibie is reelected) this demonstration will
become even greater and they (the military) will not be able to
control it," former head of the Armed Forces Intelligence (BIA)
Lt. Gen. (ret) Syamsir Siregar told the gathering.

"But the most dangerous thing will be a disintegration of this
nation if Habibie retains power," Siregar added.

Jakarta was quiet on Saturday as demonstrators did not return
to the streets following the two-day violent protest demanding
the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), the country's highest
legislative body, to not pick Habibie as the next president at
Wednesday's election.

Hasyim Wahid, a top aide of Megawati's, conceded, but said
there were also forces outside political parties influencing
their supporters to create riots and unrest.

"There are external forces, but I can't say who they are,"
Hasyim said.

He said in five cities with strong Indonesia Democratic Party
of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) supporters, he found 150 non-
Indonesian Military (TNI) high quality guns, which cost some Rp
26 million each on the market, were owned by ordinary citizens.

"This is not small money (for ordinary people). This kind of
deployment started six months ago," he added.

Economist Muhamad Ichsan of the prestigious University of
Indonesia said the country's crisis-hit economy would further
deteriorate if Habibie was reelected because of an absence of
confidence in the economy.

"Confidence is very crucial. Confidence can only be restored
by a new credible government," he added.

Ichsan explained a credible and legitimate government was
needed to assure people that the country must take part in
painful economic reform programs, including making the difficult
choice of eliminating subsidies to lift itself out of the current
economic crisis.

"If people have no trust in the government, the painful
programs cannot be implemented," he said.

He said Habibie had no such credibility because he had not
made any serious efforts to combat corruption as he promised when
he first assumed power last year from his political mentor,
former president Soeharto.

"This (fighting against corruption) is actually a symbol to
boost confidence," he said.

"No matter how difficult the situation is, if the (president)
figure can be trusted, the economy will not collapse," he added.

The 700-member MPR will pick Indonesia's next president on
Wednesday from the existing candidates: Habibie, Megawati and
Abdurrahman Wahid, also known as Gus Dur, a charismatic chairman
of the Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), the country's largest Muslim social
organization.

The MPR consists of a 500-member legislature and 200
appointees.

PDI Perjuangan was the winner of the June legislative
election, but only gained a 34 percent vote, which translated
into 153 seats at the House of Representatives (DPR) or
legislature.

Gus Dur was nominated by the "axis force," an alliance of
mostly small Muslim-based political parties.

Habibie was nominated by the Golkar Party, the runner-up in
the recent election with 120 seats.

In a bid to gain the support of the military, which has 38
nonelected seats in the legislature, Habibie and Golkar have
picked Indonesian Military Commander Gen. Wiranto as the vice
presidential candidate. Wiranto has yet to confirm whether he
will accept or reject the offer.

"Wiranto must reject the offer or people will have more
antipathy toward the military," Siregar said.

"The condition of the TNI is very concerning ... the TNI is
now deaf because it no longer listens to the public's voice. It's
also blind and dumb because it can neither see nor speak the
truth," he said.

"But I expect the military will return to (protect) the
public," he added.

Pressures for Habibie to withdraw from the presidential
election have intensified, particularly after he delivered his
accountability speech on Thursday, which gained widespread
disapproval.

Golkar chairman Akbar Tanjung said the party would have to
reconsider Habibie's nomination if the majority of the MPR
rejects his accountability speech.

Siregar, as well as the two other experts, said they could not
predict who would win the presidential election.

They also warned turbulence would not necessarily disappear if
either Megawati or Gus Dur were elected.

"In the short-term yes, but in the long-term I'm not sure,"
Hasyim said.

"I think the market will still have to see who will be the
economic team of the new government," Ichsan noted. (rei)