Fears of postelection violence on the rise

JAKARTA (JP): Experts have warned that Indonesia's only hope to prevent mass riots from happening in the country in the postpresidential election period is to appoint a new credible government.

Economists and social and political experts suggested at a gathering over the weekend that, out of the three presidential candidates, appointing the most popular, Megawati Soekarnoputri, as the next president would minimize the risk of the country falling into widespread civil unrest and disintegration.

"There are so many people who no longer have trust in the (President B.J. Habibie) government... I've warned (the military) that (if Habibie is reelected) this demonstration will become even greater and they (the military) will not be able to control it," former head of the Armed Forces Intelligence (BIA) Lt. Gen. (ret) Syamsir Siregar told the gathering.

"But the most dangerous thing will be a disintegration of this nation if Habibie retains power," Siregar added.

Jakarta was quiet on Saturday as demonstrators did not return to the streets following the two-day violent protest demanding the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), the country's highest legislative body, to not pick Habibie as the next president at Wednesday's election.

Hasyim Wahid, a top aide of Megawati's, conceded, but said there were also forces outside political parties influencing their supporters to create riots and unrest.

"There are external forces, but I can't say who they are," Hasyim said.

He said in five cities with strong Indonesia Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) supporters, he found 150 non- Indonesian Military (TNI) high quality guns, which cost some Rp 26 million each on the market, were owned by ordinary citizens.

"This is not small money (for ordinary people). This kind of deployment started six months ago," he added.

Economist Muhamad Ichsan of the prestigious University of Indonesia said the country's crisis-hit economy would further deteriorate if Habibie was reelected because of an absence of confidence in the economy.

"Confidence is very crucial. Confidence can only be restored by a new credible government," he added.

Ichsan explained a credible and legitimate government was needed to assure people that the country must take part in painful economic reform programs, including making the difficult choice of eliminating subsidies to lift itself out of the current economic crisis.

"If people have no trust in the government, the painful programs cannot be implemented," he said.

He said Habibie had no such credibility because he had not made any serious efforts to combat corruption as he promised when he first assumed power last year from his political mentor, former president Soeharto.

"This (fighting against corruption) is actually a symbol to boost confidence," he said.

"No matter how difficult the situation is, if the (president) figure can be trusted, the economy will not collapse," he added.

The 700-member MPR will pick Indonesia's next president on Wednesday from the existing candidates: Habibie, Megawati and Abdurrahman Wahid, also known as Gus Dur, a charismatic chairman of the Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), the country's largest Muslim social organization.

The MPR consists of a 500-member legislature and 200 appointees.

PDI Perjuangan was the winner of the June legislative election, but only gained a 34 percent vote, which translated into 153 seats at the House of Representatives (DPR) or legislature.

Gus Dur was nominated by the "axis force," an alliance of mostly small Muslim-based political parties.

Habibie was nominated by the Golkar Party, the runner-up in the recent election with 120 seats.

In a bid to gain the support of the military, which has 38 nonelected seats in the legislature, Habibie and Golkar have picked Indonesian Military Commander Gen. Wiranto as the vice presidential candidate. Wiranto has yet to confirm whether he will accept or reject the offer.

"Wiranto must reject the offer or people will have more antipathy toward the military," Siregar said.

"The condition of the TNI is very concerning ... the TNI is now deaf because it no longer listens to the public's voice. It's also blind and dumb because it can neither see nor speak the truth," he said.

"But I expect the military will return to (protect) the public," he added.

Pressures for Habibie to withdraw from the presidential election have intensified, particularly after he delivered his accountability speech on Thursday, which gained widespread disapproval.

Golkar chairman Akbar Tanjung said the party would have to reconsider Habibie's nomination if the majority of the MPR rejects his accountability speech.

Siregar, as well as the two other experts, said they could not predict who would win the presidential election.

They also warned turbulence would not necessarily disappear if either Megawati or Gus Dur were elected.

"In the short-term yes, but in the long-term I'm not sure," Hasyim said.

"I think the market will still have to see who will be the economic team of the new government," Ichsan noted. (rei)